NHL Trade Deadline Winners and Losers - (The Toronto Maple Leafs Are Losers)
Breaking down the three biggest winners of this year's NHL Trade Deadline and the three biggest losers.
The NHL Trade Deadline came and went Friday afternoon with the Toronto Maple Leafs mostly sitting out the festivities.
Of course the Toronto Maple Leafs did make some moves (four in total) but they were decidedly low-impact moves.
The NHL trade deadline was full of movement, we saw 23 teams make trades involving 33 players on the day of the trade deadline alone.
We saw most of the Stanley Cup Contenders making moves to get better and we saw saw some stand still killing their chances at competing for a Stanley Cup.
In this article, we are going to look at the winners and the loser.
I am not here to talk about the value of future picks, prospects and so on, this is going to be a breakdown of which teams made the best moves to get themselves closer to a Stanley Cup and a breakdown of which teams killed their chances by failing to address their issues.
Player & Team Stats via NaturalStatTrick
Player WAR & Microstats via JFreshHockey
Projected Line Ups / Line Combinations / Trade Information via DailyFaceoff
Salary Cap & Contract Data via CapFriendly
Colorado Avalanche Biggest Deadline Winner
The Colorado Avalanche Front Office had a great trade deadline, they used underperforming roster pieces and draft picks to upgrade their defensive group by winning the battle for Sean Walker and bolstered their top six forwards by adding Casey Mittelstadt.
They also used late-round picks to add some much-needed depth and injury-insurance, here is a snapshot of who they brought in and who they moved on from.
Aqquistions | Departures |
---|---|
- Sean Walker (Philadelphia Flyers) | - Bowen Byran |
Sean Walker > Bowen Byram
Although the trades did not work out like this, Sean Walker was brought in to be an upgrade from Bowen Byram and Casey Mittelstadt is the upgrade for Ryan Johansen.
Byram was the only liability in the Avalanche's defensive group. Byram excels at skating with the puck, finishing, and creating chances for himself but ranks below the league average among defensemen in defensive zone exits, entry chance prevention and defensive zone retrievals.
As long as Cale Makar is with Colorado, Byram was never going to get the chances on the powerplay and with the top players to be successful.
Walker is going to be a much better fit with this group. He ranks among the top 10 percent of defensemen in zone exits and entry denial rate and is in the top 16 percent in defensive zone retrieval success and entry chance prevention.
While Byram is the better goal scorer, Walker still has some upside on the offensive end. The cherry on top of this upgrade is that Walker ranks among the top four percent of defensemen in defensive wins above replacement (WAR), which is huge in the playoffs.
Casey Mittelstadt > Ryan Johanson
Casey Mittelstadt will also be a massive upgrade from Ryan Johansen, While Johanson is around the league average defensively among forwards, he is a complete blackhole offensively only posting 23 points through 63 games this season.
Mittelstadt is not an offensive superstar, but he is on pace for 62 points this season, three points more than the career high he set last season. He is more of a playmaker than a goal scorer on the offensive end, he ranks inside the top 20 percent of forwards in primary assists, off-the-rush shot assists and high-danger passes.
On top of being an offensive upgrade, he is also better than Johansen defensively. Mittelstadt is inside the top 18 percent of forwards in defensive WAR and had the best on-ice goals-for percentage on the Buffalo Sabres this season.
Yakov Trenin Bolsters Avalanche Top Nine Forwards
Yakov Trenin is the prototypical third-line winger every coach would love to have, he ranks among the top forwards in penalty kill WAR and in the top five percent in defensive WAR. He does not light up the stat sheet by only having 10 goals and 14 points this season, but he plays well in the flow of the offence during extended possessions which he should get more of with the Avalanche. Trenin is also a physical force ranking inside the top 10 percent of forwards in hits and forecheck involvement.
He is projected to slot in with Ross Colton and Miles Wood two other extremely physical guys that are much better at producing offensive chances. This line will be tough to play against given the size and physicality. The addiction of Trenin allows the Avalanche's top nine forwards to stack up with any other teams top nine in the NHL.
