NHL Central Division Predictions for the 2024-25 Season
The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to win the Atlantic, but who will win the Central?
The Central division was a division the Toronto Maple Leafs performed well against last season with a 12-2-2 record (Stats from Statmuse.com).
While the Toronto Maple Leafs had a good year against them last year, the Central has some quality teams at the top of the division.
The Stars made the conference final last year where they lost a hard fought series in six games to the Edmonton Oilers. Colorado beat up on a good Winnipeg team in five games but eventually fell to Dalla. Even Nashville had a good performance in the first round against a Vancouver team who was great all year.
The division has changed this year. Overall, I believe it has gotten weaker for the most part while the Predators got better. Here is how I think it will play out.
Thoughts and Predictions on the Central Division
8. Chicago Blackhawks
Last season Chicago finished last in the Central with 52 points (Standings stats from NHL.com).
This offseason Chicago added Ilya Mikheyev, Sam Lafferty, Tyler Bertuzzi, Alec Martinez, Laurent Brossoit, Teuvo Teravainen, Craig Smith, Pat Maroon, T.J Brodie as well as drafting Artyom Levshunov with the second overall pick.
Levshunov isn't currently projected on the Blackhawks roster on Dailyfaceoff.com so it will be interesting to see if he sees any NHL action this season.
They lost Taylor Raddysh, Reese Johnson, Colin Blackwell, MacKenzie Entwistle, Nikita Zaitsev, Jaycob Megna and Tyler Johnson.
I like what the Blackhawks did this offseason. Getting guys like Bertuzzi and Teravainen gives Bedard solid NHL players to play with and also improves their roster overall. Brodie and Martinez are improvements on their blue line, with Brodie looking for a bounceback after a rough last season in Toronto.
Mrazek is still their starting goaltender after a great year last season. He played 56 games for Chicago last year, posting a .908 save percentage, 11.45 goals saved above average and 14.39 goals saved above expected (All advanced stats from Evolving-Hockey.com).
He was one of their surprise bright spots last year and now they got him a backup in Laurent Brossoit. Brossoit was one of the goalies I wanted the Leafs to grab as a tandem with Woll after his great year in Winnipeg. He played 23 games last season, posting a .927 save percentage, 14.36 GSAA and 17.82 GSAx.
While I like their moves, they still don't have enough talent to step out of the bottom spot of the division. Bedard is fantastic and hopefully, he can stay healthy this year so we can see what a full 82 games of Bedard in the playoffs looks like. Chicago will need steps out of their young studs in Kevin Korchinski, Alex Vlasic, and if Frank Nazar gets any games in the NHL this year. He is currently projected to play in the AHL.
Chicago finishes last in the central but it's all about the performance of their young players this year.
7. Minnesota Wild
Minnesota finished sixth in the Central with 87 points last season.
Over the offseason, Minnesota has added Jakub Lauko and Yakov Trenin while also adding some AHL depth. They didn't lose much in the offseason. Guys like Alex Goligoski, Vinni Lettieri and Jake Lucchini all played a decent amount of games for the Wild last season have left. In Goligoski's case, he retired after playing 1,078 in the NHL (All basic statistics from NHL.com).
As you can see from the incoming and outgoing players this season, the Wild are running back a very similar roster from last year.
They had very strong seasons from Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek as well as their rookie phenomenon Brock Faber.
Faber was a lot of people's Calder trophy pick last season after Bedard was held out of 14 games due to an injury. Faber played all 82 games last year, posting eight goals and 39 assists for 47 points. The great rookie year earned the 22-year-old defenseman an eight-year deal with an average annual value of 8.5 million dollars (All salary stats from PuckPedia.com). The Wild will look for him to take another step in his development this season.
When I look at the roster, I think there are some nice pieces. I already mentioned Kaprizov, Boldy, Eriksson Ek and Faber but other players like Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello are solid players in the league.
In terms of their goaltending, Filip Gustavsson had a tough year overall last year, posting a 0.899 save percentage, -5.99 goals saved above average, and -7.51 goals saved above expected. Maybe they get some improvement from him. Fleury is also aging and had a tough season last year as well. I'm not a fan of their situation although I could see a better year from Gustavsson.
The problem with Minnesota is I don't see where the improvement last year is coming from aside from potentially a bounce back from Gustavsson. Zuccarello could have a healthier year after posting 63 points in 69 games. The problem with that is he is 37 and even if he is healthy, I doubt he keeps the same point pace. Perhaps the improvement comes from their young guys like Rossi, Boldy and Faber taking another step. Even if that is the case, they missed the playoffs by 12 points last season and I can't see how the steps from their young guys are good enough for a 12-point improvement.
Minnesota didn't get better this offseason and I think the teams around them did.
