Ranking extension candidates of the Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs have important players that are eligible for contract extensions. Which of them is most urgent?
The Toronto Maple Leafs have had a busy offseason adjusting their roster and coaching staff after another early playoff exit. Free agents were added and extensions were signed.
With most of the heavy lifting done on improvements to the lineup, the focus has shifted to the future. Specifically, which players with expiring contracts should be signed to extensions? John Tavares, Mitch Marner, Jake McCabe, and Matthew Knies are important parts of the Toronto Maple Leafs, and they have a year left on their current deals. Tavares, Marner, and McCabe are eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer, while Knies will be a restricted free agent.
The 2025-2026 season will see another increase to the NHL's salary cap. The cap maximum will rise to $92 million, up $4 million from 2024-2025.
It presents a fascinating scenario for the Leafs. They will have more salary cap space than they have had in years. With it comes more opportunity and flexibility to mold the roster around Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev, and Joseph Woll. So which of Marner, Tavares, McCabe, and Knies should Treliving be pushing to sign an extension?
Ranking extension candidates of the Toronto Maple Leafs
The topic of a Tavares extension was broached at the press conference coronating Matthews as the Leafs new captain. Unsurprisingly, Tavares chose to provide little detail on the possibility.
Tavares brings leadership, goal-scoring, and face-off ability to the Maple Leafs, but the team should not rush to sign him to an extension. The prodigal son returning to help his hometown in their quest for glory is a good story, but Father Time is looming.
The Leafs are best to let Tavares play out the 2024-2025 season and see where his level of play is. His future is likely as a third-line center or shifting to the wing. Committing money to an almost 35-year-old with a possible decline upcoming would be unwise. An extension for Tavares is the least urgent for Maple Leafs management.
The Leafs Should Wait and See on McCabe
The case for extending defenseman Jake McCabe is more interesting. His play during the second half of last season warrants a new deal, but it took some time to reach that level.
The first part of 2024-2025 saw him take unnecessary gambles for big hits mixed in with the occasional foolish penalty and giveaways. During the stretch run and into the playoffs, he was a nasty, hard-hitting nemesis that the Leafs blue line needed.
He brings the thunder like no other Leafs blueliner and is a threatening presence to opposition forwards cruising through the neutral zone. None of the team's other defensemen have that capability, except maybe Chris Tanev.
Something else to consider is the age of the Leafs defense. It's old. Tanev and Ekman-Larsson are thirty-four and thirty-three years old respectively. McCabe and Rielly are thirty. The team still doesn't know what it has in younger defensemen like Timothy Liljegren, Cade Webber, and Topi Niemela.
In two years, the Maple Leafs blue line could see a depreciable drop-off in play due to age. Getting McCabe signed now is premature, but if he has a solid first half of 2024-2025, the Leafs would be wise to get ahead of the market and try to sign the rearguard to an extension.
From the Leafs perspective, Marner and Knies make the most sense to get extensions done. Marner and his agent seem content to test free agency. Treliving hasn't demonstrated the same urgency to get a Marner deal done as he did a year ago when signing both Matthews and Nylander to extensions. That leaves a surprising choice as the team's most urgent extension candidate.
Knies is Leafs Most Urgent Extension Candidate
Marner betting on himself for a big year heading towards free agency is a wise decision. It will only increase his market. Barring a catastrophic injury, he will get paid handsomely, even with a subpar season.
Treliving and the Maple Leafs should wait out this season as well. Marner's contract expiring gives them options to shake up the roster if the team disappoints again. If they offer him fair value (for less than Matthews) after this coming year and he chooses to walk, that is better than signing an early extension and limiting the team's trade and salary cap options.
That leaves Knies as the player the Leafs should most urgently pursue for a contract extension. The team must be proactive and get the young power forward signed to a long-term deal. Should Knies' play continue to ascend, so too will his cost.
The Leafs should follow the lead of the Montreal Canadiens and Juraj Slafkovsky or the Minnesota Wild and Matt Boldy. Both teams risked a long-term deal in exchange for years of free agency. It's the type of move made by forward-thinking organizations.
Signing a short-term, bridge deal runs the risk of the Leafs paying more for Knies later. A long-term extension now gives the Maple Leafs a better chance of managing the salary cap and keeping all of Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Knies.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs have many candidates to consider for an extension. In all cases, but one, they are best to show patience and let the upcoming season play out. Matthew Knies is the exception.