Avalanche Depth Add
The only other new piece to the Avalanche's everyday roster is going to be Brandon Duhaime, he is the perfect fourth-line winger in today's game. He plays with speed, kills penalties and is fairly physical. This is the type of guy any coach loves to have in the playoffs and he should be able to carve out a nice role for himself.
Going into the deadline the Avalanche were the highest-scoring offence in the NHL, they had questions to answer defensively as they were allowing just over three goals per game and with these moves, they addressed all of those issues. Adding two high-end defensive forwards and a quality defenseman in Sean Walker lofts them into the conversation of the best team in the NHL.
Florida Panthers (Also a Winner)
Last year Stanley Cup Finalists were probably the most complete team going into the Trade Deadline, they did not need to add much but were aggressive in going after the players they wanted. Going into the deadline the Panthers were widely regarded as one of the best defensive teams in the NHL that was missing offensive firepower.
To address this, the Panthers went out and traded for Vladimir Tarasenko from the Ottawa Senators for a third and a fourth-round pick. That is a heck of a deal considering the Toronto Maple Leafs had to pay a third and a sixth-round draft pick for Ilya Lybushkin.
Tarasenko is a complete defensive liability but that will be sheltered by the fact that he will be playing with two guys who will be in the Selke Trophy conversation Alexander Barkov and Sam Reinhart.
Tarasenko's defensive deficiencies will be completely hidden and his offensive abilities will shine. He is on a 24-goal pace which ranks in the top 15 percent of forwards and he is on a 57-point pace. He is a slightly above-average passer but is an elite scoring chance that excels off the rush ranking inside the top 15 percent of forwards in shots, shots of the rush and rush offence.
Tarasenko's shoot-first mentality will fit in great with this Panthers team that averages the most shots per game in the NHL. They also made one depth acquisition making a move for Buffalo Sabres captain Kyle Okposo which possibly makes the Panthers forward group the deepest in the NHL.
Okposo is projected to play on the Panthers fourth line, he is a great locker room guy and brings a ton of leadership. He is not the offensive player he once was but still ranks above the league average in finishing and goal-scoring.
He is also a physical, positionally sound player that ranks in the top 32 percent of forwards in defensive WAR. He won't play big minutes in the playoffs as he is not much of a penalty killer, but that was not the Panthers need. Okposo should give Panthers Head Coach Paul Maurice the confidence to trust his fourth line more in the playoffs to take the workload off of the top three lines.
This team no longer has any weaknesses, they did not do a ton at the deadline but they did a great job of filling the couple of holes they had. This could already beat you in so many ways, now adding a borderline elite goal scorer this team gets all the more lethal.
New York Rangers (Winner)
The New York Rangers entered the trade deadline as one of the NHL's hottest teams winning 11 of their last 14 games, it felt like the hockey world was starting to come around on them as true Stanley Cup contenders and they are 100 percent in that conversation after adding three key pieces before the deadline.
Jack Roslovic
Jack Roslovic is an elite playmaker and passer, he ranks in the top 10 percent of forwards in the NHL in primary assists this season. He ranked second on the Columbus Blue Jackets in total assists at five-on-five and third in primary assists per 60 minutes on the Blue Jackets. He is another guy who is a defensive liability, but that should be hidden playing beside Mika Zibanejad one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL and having Adam Fox a Norris Trophy candidate playing behind him.
I would not put this move on the same level as Tarasenko to the Panthers, but Roslovic's passing will also be a great fit alongside either Artemi Panarin or Chris Kreider who both rank inside the top 15 NHL goal scorers. This also allows the Rangers to move Kaapo Kaako back down to the third line a role he is more suited to play alongside the Rangers first acquisition from the deadline.
Alex Wennberg
Late in January, the New York Rangers announced that Filip Chytil had a setback in his injury recovery and would be out for the year. From that point on, it was clear that the Rangers needed to add someone to that could fill Chytil's role as a third-line center.
