The Leverage Rests With Marner Thanks to No-Movement Clause
The no-movement clause in Marner's current contract with the Leafs gives him something that all players strive for, control.
He will undoubtedly be peppered with questions about his situation the next time he addresses the Toronto media. That may not be a comfortable setting, but Marner is used to the fish bowl surrounding the Leafs.
Once that is dealt with he can get on with the task at hand, playing to his usual level. Do that and another wealthy contract is ensured.
The biggest risk for Marner is a serious injury, but unless it is career-threatening, it won't affect his next deal. An injury won't deter teams from offering him a big-money deal thanks to his past production with many more fruitful years to come.
His supposed lack of playoff production, even though it's on par with both Matthews and Nylander, also won't scare potential suitors away. Most will believe they can bring out the best in Marner come springtime.
Waiting is the Best Option For Marner and the Leafs
Waiting it out is the best option for both Marner and the Maple Leafs. Marner can test the free-agent market and confirm his value. As of right now, the Leafs will not get an equal return for a player of Marner's stature.
The team gets another year of his services along with Matthews and Nylander, which is better than a diminished return in a trade.
Both the team and the player can revisit a new contract after next season. Should Marner have a great year, the Leafs can afford to increase their offer with the contract of John Tavares coming off the books. Plus, the NHL salary cap is expected to increase once again.
Then, a new deal for Marner with an AAV between Matthews' $13.25 million and Nylander's $11.5 million would be more than fair. An AAV for Marner at $12-12.5 million would take up a similar salary-cap percentage to Tavares' expiring contract and leave the Leafs room to supplement the rest of the roster.
Marner's self-professed love of playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs would be tested. If he chose to walk away, despite a fair proposal, the Leafs can use the cap space and reinforce the lineup through trades or free agency.
If Marner accepts a new Leafs deal a year from now, he will have earned it through his play. Slotting him in somewhere between Matthews and Nylander is appropriate and he could continue playing for the team he loves.
For everyone involved, it's worth the wait.