Should the Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Down at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft?
The 2024 NHL Draft is only a few weeks away and as of right now the Toronto Maple Leafs are without a pick in rounds two, three, and six.
As well, they do not have any picks in the first four rounds of next years draft. The following year, the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t have a second, fourth, or sixth either.
This means that the Leafs are down ten picks in the next three drafts.
This is not good, but it's a fact of life for a team that has spent nearly a decade trying to win a Stanley Cup and being near the top of the league.
Luckily, this is slightly mitigated by having two extra fifths and an extra seventh this year. Depending on who the Leafs draft, they can help to re-stock their prospect cupboards.
Even still, this is a lot of draft capital to be missing out on and given they only made three selections last year, the future outlook for the Leafs’ prospect pool is about as dry as the Sahara desert. After this next crop of prospects, things look bleak.
Luckily, there are ways this can be helped but only one that involves actual draft picks, which is through trades.
One of the most common ways to do this is through “trading down” in the draft. This is usually done when a team trades a draft pick to a team in return for multiple later picks.
The thought process behind this is that the team trading down is able to increase their chances of drafting a future NHL player by giving them more kicks at the can.
Should Brad Treliving Trade Down?
A popular narrative surrounding Kyle Dubas’ tenure as GM with the Toronto Maple Leafs was that he loved “trading down” in the draft.
Dubas did this a few times, trading the 24th pick (Travis Konecny) in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft to take Travis Dermott (34th) and Jeremy Bracco (61st).
He also did this in 2018, trading back from 25 (Dominik Bokk) to take Rasmus Sandin and Semyon Der-Arguchintsev. As well, trading the 25th pick in 2022 (Sam Rinzel) along with Petr Mrazek to take Fraser Minten.
As you can see, it can be used in different ways like with the 2022 pick being utilized to dump a bad contract in Mrazek. It also works well sometimes like in 2018 and not so well other times like in 2015.
Brad Treliving has also done this numerous times. Most recently with the Flames, he did this in 2021. Although on a smaller scale, he traded down from the 84th pick and acquired the 89th and 168th pick.
He also did this in 2020. The Flames originally held the 19th overall pick but traded that for the 22nd and 72nd overall picks and then flipped the 22nd pick for the 24th and 80th overall picks. So, he started off with the 19th pick and ended up turning that into the 24th, 72nd, and 80th picks.
In this trade, he turned the pick that became Braden Schneider into rookie standout Connor Zary, prospect Jake Boltmann, and prospect Jeremie Poirier.
Although Schneider made the NHL in his DY+2 season, his underlying statistics and usage show him as more of a 3rd pairing defender at this time. On the other hand, Zary is currently a 3rd line center while Poirier is knocking on the door as a potential bottom-pair defender as early as next year.
The potential of these players at this time lean towards the pair of Flames with Zary looking like a potential middle-six pivot down the line and Poirier a bottom-four defender with Schneider looking like he could become a second pair guy.
This could be one way that Treliving could make up the lack of draft capital. He can trade from 23rd once or twice to pick up an additional pick or two. Typically, the value difference between the 23rd and 32nd pick is minimal, meaning that if he can add an additional top-90 pick or two, it could be worthwhile.
There are a number of combinations to make this trade work and it is of course dependent on the teams involved and the picks they have available. For the purposes of finding a team I have a few comparable trades to work from.
The first being Treliving’s own trade of the 22nd pick for the 24th and 80th. As well, in 2018 the Senators traded the 22nd overall pick for the 26th and 48th. The next is in 2015 when the Leafs traded the 24th pick for 29th and 61st picks.
Mock Trades
Given these trades I have identified a few possible trade partners.
I only looked at the Leafs trading down and staying in the first round but if the Leafs move down further into the second round, they could potentially get more assets or a better secondary asset.
I have used Puckpedia's Perri Pick Value Calculator tool to try and come up with trades that make sense. Below I used all of the trades that would result in a less than 2.0 +/- value change and keep the Leafs picking in the first round.
The first is with the Montreal Canadiens, where the Leafs swap pick 23 for picks 26 and 57. This would give the Leafs surplus value of +1.7.
The next is the Carolina Hurricanes, swapping the 23rd pick for picks 27 and 60. This would still give the Leafs surplus value at +0.68.
Then there is the Calgary Flames, trading pick 23 for 28 and 62. In this trade, the Leafs would be leaving value on the table and would be much less desirable with -0.15 value change.
The final is the Philadelphia Flyers, Leafs send them the 23rd pick for the 31st and 51st overall pick. This trade trends towards the Leafs receiving even less value with a -0.31 change.
As I mentioned before, there are many factors involved in trading down picks. The first is if the team is willing to move up which depends on their internal scouting rankings and who is still on the board. Then there is the team’s prospect and pick situation and their internal philosophy on trading up/trading down. Then of course the value added/subtracted is always a calculation.
All Trade Information Via: Capfriendly.com and PuckPedia.com
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Trades are difficult to make but Treliving will need to make some in order to replenish the team’s prospect cupboard for the future. Many teams have had their windows slammed shut because they cannot keep up with adding NHL-level prospects to their system and incorporating them into their lineup. Doing this will be paramount for the Leafs success now and going forward.