While Chytil had much more offensive upside, Wennberg is much better on the defensive side of the puck ranking in the top 27 percent of forwards in defensive WAR. At five-on-five Wennberg is somewhat of a ghost offensively he does contribute to the powerplay and will be a great addition to the Rangers second unit.
Wennberg may not be the most impactful player on the ice, but he certainly is not going to hurt you. Adding him to this roster allows the Rangers to put Barclay Goodgrow back on the fourth line where he belongs and if the Rangers can get Blake Wheeler back for the playoffs, they will have three lines that can compete with anyone in the NHL.
Chad Ruhwedel
The Rangers have one of the best defensive cores in the NHL with Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren, K'Andre Miller, and Jacob Trouba. At the start of the season, the Rangers added Erik Gustafsson to this group to play on the third pairing and quarterback the second powerplay unit. Although Gustafsson is not a bad defender, he does like to take offensive chances which hurt his defensive zone entry chance prevention numbers and his puck retrieval numbers.
But that is where Ruhwedel comes in, he is a true defensive defenseman who excels at denying chances off of the rush. He ranks among the top 10 percent of defensemen in entry chance denial rate, the top 17 percent in overall defensive WAR among defensemen this season and in the top nine percent of defensemen in penalty kill WAR.
This Gustafsson and Ruhwedel pairing is the dream third pairing. One offensive puck mover gives you reliable minutes on the powerplay and the other is a big physical defensive defenceman that will log a ton of minutes on the penalty kill.
The Rangers may not be quite as deep as the Florida Panthers, but I think these deadline moves firmly solidify them as the second-best team in the Eastern Conference on paper and when Igor Shesterkin is your goalie, anything can happen if he gets hot.
Winnipeg Jets (Winner)
The Winnipeg Jets pulled the trigger early on Sean Monahan from the Montreal Canadiens back in early February. Since then the Jets are 9-4 in games with Monahan in the lineup.
Coming into the deadline, the Jets had a few holes to address, they needed to address their powerplay which ranks in the bottom 10 teams in the NHL and their penalty kill which also ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. The Jets also desperately needed defensemen who could handle the puck and contribute offensively.
Sean Monahan was the first step in addressing the powerplay and the second was bringing in Tyler Toffoli from the New Jersey Devils. Both of these guys rank among the top 20 percent in powerplay WAR and the addition of Toffoli gives the Jets the freedom to experiment with different combinations on the top line while still having a fairly deep second unit.
Toffoli is also an elite goal scorer at five-on-five, he ranks among the top five percent of forwards in shot contributions, scoring chances and shots off of high-danger passes. Once he returns from injury, he should fit right in alongside Sean Monahan and Nikolaj Ehlers who are both excellent passers.
This combination on the second line should give the Jets a consistent secondary scoring punch and allow the Jets to keep their first line of Kyle Connor, Marc Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi together which has been dominant most of the year.
We will have to see if the Jets want to utilize Collin Miller the puck-moving defenseman that they brought in from the New Jersey Devils, or stick with Brendon Dillon or Dylan Samberg the more physical options, but either way, Miller is a great piece to have if one of these guys goes down with an injury.
The Jets failed to address their penalty-kill issues, but is that the biggest of deals when they have Connor Hellebuyck in the net?
Hellebuyck is likely going to win the Vezina Trophy this season, it is hard to blame the Jets for not going after goal-scoring to take some of the pressure off of their goalies. I thought the Jets had a very deep forward group before the deadline, but I think the addition of Tyler Toffoli will give them the consistent secondary scoring they need to make a deep playoff run.
Golden Knights (Winner)
The Las Vegas Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup last year and were not content to sit on the sidelines and enter the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
They added Anthony Mantha on the cheap, a sneaky-good move since he's putting up star-level numbers this years, at least at 5v5. A very efficient scorere, Mantha adds size and scoring to an already dangerous lineup.
Getting him so cheaply would alone put the Knights in the winners circle, but then they went full EA Sports GM Mode, acting like the LTIR was a gift from Gary Bettman to them personally.
The knights added potentiallyt the two best players that were traded this week.