6. Utah Hockey Club
Last season Utah finished seventh in the central with 77 points.
This offseason Utah had some pretty significant additions to their roster this season. They added John Marino, Mikhail Sergachev, Ian Cole and Kevin Stenlund. In turn they lost J.J Moser, Conor Geekie and Josh Brown.
They have pretty much rebuilt their blue line over the offseason. The acquisitions of Sergachev, Marino and Cole have given Utah a new look on their defence core while also moving out J.J Moser who played 80 games for them last season. Sergachev is projected to play on the first pair with Sean Durzi while Marino is on the second pair with Juuso Valimaki. I thought Sergachev was overrated in Tampa but that doesn't make him a bad player. It is an upgrade for Utah on the top pair. Marino used to be one of the best defensive defensemen and has since had a drop-off. If he can bounce back after a tough year in New Jersey, that would be big for Utah.
The forward core is very similar to last year with the core pieces of Keller, Cooley, Hayton and Guenther. They also have other nice pieces in Schmaltz, Crouse and Macelli. Josh Doan, the son of Coyotes legend Shane Doan, is going into his first full season in the NHL. Doan played 11 games with the Coyotes last year, scoring five goals and four assists for a total of nine points. Steps from Cooley, Hayton, Guenther, Doan and another great season from Keller could make this team very solid offensively.
I like their tandem of Ingram and Vejmelka and I think we'll see another solid season from the two of them.
While I don't think they'll make the playoffs, I like Utah this year. The blue line is better and I would bet on their young forwards taking steps and producing more this year. The problem is I'm not sure that Utah got 15 points better than last year. This season will be better but I still think the teams ahead of them didn't get much worse, if at all.
5. St.Louis Blues
The Blues finished fifth in the central with 92 points last season.
This offseason the Blues added Alexandre Texier, Mathieu Joseph, Radek Faska, Ryan Suter as well as the two moves that got talked about the most, the offer sheets of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. They only lost Kevin Hayes and Jakub Vrana.
The Blues added some depth this season with Texier, Joseph, Faska and Holloway who are all projected to play in their bottom six on dailyfaceoff.com. I could see Holloway taking a step this season and finding a role in their top six eventually this season. The additions on the blue line are a little bit more impactful. Suter struggled in Dallas last season and will have a third-pair role in this lineup while Broberg has a much bigger role as a top-four defenceman.
Broberg is going to be big for the Blues this year. With Torey Krug out for the year, Broberg will play big minutes. After signing an offer sheet with the Blues for two years with an average annual value of 4.5 million dollars, many saw this as an overpay. I thought it was an overpay but that is what you must do if you want a player to sign an offer sheet. I also think we will see Broberg take positive steps this season and live up to close to the cap hit.
I like their core players of Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich. It would be big for the Blues if they saw progression in the game of Jake Neighbours after posting 27 goals and 11 assists for a total of 38 points in 77 games last season.
Ultimately what does scare me for this Blues team is the blue line. I like Broberg but I'm not a huge fan of the rest. Their goaltending is also a question mark for me. Binnington had a solid year last year but will he be able to replicate it? Will Hofer take a step in his young career?
Like last year, the Blues will finish fifth in the central this season.
4. Winnipeg Jets
Last season the Winnipeg Jets finished with 110 points and second in the Central.
Over the offseason the Jets were quiet. They added Eric Comrie and Kaapo Kahkonen for goaltending depth and also made the one-for-one trade of Rutger McGroarty in return for another prospect, Brayden Yager. McGroarty forced his way out of Winnipeg during the offseason and backed Winnipeg into a corner which led to his trade to Pittsburgh.
Winnipeg is running back essentially the same roster. They started hot last year but fell off in the second half. This has been a trend with Winnipeg for a while, they get a great start and slowly fade by the time the playoffs roll around. They got smacked around in five games last year against Colorado with Hellebuyck not playing to his regular season form and the Jets struggling defensively.
I thought the Jets were a dark horse pick for the Cup last year but I'm out on them this year. To me, they get a wild card spot just because Hellebuyck is a lock to be a Vezina candidate and I think they have enough talent around the rest of the roster.
I like Connor, Vilardi, Perfetti (who still is a RFA), Ehlers, Morrisey and Scheiele had a solid year last year. Outside of that I like DeMelo even if he got paid too much this summer as well as Alex Iafallo.
The Jets have a fine roster and a great goalie. Kyle Connor is going to need to be great, which he usually is and Perfetti needs to take a step although I don't really know if they trust him.
The Jets are fine. They'll finish fourth in the Central.
3. Nashville Predators
Nashville finished last season with 99 points and fourth in the Central.
