Testing Free Agency is a Smart Business Move by Mitch Marner
A report suggests the Leafs star right-winger plans to play out the final season of his contract and let the chips fall where they may. It's a wise move by Marner and his agent.
Recently, word came out that Mitch Marner plans to play out the final season of his contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
It was the latest chapter of the Toronto Maple Leafs most prominent storyline from their current offseason. Like any good story, it will evolve and take many more twists and turns before its denouement.
The report confirms speculation that Marner's agent, Darren Ferris, wants to see his client hit free agency. It's a smart business move since Marner has much to gain with little risk.
Thanks to a no-movement clause from his last deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Marner has all the leverage. Let's break down the different scenarios that can play out over the next year.
Marner Has Become the Scapegoat For What Ails the Leafs
First, a little history that brought the team and Marner to this point.
After another playoff disappointment, Marner became the poster boy for all that was wrong with the Leafs. Both Auston Matthews and William Nylander had shining moments during the Maple Leafs first-round loss against the Boston Bruins.
Matthews was dominant in a Game 2 Leafs victory that leveled the series and Nylander scored both goals in a Game 6 victory that forced a Game 7.
Matthews missed games against Boston because of injury and sickness while Nylander missed the start of the series, suffering through migraines. That, combined with the long-term extensions that each signed during the year, minimized their responsibility, in the eyes of many, for another Leafs postseason failure.
Marner played the entire series versus Boston but failed to make an impact on the scoresheet. He's paid to produce offensively, but he was asked to play a defensive role against the Bruins. He was also coming off a late-season suspected high-ankle sprain.
Despite that, blame was pointed in the direction of Marner. Before and after the firing of coach Sheldon Keefe, attention has been placed on the Leafs star winger as the piece that must move to significantly change the core of the Maple Leafs roster.
His contract is up a year from now. Marner has publicly stated he wants to remain in Toronto and now comes the news that he wants to play out the remaining year of his deal and hit free agency.
It's a savvy move, with most of the possible scenarios benefitting Marner in the end.
Multiple Teams Will Be In On Marner
The Leafs now have a pecking order based on the extensions signed by Matthews and Nylander. Matthews is the best pure goal-scorer in the NHL and the Maple Leafs best player. His contract carries an AAV of $13.25 million.
Nylander has an AAV of $11.5 million and his production has continued to ascend for the last three full seasons he has played, twice hitting the forty-goal mark.
Both Matthews and Nylander alternated carrying the Leafs throughout the 2023-2024 season. Marner was the third-best player on the team, even before his late-season injury. He didn't affect the outcomes of games nearly as often as Matthews or Nylander.
That carried over into the playoffs when Matthews and Nylander each single-handedly won a game for the Leafs. Marner, rightly or wrongly, bore the brunt of the criticism for another playoff defeat.
To reward Marner with an extension would be a public relations disaster for the Leafs, unless it were for an amount less than Matthews and Nylander. That would be bad business for the player.
Leafs General Manager Brad Treliving even seems lukewarm on the possibility of a Marner extension. Put together, the extensions of Matthews and Nylander plus Marner's third-string status from last season, a new contract for Marner from Toronto is not going to approach what awaits on the open market next summer.
Marner and his agent are well aware of this. A 100-point plus season and teams will be lining up for his services. Even an 85-95 point season (an average year for Marner) will still result in maximum-term offers of more than what the Leafs will likely propose.
Many prime years are still ahead for Marner, a proven 90-100 point producer who can play on both special teams. Ferris should expect to be busy with multiple teams inquiring about the star right-winger's services come July 1st next year.
The Leverage Rests With Marner Thanks to No-Movement Clause
The no-movement clause in Marner's current contract with the Leafs gives him something that all players strive for, control.
He will undoubtedly be peppered with questions about his situation the next time he addresses the Toronto media. That may not be a comfortable setting, but Marner is used to the fish bowl surrounding the Leafs.
Once that is dealt with he can get on with the task at hand, playing to his usual level. Do that and another wealthy contract is ensured.
The biggest risk for Marner is a serious injury, but unless it is career-threatening, it won't affect his next deal. An injury won't deter teams from offering him a big-money deal thanks to his past production with many more fruitful years to come.
His supposed lack of playoff production, even though it's on par with both Matthews and Nylander, also won't scare potential suitors away. Most will believe they can bring out the best in Marner come springtime.
Waiting is the Best Option For Marner and the Leafs
Waiting it out is the best option for both Marner and the Maple Leafs. Marner can test the free-agent market and confirm his value. As of right now, the Leafs will not get an equal return for a player of Marner's stature.
The team gets another year of his services along with Matthews and Nylander, which is better than a diminished return in a trade.
Both the team and the player can revisit a new contract after next season. Should Marner have a great year, the Leafs can afford to increase their offer with the contract of John Tavares coming off the books. Plus, the NHL salary cap is expected to increase once again.
Then, a new deal for Marner with an AAV between Matthews' $13.25 million and Nylander's $11.5 million would be more than fair. An AAV for Marner at $12-12.5 million would take up a similar salary-cap percentage to Tavares' expiring contract and leave the Leafs room to supplement the rest of the roster.
Marner's self-professed love of playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs would be tested. If he chose to walk away, despite a fair proposal, the Leafs can use the cap space and reinforce the lineup through trades or free agency.
If Marner accepts a new Leafs deal a year from now, he will have earned it through his play. Slotting him in somewhere between Matthews and Nylander is appropriate and he could continue playing for the team he loves.
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For everyone involved, it's worth the wait.