Noah Hanifin was considered the prize of the deadline by most observers and the Golden Knights swooped in and added him to an already great blue line, much to the consternation of many Toronto Maple Leafs fans.
But what they did next shocked the hockey world. There wasn't even a rumour that Tomas Hertl was available, because why would a player with 7 years left on his contract be an option for a team that is close to capped out?
I'll leave the cost of prospects and future cap space to others, but the adding a #1 centre to go with a top-pairing defender and a top-six winger is absolutely crazy.
Tomas Hertle is an absolutely crazy pickup. This is a borderline franchise player who is still just 30 years old and who was posting solid results on one of the worst teams assembled in the cap era.
The Golden Knights were big winners this week and 31 other fanbases are extremely jealous.
Toronto Maple leafs: The Trade Deadlines Biggest Loser
The Toronto Maple Leafs had an absolutely horrendous Trade Deadline.
Look, the Maple Leafs did not get any worse at the deadline, but they did not get any better.
Brad Trevling kicked things off by overpaying for Ilya Lybushkin, then added Joel Edmundson who are both physical defensemen which the Maple Leafs needed.
But if the Maple Leads were looking to compete they needed to add a quality top-four puck-moving defencemen and neither Lybushkin nor Edmundson are close to that calibre anymore. While they are not worse than what the Maple Leafs already had they are not better either, both of these were lateral moves while all of the top contenders in the conference were making moves to get better.
The final move Trevling made was bringing in Connor Dewar from the Minnesota Wild, this is likely Treviling's fourth-line replacement for Ryan Reaves, but that does not move the needle for this team either.
The Maple Leafs needed to bring in a top-six center to play alongside William Nylander if they wanted to have any hopes of competing with teams as deep as the New York Rangers or Florida Panthers.
The Maple Leafs front office grossly overestimated where its team is at and stood still while all of the other teams they are competing with getting better. As far as I am concerned, with no significant upgrades at the deadline the Maple Leafs secured themselves another early-round playoff exit.
The Leafs will enter the playoffs weak at goalie, with a bad blue-line and without having addressed any of their most pressing needs.
Vancouver Canucks (Losers)
The Canucks pulled the trigger on two deals back in January both with the Calgary Flames to acquire Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov.
This led people to believe that the Canucks would be more aggressive teams going into Friday's deadline, but they never ended up making another move.
The Canucks were tied to a lot of big-ticket players, like Jake Guentzel and Tyler Toffoli. They were the only contender in the Western Conference not making moves leading up to the trade deadline.
This Canucks team did not do enough to keep up with the moves up the Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets and Vegas Golden Knights.
On the surface, Lindholm sounds like an impactful upgrade, but if you look a little deeper you'll see he has been anything but impactful only five points at five-on-five in his first 16 games with the Canucks and only has 10 points at five-on-five in 29 games since the new year.
Much like the Maple Leafs, the Canucks stood still while everyone around them got better.
The Cancuks are having a great season and this was a massive missed opportunie for them.
Pittsburgh Penguins (Losers)
With the Pittsburgh Penguins trading away Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes a division rival, it felt like the Penguins taking their first steps into preparing for the post-Sidney Crosby era.
Guentzel was the best winger Crosby has played with in his career and the two were dynamic together, but even with the addition of Erik Karlsson at the start of the season the Pittsburgh Penguins find themselves well outside of a playoff spot.
The Penguins come as loser for two reasons.
Having to sell when they have a team with four or five hall of famers on it just sad.
Secondly, they probably didn't get enough for Jake Guentzel, and they tried to split the difference between selling and still trying to make the playoffs. This never works, so pick a lane.
Selling Guentzel was the Penguins best option, but if you're doing it, go all the way down that road.
Guentzel is a free agent at the end of the year and would have likely walked for nothing if the Penguins had not dealt him at the deadline. This just has to be a sad realization for Penguin fans that the Crosby, Evgenii Malkin era is coming to an end in Pittsburgh.
To recap, the Winners of the NHL Trade Deadline 2024 are the Rangers, Jets, Knights, Avalanche and Panthers.
The loser are the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Canucks and the Penguins.