Nashville was one of the biggest players in the summer. They added Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Brady Skjei, and Scott Wedgewood amongst other organizational depth moves. They lost Ryan McDonagh, Jason Zucker, Kiefer Sherwood, Cody Glass, Yaroslav Askarov and Tyson Barrie.
Askarov forced himself out of Nashville after Saros signed his eight-year extension. Nashville didn't have much leverage and dealt him to San Jose for two prospects and a conditional 2025 first-round draft pick.
I'm a fan of this forward core in Nashville. Stamkos and Marchessault going into the season with a chip on their shoulder is interesting to me. I think they're going to have a great year. On top of that Forsberg is one of the best players in the league that gets little media love, O'Reilly is solid, Nyquist had a great year last year, and I like Tommy Novak. Another step from Luke Evangelista would be great for this team.
The blue line has some great pieces on it. Josi is unreal, I'm a fan of Carrier, and I think Luke Schenn is still a solid third-pair guy. Skjei was given a big deal but I do like him. This defense core on top of their forward core as well as one of the best goalies in the league in Saros should make for a great team.
I had them as one of my top five cup contenders but I think it will take time for the new pieces to gel with each other. I think Nashville finishes third in the central and will be a threat in the playoffs.
2. Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche finished last season with 107 points and third in the Central.
Colorado didn't add much. They signed a new third pair with Oliver Kylington and Erik Brannstrom and the rest of their signings aren't projected to play with the team this season. The majority of their signings that were noteworthy were extensions. The Avs were able to keep Casey Mittelstadt, Jonathan Drouin and their backup goalie Justus Annunen.
They lost Yakov Trenin, Brandon Duhaime, Sean Walker, and Jack Johnson.
The forward core for Colorado does have some question marks around it. Nichushkin is in the NHL/NHLPA players assistance program so we aren't sure if he will play and if he does, when he will play, Landeskog might play but what will that look like if he does back on the ice after missing all of last year. The Avalanche performed well without Landeskog but the loss of Nichushkin is going to hurt Colorado.
Even with those two factors, when you have MacKinnon and Rantanen on your roster you'll score enough goals. They also have Mittelstadt and Drouin who both had solid years last season as well as a solid third-line centre in Ross Colton.
Their goaltending is fine. Georgiev isn't my favourite goalie but you could do worse for a starter. Annunen had a solid year last year in 14 games. He posted a .928 save percentage, 9.86 goals saved above average, and 13.37 goals saved above expected. It is a small sample size and his stats will drop once he plays more games but if he can hover even around a .905, he would be a good backup option.
Where this team is the strongest is on the blue line. Makar is the best defenseman in the league and the pairing of him and Toews is one of the best pairs in the NHL. Girard and Manson was a solid pairing. What is interesting is their third pair. It isn't a third pairing you typically see with Brannstrom and Kylington not being big guys and also being more puck-moving guys rather than bruising defensemen. I do like the bets on the third pair they made. I think there is upside with both guys and they didn't use much cap to sign them.
Colorado has question marks on the forward core but I'm betting on their stars coming through like they usually do. The Avs have home ice against Nashville in round one.
1. Dallas Stars
The Stars won the Central last year with 113 points.
The Stars were fairly busy this summer. They added Ilya Lyubushkin, Matt Dumba, Brendan Smith, Casey DeSmith and Colin Blackwell. They lost Joe Pavelski, Ryan Suter, Chris Tanev, Craig Smith, Scott Wedgewood, Radek Faksa and Jani Hakanpaa.
I'm not a fan of the offseason work for Dallas. Most of their moves were filling holes on the blue line adding Lyubushkin, Dumba and Smith. I wasn't a fan of both the Lyubushkin and Dumba deal and thought they were overpaid.
The blue line looks worse than it did last season with the loss of Tanev. The first pair is currently projected as Heiskanen and Thomas Harley who just got a two-year extension. Heiskanen is great so even though I'm not the biggest fan of the blue line, having one of the best defensemen in the league is huge. They also just locked up their second-pair left-shot defenseman Esa Lindell to a five-year deal with an AAV of 5.25 million.
This team is almost built in the opposite way of Colorado. I'm a huge fan of the forward core. Hintz and Robertson are both great players and they also have great veterans in Duchene, Seguin and Benn. I'm excited to see the steps in Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven's game after they had their coming-out party in the playoffs. This forward core is so deep with a mix of great vets and exciting younger players.
I'm also a big fan of Oettinger in net for Dallas. He had a bit of a down year for his standards last season during the regular season, only posting a .905 save percentage, 0.49 goals saved above average, and 1.46 goals saved above expected. He had a bounce back in the playoffs where he was great and I expect him to have a better regular season this year.
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Dallas will win the Central and be a Cup contender again this season.