Predictions for the Eastern Conference in the First-Round of the NHL Playoffs
The Toronto Maple Leafs got a nice surprise on Tuesday night when they lost to the Florida Panthers and were gifted with a series that is likely 10x easier.
The Toronto Maple Leafs will kick off the NHL Playoffs next week on the road against the Boston Bruins, and while they did lose to Boston four times this year, I'm not worried at all.
The Leafs are overdue for some playoff luck and Boston is going to regret losing their final two games.
I am not saying it's going to be easy, just easier than playing Florida.
Boston has one of the best players in the NHL In David Pasternk and one of the best defenseman in the NHL In Charlie McAvoy. Their goalies are also among the best in the league.
But after that? Their roster is not good. They have a ton of players who could play on the Leafs fourth line or their bottom-pairing, but that's it.
I realize that the Bruins probably haven't lost seven out of 11 games in probably over two years, and that that is what is going to have to happen for them to lose to the Leafs, but I think it's still going to happen.
The Leafs can put a superstar on every line, and can (assuiming Calle Jarnkrok can play) dress a fourth line that is better than Boston's 3rd line (Dewar-Kampf-Jarnkrok). With three scoring lines and a great shut-down line, the Leafs are going to be relentless.
The weakness of the Leafs is, of course, their goalies and defense, but the randomness of goalies should play into their favor.
Consider this: Auston Matthews is better than Pavel Zacha, and that is true in pretty much every signle game. There is really no chance, outside of injury, that the Bruins will get a better performance out of Zacha than the Leafs get out of Matthews.
However, when it comes to goaltending this isn't the case. There is no doubt that both Swayman and Ullmark are superior to Samsonov and Woll. Over a whole season this is as much of a slamdunk as Matthews over Zacha. However, in a single playoff series, there is at least a 40% chance the Leafs get the better goaltending.
Basically, there is a degree of randomness to Boston's biggest strength that isn't present in Toronto's. This will lead to the Leafs winning the series.
I think this is the biggest lock of the playoffs. The follow predictions could go either way, but the Leafs over Boston is all but a guarantee!
NHL Playoff Predictions.
Florida vs Tampa
The Leafs caught a break here because Florida is a great team and even though I think the Leafs would have beaten them, I think it's easier to play Boston.
The Panthers though don't get much of a reward for finishing in first place.
Tampa lost in the first-round last year and likely won't do that again. Their team can't really defend, but they've got the best goalie alive and, like the Leafs, have a great offense.
I just don't see Tampa losing in the first round two years in a row, so even though I believe that the Panthers might be the NHL's best overall team, I think they will lose.
The NHL has a lot of parity and there really isn't much separation between the top teams, as seen and expemplified the best by this series.
While Florida has a great roster, Tampa has two Cups and I believe are still hungry for more. Whatever the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams, the fact is Sergei Bobrovsky isn't going to play at the level he did last year, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is one of the best goalies in NHL Playoff history.
I wouldn't bet against Vasilevskiy unless it was the Toronto Maple Leafs he was playing against.
My prediction is Tampa in six.
New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals
It's crazy to think that the Penguins - with Crosby and Karlsson - missed the playoffs but the weakest Capitals roster in a decade somehow made them.
I think Pittsburgh could have defeated New York, but I don't believe that Washington has any chance.
In fact, I don't think Washington will even win a game.
The Rangers have better forward.
The Rangers have a much better blue-line.
The Rangers have a better goalie.
In fact, this is probably the most lopsided series in the entire playoffs. While anything can happen in the NHL's Annual Tournement of Variance, the Rangers losing to the Capitals seems pretty unlikely.
The Rangers won't be able to get by the Leafs or the Panthers, should it come to that, but they should have absolutely no trouble with the Washington Capitals.
Then again, maybe Alex Ovechkin goes on a late career renaicance and the Capitals become a Cinderella team and caputure our hearsts with the romance of a legacy team getting one final kick at the can.
Actually, that would be awesome. Outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs winning the Stanley Cup, it's the best thing I can imagine.
But it ain't happening.
I predict that the New York Rangers win in five games. (But I hope I'm wrong and will be cheering for Ovechkin and the Capitals).
Carolina Hurricanes vs the New York Islanders
There is always a series you have no interest in watching, isn't there?
Unless you are related to a player on either of these teams, I assume you agree with me that this is the most boring possible series the NHL could have dreamed up.
While the Atlantic teams will duke it out in series that are worthy of being the Stanley Cup Finals, each of the two good Metro teams get a gimmie.
This one isn't such a slam-dunk as the Rangers series because of Ilya Sorokin, but it's damn close.
The Islanders wouldn't be a playoff team if they played in a harder division, and Detroit abnd Pittsburgh, two teams who won't be playing this spring, are easily better than they are.
Heck, I think Buffalo might be too.
The Islanders are not a good team and they won't give the Hurricanes too much trouble, unless their goalie catches fire. That's a real possibility, because he's one of the best goalies alive, but it's pretty unlikely.
The Hurricanes are just too good. Still, I'll say seven games for the 'Canes.
To recap:
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The Leafs, Hurricanes, Rangers and Lightning will be going to round two, while the Bruins, Panthers, Islanders and Capitals will be going home after just one round.