The Toronto Maple Leafs Don't Regret Letting Zach Hyman Go
There has been a lot of converation this week about the Toronto Maple Leafs and former player Zach Hyman.
As you may have heard, Zach Hyman and the Edmonton Oilers are playing for the Stanley Cup right now, after Hyman scored 54 goals this season and has 14 and counting so far in the playoffs.
Since the Leafs didn't sign him, the narrative is that they made a huge mistake and are currently living in a state of regret.
This couldn't be further from the truth.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Made the Right Decision to Let Hyman Walk
If you know how to play poker, then doubless you have run into a situation where a new player who doesn't know how to play cleans up against experienced players even though they are making the wrong play every time.
All in with pocket 2's. Calling a huge bet with a middle-pin straight draw, etc.
In a game of chance, the best players play the odds, but even when you make a good bet, there is a chance that you will lose. For example, it's a smart move to make a bet that you think will win 70% of the time, but you have to live with the fact you will be wrong 30% of the time and bets will have a much smaller chance of paying off than 70%.
To manage this problem, a good poker player tries to only make bets where the pot odds give better odds than the gambling odds. If you always make the "right" bet, you have a chande or being a long-term winner (i,e most gamblers eventually give back whatever they win, but the rarely seen long-term winner doesn't).
In hockey, it's much the same as poker: if you always make the 'right' decision, over time you will come out ahead.
When Zach Hyman was a free-agent the Leafs were asked to give an eight year contract doubling the salary of a player with two bad knees, who was approaching 30, and who had a history of failing to score in the playoffs.
NHL players, as a rule, get worse, not better, after the age of 28.
NHL players, as a rule, who have had significant injuries to their knees represent high-injury risks. In a cap league, where the winning team is often the healthiest team, this is a significant consideration.
Finally, if you wrote out a list of all the players who had a career high of 21 goals at the age of 28 that went on to score 50 goals, I'm pretty sure that would be an extremely short list.
In retrospect, knowing what we know now, signing Zach Hyman was a no-brainer. However, it was just as much of a no-brainer back then to let him walk. Signing Zach Hyman to a 7 year $5.5 million cap-hit deal at the age or 28 was extremely risky for the Edmonton Oilers.
The fact that it worked out for them is awesome. I am a huge Zach Hyman fan and the Oilers are the team I cheer for after the Leafs. But, they won the lottery. They made a bad bet that paid off.
The Leafs made one of the few smart plays in the history of their franchise, and as is the Leafy Way, it blew up in their faces.
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Good for the Oilers, bad for the Leafs. But as any Poker player knows, if you aren't willing to risk laying down a big hand, you'll never ever win, and even if you win when you bet all your money on a risky draw you won't be able to do so consistantly.