Projecting the Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Roster
Over the weekend, the Toronto Maple Leafs clinched the playoffs for the eighth straight season. They got Mitch Marner and Morgan Reilly back in the lineup and have Timothy Liljegren and Joel Edmundson nearing a return. It appears the Maple Leafs will be back at full strength come playoff time, so let's talk about what I think the Maple Leafs lineup should look like for game one of the playoffs.
After clinching a playoff spot last weekend, the Toronto Maple Leafs are pretty much lined up to face the Florida Panthers in round one of the NHL Playoffs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have already started to get healthier recently and after getting Mitch Marner and Morgan Reilly back in the lineup this week, Timothy Liljegren will be back tonight.
The Maple Leafs also got Joel Edmundson back for their last game against New Jersey on Thursday.
With everyone but Calle Jarnkrok healthy, it would give them 15 serviceable forwards and nine serviceable defensemen. Sheldon Keefe is going to have tough decisions to make on the final roster for round one.
Let's discuss who will be in the starting lineup and who will get snubbed.
Projecting The Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Roster
Since Mitch Marner has returned to the lineup, Sheldon Keefe has experimented with spreading the superstars throughout the Maple Leafs lineup having Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander all on different lines.
Lineups@Molson_Canadian | #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/nE1TJ84InA
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) April 8, 2024
Whether or not Sheldon Keefe keeps the talent spread out or not, all nine forwards in the Leafs top nine are locks to be on the playoff roster. Where Keefe has decisions to make is on the fourth line. More specifically what to do with Ryan Reaves.
Reaves can be a valuable playoff asset, just having his presence on the bench is an intimating factor and would be a net positive going against either the Boston Bruins or Florida Panthers, two very physical teams.
But I don't think Reaves's physicality is enough to justify him playing in the playoffs over Nick Robertson or Calle Jarnkrok once he is cleared to play. Sure, these two are not the prototypical fourth-line players, but neither was Jason Spezza. Winning those minutes is far more important than what style of play they are conducted in.
No matter who Sheldon Keefe decides to start in the series, between Calle Jarnkrok, Nick Robertson and Ryan Reaves, Keefe has multiple different options that can fill different roles if the Leafs need to adjust mid series.
If I had the keys to the team (it is probably a good thing I don't), I would probably give the nod to Nick Robertson, who has taken advantage of every opportunity this season. However, Sheldon Keefe will likely go with Calle Jarnkrok as he tends to trust his mentors more and refuses to give young guys chances to grow.
Projecting the Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Defensive Core
With Joel Edmundson and Timothy Liljgren likely to return before game one of the playoffs, the Maple Leafs will have to decide on six of the nine serviceable defensemen on their roster. This will be a tough decision, considering all of the depth defensemen are similar in quality but have different styles of play.
First things first, though, the Maple Leafs need to decide who will play with Morgan Reilly, and this should not be a difficult decision. Morgan Reilly has played with multiple different defense partners this year, but only has above a 60% expected goal share with one guy.
That guy is Timothy Liljegren. Reilly and Liljegren have a 63.5% expected goal share in the 111 minutes they have played together this season. This is the highest expected goal share of any Leafs pairing that have played at least 50 minutes together this season (via MoneyPuck).
Keefe also had them paired at practice yesterday.
Moving down the list, Jake McCabe is the guy I see locked into playing on the second pairing, and I think Sheldon Keefe has to give Connor Timmins a chance here.
These two have played 40 minutes together at five-on-five and have a 69.6% expected goal share. Timmins has been criminally underused this season but ranks first among Maple Leaf's defensemen in expected goal share on the season (via NaturalStatTrick) and is a far better puck mover than Ilya Lybushkin, Joel Edmundson and T.J Brodie. This will be a massive priority against the Bruins or Panthers, who are both phenomenal in putting pressure on defensemen on their end.
The third pairing is where I think Sheldon Keefe can go several different ways; it will likely have to have Mark Giordano on it, given the offensive liability that Lybushkin, Brodie and Edmundson present. But if I had to decide between the three, Ilya Lybushkin must fill out this last spot in the lineup.
He has played 15 games since rejoining the Maple Leafs at the trade deadline, and in those games, he has 55.55% expected goal share, which ranks second among Leafs defensemen on the year, though notably he doesn't really get tough matchups and is generally given either the 5th or 6th most TOI on the team when he plays.
This leaves, Joel Edmundson and T.J Brodie as the odd men out, again this leaves Keefe options to adjust mid series if he has to, but both of these guys are below 50% in five on five expected goal share on the year and will struggle against the ferocious forecheck of the Panthers or Bruins.
Maple Leafs Round 1 Playoff Lineup
I really don't hate Sheldon Keefe's idea of spreading out the superstars, but looking at the Panthers and the Bruins, they have all of their talent stacked in their top six forwards.
So, in my opinion, as the lines stand right now, the Leafs stars are a little spread out for my liking.
Here is how I would like to see the Maple Leafs line up in the playoffs.
Tyler Bertuzzi - Auston Matthews - Max Domi
William Nylander - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Bobby McMann - Pontus Holmberg - Nick Robertson
Matthew Knies - David Kampf - Connor Dewar
Morgan Reilly - Timothy Liljegren
Jake McCabe - Connor Timmins
Mark Giordano - Ilya Lybushkin
Ilya Samsonov
Joseph Woll
manual
This roster should be able to compete with any one of these teams that make the playoffs as long as they can come out and play hard for a full 60 minutes night in and night out in the playoffs.