Ranking the Possibilities of the Toronto Maple Leafs Trading a “Core Four” Member
Could the Maple Leafs actually consider moving one or more of their core four?
The absolute moment when the Toronto Maple Leafs were officially eliminated from the 2023-24 Stanley Cup Playoffs, there was a gut feeling that some wholesale changes were inevitably coming.
After all, with the Toronto Maple Leafs failing to advance past the first round of the playoffs for the seventh time in the last eight seasons, something definitely needs to be done to help this team get to the next level.
Shortly after the conclusion of their season, the first domino began to fall when the Leafs hired Craig Berube to replace the departed Sheldon Keefe as their new head coach for the upcoming season. But of course, this was just the beginning of the many expected moves by Toronto this offseason.
With that in mind, what is the possibility that the Maple Leafs would include shipping out a key member of their “core four” as a part of their retooling of their roster for 2024-25? Or perhaps maybe even more than one?
Ranking the Possibilities of the Toronto Maple Leafs Trading a “Core Four” Member
Here, we will rank the likelihood of a core four member being traded this offseason to help this Maple Leafs team build for now and the future.
If it does happen, the changes to the eventual team makeup could be substantial.
Auston Matthews
First and foremost, we have the face of the franchise in Auston Matthews.
Ever since becoming a part of the Leafs organization in 2016, Matthews has brought the team back to prominence by making them perennial contenders for the Stanley Cup. With a Calder Trophy, Maurice Richard Trophy, Hart Trophy, and a Ted Lindsey Award under his belt, he is the pure example of hockey excellence at its best.
Averaging almost 1.15 points per game and posting two 60+ goal seasons, he has done everything he could to make the team competitive and fun to watch for the past eight years.
So then, would the Leafs even dare to attempt to trade the superstar? There’s no doubt that among the core four, Matthews would provide the greatest return for the team. With three years left in his current contract and just entering his prime, who wouldn’t want the bonafide two-way player. Especially with what he does best is among one of the hardest things to do in NHL hockey, which is scoring goals.
However, that is the exact reason why Leafs management should not consider any trade involving Matthews at all costs.
Accounting for almost one-quarter of the team’s goals for the 2023-24 season, the Leafs offense would be severely impacted if he was no longer a part of the team. In addition, any trade involving Matthews would probably cause a huge riot among the fanbase as well as the players, so the last thing one would want to do is rile up Leafs nation along with the team’s chemistry going forward.
As a result, zero chance that Matthews will be going anywhere, unless GM Brad Treliving wants to lose his job.
Probability of being traded: 0%
William Nylander
Prior to this past season, William Nylander would have probably been a prime candidate among the core four to be moved in a trade to help the Leafs.
First of all, given his offensive contributions, Nylander had one of the team’s most friendliest contracts at just under $7 million AAV at the time, which was highly appealing to many teams.
In addition, despite his offensive prowess, he often had the knack of shying away from the corners and dirty work, thus drawing the ire of the fanbase from time to time as a result.
However, this past year has been a different story for Nylander.
He became a lot more aggressive in his play and was willing to take the hit to complete plays to his teammates. In doing so, he had also posted his best ever NHL season, tying his career-high in goals with 40 and setting career-highs in assists with 58 and points with 98.
Unfortunately, a bout with migraines limited him to just four games during the playoffs along with his overall effectiveness, but he did still manage to score three important goals. On top of that, Nylander and the Leafs agreed on an eight-year, $92 million extension, showing the team’s belief and long-term commitment in him.
As a result, unless the Leafs receive a highly enticing offer, Nylander will likely remain a Maple Leaf for the foreseeable future. What the Leafs should decide on though is whether to have Nylander flank Matthews or have each of them drive their own lines to be most effective going forward.
Nylander has a no-trade clause until his new contract kicks in, when it becomes a no-movement clause. Why would a team trade a player they just committed eight year to before that contract even kicks in?
Probability of being traded: 1% (nothing is impossible).
John Tavares
When the Leafs made their big John Tavares signing through free agency during the 2018 offseason, many believed he was the remaining piece of the missing puzzle to help the team reach their ultimate goal in winning the Stanley Cup.
Known for his ability to make players around him better, along with averaging almost a point a game throughout his career, Tavares was expected to help elevate Toronto’s overall game while providing a two-headed monster setup together with Matthews for their top two lines.
Well, Tavares has managed to maintain his point a game pace for the bulk of the time with the Leafs, and it's hard to complain about anything he's done, except for all the losing in the playoffs.
In year six of his contract, when he should have declined quite a bit by anyone's standards, Tavares put up great peripheral numbers in an overall unlucky year.
At aged 33, Tavares isn’t going to get any younger, as his foot speed has been visibly slower this past season.
In addition, he only managed to put up 65 points in 80 games played during the 2023-24 season, marking his lowest points-rate since his rookie season in 2009-10. If the Leafs were to trade the captain, it would require Tavares to waive his no-movement clause first.
If that does happen, the Leafs would more than likely explore opportunities to move the 15-year veteran.
Probability of being traded: 25% (It seems highly unlikely that the Leafs would ask their home-town captain to waive his NTC)
Mitch Marner
Finally, there’s magic Mitch Marner as the remaining member of the core four.
Known for his wizardry with the puck whenever on the ice, Marner has brought plenty of excitement to Leafs fans over the years with his plays both offensively and defensively.
However, he has somehow left a lot to be desired after he signed the massive six-year, $65 million contract (with an AAV of about $10.9 million) in 2019. With that amount typically given to top centres in the NHL, many had expected him to raise his game to another level to justify the salary amount.
Then again, you can't pin the playoff losses solely on him and he's clearly worth the money in the regular season where he has 4 straight seasons of being on pace for 100 points while picking up votes for the Selke Trophy and playing elite defense.
It should also be noted that he has scored close to a point-per-game in the playoffs while massively limiting the other team's ability to score. People want him to score more, but a lot of that is on how he is deployed.
Marner has remained pretty much the same the past few years, always consistent yet never quite becoming the dominating player like Kucherov has done for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
(All stats from NHL.com and CapFriendly.com)
Among the four, Marner is easily the most tradeable player in the group, which has been exemplified by the massive amount of media pieces swirling around the past few weeks on that matter.
At only the young age of 27, he has plenty of great prime years ahead of him, if given the right environment for him to flourish. He is an MVP level superstar and one of the best players in Toronto Maple Leafs Franchise History.
Marner would be easy to trade, but since he has a NTC and since teams who trade players like this regret it almost 100% of the time, it's a trade the Leafs will lose.
When you factor in the surety of losing a trade with the fact he has a NMC it seems unlikely the Leafs will trade him. Then again, this is the Leafs we are talking about and they tend to do a lot of dumb things!
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Probability of being traded: 50%