3 reasons why the Maple Leafs will maintain a top-three spot for the NHL playoffs
The NHL playoffs are just over a month away and the Toronto Maple Leafs are playing in a conference whose playoff picture remains unsettled.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have 85 points and they seem to be firmly entrenched in snagging a top-three spot in the Atlantic Division, set to play either the Boston Bruins or the Florida Panthers in the First Round of the NHL playoffs. But when you look at the entire conference, especially among wild card contenders, it seems like few teams are interested in maintaining their current playoff spot.
Look at the Detroit Red Wings, a team that once looked like a surefire wild card contender. Or the Philadelphia Flyers, who have struggled in their last 10 games and are only three points ahead of their division rivals, the New York Islanders and Washington Capitals.
However, the Tampa Bay Lightning have been winning, the Red Wings could resurge, and even the Buffalo Sabres have turned a corner. So even if the Maple Leafs look like they will secure the third seed, is it as clear-cut as it seems?
Toronto has been a remarkable 12-3-1 since February 13th, with an incredible 65 goals in those 16 games, and they have scored four or more goals in 10 of those wins. They look like the Eastern Conference’s best team next to the Bruins and Panthers, and few would believe this team could slip up.
Maple Leafs may not be immune to slip-ups like other teams in the East
Nobody knows slip-ups more than the Red Wings, who have lost seven of eight dating back to late February. We are over halfway through March and they have won just a single game this month, and it shows just how easily a team can look like they are in control of their destiny, only to fall out of the second wild card at times.
Despite their recent overtime loss, Toronto looks like they’re peaking at the moment, and they very well could be, but thanks to how unpredictable things get during the NHL playoff race, we can’t just assume the Maple Leafs will be, at worst, a third seed following their 82nd game of the season.
However, Toronto has also given us plenty of reasons to believe they won’t fall into the same trap as the Islanders, the Flyers, and the Red Wings.
Nine of Toronto’s remaining games are against struggling hockey teams
Easy opponents don’t exist in March and April, and it doesn’t matter if you’re playing the Florida Panthers or the Montreal Canadiens. Florida is looking to earn a first seed and another Presidents’ Trophy, and you know that they will take their physical style to another level from now until they either win the Cup or if someone knocks them out of the playoffs. Teams like Montreal are going nowhere, but teams out of contention can be frustrating with an unpredictable playing style.
Toronto is lucky, as quite a few of their games are coming against teams on the playoff bubble that are also struggling to find consistency. They play the New Jersey Devils three times, the Washington Capitals twice, the Buffalo Sabres, the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Red Wings, and the Flyers, nine games total, among other matchups.
Expect the above teams to bring their A-Game, but they will also keep trying to play to their respective strengths, something that hasn’t been consistent for any of them throughout the 2023-24 season. They won’t be so unpredictable like a non-contender in the Canadiens, and none of those teams match Toronto in talent, giving the Maple Leafs an advantage down the stretch.
Nobody has figured out the Maple Leafs since February 13th
While Toronto lost three games in regulation in just over the past month, two of them came against the Boston Bruins in a combined score of 8-2. Joseph Woll was in the net for both games, and they were also the second and third times he had seen action in an NHL net since December 7th, so the Maple Leafs deserve a break here.
Toronto also didn’t play a pair of bad games, so it’s tough to say that the combined score listed above is a good indicator of how these contests turned out. Toronto had Boston beaten in the Corsi For department both times with a 58.4 and 57.5, respectively, and these numbers have been among the highest since the Maple Leafs started getting hot.
They also won in the faceoff dot in both games, crushing Boston in the category on March 7th when they won 75.6 percent of their draws. Toronto also beat Boston with an aggregate of 62 shots on goal compared to just 52 for the Bruins. You also saw similar numbers in their loss against Vegas in all of the above categories sans the shots on goal, so even when Toronto has lost, they still played a rather solid game - they just didn’t score and allowed too many goals.
Toronto is clicking unlike any other team in the offensive zone
Auston Matthews deserves a lot of credit here, as he has 19 points and 13 goals since February 13th, and he’s averaging nearly a goal per game. Matthews has been the game-changer this season for the Maple Leafs, evidenced by his 55 goals through 65 contests.
Adjusted for an 81-game slate, Matthews should end the season with between 69 and 70 goals. But with the Maple Leafs being arguably the best team in the league with the puck these days, there is a good chance Matthews supersedes that projected number. It hasn’t just been Matthews, with William Nylander on pace for at least 40 goals and Mitch Marner, 30.
In that same span, Nylander had 11 goals, while Marner had pitched in with 16 assists and three goals through 12 games. But that’s less than half of Toronto’s overall output, showing us just how good this team has been when they have the puck - if their overall Corsi For Percentage at even strength wasn’t enough.
Unless an unforeseen long-term injury occurs, as was the case with Dylan Larkin in Detroit, Toronto is the one top-three slash wild card team in contention that won’t suffer from inconsistencies or a rough stretch. The third-place team in the Metro, Philadelphia, could fall, but the Maple Leafs won’t meet the same fate. It will be surprising if anyone in the Atlantic catches them at this point.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)