The Toronto Maple Leafs Are Now Paying the Price For Their Lack of Foresight
Regrettable trades, poor player development, a changing identity, and bad luck have all contributed to the Leafs current plight. As their best players reach their prime years, they have multiple holes to fill and limited options.
For a team with championship aspirations, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a lot of needs. Goaltending and defense top the list.
The Florida Panthers clinical march to the brink of a Stanley Cup victory has shown the importance of suffocating the opposition. They have neutralized some of the best offensive teams in the NHL during their postseason run.
By comparison, the Toronto Maple Leafs are on the hunt for a goaltender to pair with the talented, but unreliable Joseph Woll. They also need at least two top-four defenders to fill out a very thin blue line.
The Leafs have lots of holes to fill. Their lack of foresight plus numerous other issues have restricted the options to bolster the roster around Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner in their prime years.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Are Now Paying the Price For Their Lack of Foresight
The Maple Leafs are approaching the end of their "Core 4" era, with a year remaining on the contracts of Marner and John Tavares.
The Leafs went all-in with skill and offense when Brendan Shanahan and former GM Kyle Dubas decided to sign free-agent Tavares. His signing, plus later contracts to Matthews, Nylander, and Marner, devoted much of the team's salary cap space to the forwards.
Morgan Rielly was and continues to be, the only long-term significant commitment to a defenseman or goalie.
The high salaries for few players combined with no-movement clauses has left the Leafs with little cap space flexibility to get into the likely bidding wars for the best available defensemen in this year's free agency.
Should the Leafs want to look for a proven, veteran goalie via trade, they must navigate around approaching someone like Marner about rescinding his no-movement clause. It's a sensitive situation.
Their defense consists of Rielly and Jake McCabe and little else. The team's best young prospects play forward.
How did the Maple Leafs get in this predicament and how can they fix it before it's too late?
The Leafs Search For a Top Goalie Continues
The Maple Leafs general manager before Dubas, Lou Lameriello, recognized that a goalie was needed to stabilize a young team. He acquired goaltender Frederik Andersen from the Anaheim Ducks in 2016.
Andersen had some good moments as Leaf, but untimely, soft goals during the playoffs were his undoing. He moved on to the Carolina Hurricanes as a free agent.
Next, came Jack Campbell, who was acquired through trade from the Los Angeles Kings. The Leafs gambled that they could help the former first-round pick (11th overall in 2010) reach his potential and become a number-one goalie.
Campbell became a fan favorite for the Maple Leafs, but he too let in too many questionable goals,
none more backbreaking than Game 7 versus the Montreal Canadiens in 2021.
The Leafs wisely moved on from Campbell and let him sign with the Edmonton Oilers in free agency.
The team's pattern of betting on the upside of a young goalie from outside the organization continued with Ilya Samsonov. The Leafs signed Samsonov to back-to-back 1-year deals, but inconsistency ruled his tenure. He is not likely to return next season.
It has left the Maple Leafs with few options. One, they could take a huge risk and trade a talent like Marner to acquire someone they hope will solidify their goaltending. Two, they let Woll handle the load with his significant history of injuries. Neither is ideal.
The Leafs have a long history of goaltenders who led underdog teams to upset series victories in the playoffs. Felix Potvin, Curtis Joseph, and Ed Belfour had many moments of postseason brilliance.
Now, with a talent-laden roster among the best in franchise history, the Leafs are still searching for a stud goalie to pair with it.
The Panthers, meanwhile, signed Sergei Bobrovsky to a monster free-agent contract well before they were considered title contenders. They are now reaping the benefits.
Finding a reliable, starting goaltender is not the only area where the Maple Leafs have erred.
Trade Misses, Player Development, and Bad Luck Also to Blame
The Leafs aren't completely handcuffed, but multiple other matters have brought them to their current state.
First, the team has few prospects as a result of trades. Deadline deals for veterans Nick Foligno and Ryan O'Reilly didn't work out. Other win-now moves have left the Leafs with few first-round picks and minimal blue-chip prospects.
A lack of player development has also hindered the Leafs. They have hit on most of their first-round picks. The promise and impact of second-rounders Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson, and Fraser Minten will be determined.
Detrimental to the team's success has been finding late-round gems. Also, first-round picks of defensemen Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin have not panned out and the Maple Leafs are now left looking for help on defense.
Despite having more resources than any team in the NHL, the Leafs can't develop players like other top organizations. Bobby McMann and Pierre Engvall are the only recent unheralded players the Maple Leafs have developed and turned into regular contributors.
The Leafs have also been a victim of misfortune on defense. Jake Muzzin, acquired through trade earlier in the Matthews era, was felled by a career-ending injury.
A final snag to the team's success has been sticking with an identity. They've fluctuated between trying to win with offense during earlier years to a more traditional approach built around defensive structure and physical play.
Every team would love players who can do it all, but the Leafs haven't found the right balance. They have straddled the line and refused to stick with an identity.
How Can the Leafs Fix Their Roster?
No-movement clauses and a lack of assets curb the Leafs ability to make trades to address their weaknesses. Plus, it's high risk, especially related to goaltending. They would have to move their best prospects, Knies or Easton Cowan, to get any significant return.
Their best route is to aim at this year's free-agent market to aid the defense. The Leafs biggest offer should be for one of the top available defensemen: Brandon Montour, Nikita Zadorov, or Brady Skjei.
Gamble that Woll and a couple of veterans on short-term deals can get you through the upcoming season. In 2025, better goalie options will be available in free agency. The Leafs will have money available with an increasing salary cap and the expiring contracts of Marner and Tavares.
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The plight of the Toronto Maple Leafs is not completely hopeless. Yet, the next two off-seasons are paramount for the team to take advantage of their best players' prime years.