Predicting a Contract Extension for Toronto Maple Leafs Captain John Tavares

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a dilemma on their hands: Extend John Tavares or let him walk. Before I get into my perspective on this issue, I’d like to point out a recent conversation TSN analyst Frankie Corrado had on the Jay Onrait Show.

Corrado equated the Tavares situation with what the Tampa Bay Lightning went through this summer with Steven Stamkos. In short, Corrado expressed that if the Lightning were willing to let their captain go after winning two Stanley Cups, then the Toronto Maple Leafs should not be afraid of letting Tavares go.

Now, here’s something key: Corrado underscored the fact that Tavares hasn’t won anything in Toronto. While Corrado feels that Tavares has done everything “exceptionally well,” Tavares’ only failure has been leading a group of players that hasn’t won anything yet.

While those are harsh words, they are, nonetheless, the truth. In Tavares’ six seasons, the Leafs have just one playoff series victory to show. One could argue success on Tavares’ end if the Leaf had made at least a Stanley Cup Final appearance. Sadly, that is not the case.

Predicting a Contract Extension for Toronto Maple Leafs Captain John Tavares

Personally, I feel that the Leafs should extend Tavares. However, there are some conditions to keep in mind.

First, Tavares should not get a long-term deal. I agree with Corrado that a three to four-year deal would make the most sense. Anything beyond that would leave Tavares in Robidas Island territory.

Second, Corrado speculated a potential $6 million cap hit for this next deal. I beg to differ with Corrado on that one. I don’t think Tavares is worth that much at this point. He could get that on the open market from a rebuilding team like San Jose or Utah, which might be looking for a big name to become the team captain.

In my estimation, Tavares should be looking at something around $5 million per season if he stays in Toronto. But as Corrado pointed out, Tavares could get more money outside of Toronto. If money drives Tavares’ decision-making process, he should seek a deal elsewhere.

Lastly, there is the question of where Tavares should play. Tavares has so far aged remarkably well, but it won't be long before he's too old to be a reliable second-line centre, and the Leafs may have to factor that into any extension.

$5 million for a third-line centre?

Moving Tavares to the wing would make the most sense. He’s still a top-six forward. Placing him in a less demanding role would give the Leafs more flexibility. However, Craig Berube is stuck with Tavares at centre until the team finds someone who could fill that void.

Ultimately, if I were the Leafs GM, I would extend Tavares under the right circumstances. One of those circumstances would be a Stanley Cup. Short of winning the Cup this season, the Leafs would do better to extend Mitch Marner and let Tavares walk.