Mitch Marner Receiving Misguided Blame for Maple Leafs Playoff Problems
Mitch Marner has been getting all of the blame for the Toronto Maple Leafs' shortcomings. Why is that? I have no clue. Today, I breakdown just how good Marner has been for this Leafs team over the last few NHL Playoff runs.
Mitch Marner's performance in dissected yearly by Toronto Maple Leaf fans, but this year the slander has just gone to a completely new level.
Following Marner's temper tantrum on the Maple Leafs bench in game four of this series against the Boston Bruins, it felt like the entire hockey world decided to jump on the Marner hate train to get some clicks and likes on the internet.
Now, I'll admit that I did not love the look of Marner throwing his gloves like a child, but that will not change my opinion of him as a player.
Sure, Marner has underperformed in the playoffs in the past, but that is ancient history at this point.
Over Marner's last 22 playoff games, he has 24 points. This equates to a 1.09 point per game pace playing against the opposing team's toughest matchup night in and night out. This playoff average is slightly down from his 1.27 point-per-game average over his last three regular-season performances.
All stats from NaturalStatTrick, unless specifiied.
Marner One of Maple Leafs Most Productive Playoff Players in Recent Years
Despite this point-per-game average dropping ever so slightly, all it takes is one look at some stats not seen in the box score to see that Marner has a huge positive impact whenever he is on the ice for this team.
Looking at the last three years (this year and the past two playoff runs), Mitch Marner has the second-best on-ice goals-for-percentage of any Maple Leafs forward over this stretch, next to Jason Spezza, who only played five playoff games with the Leafs compared to Marner's 22.
In addition to that, over these playoff runs, Marner has the fourth best on-ice expected goal for percentage of any Maple Leaf forward only behind Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg who only have four playoff games, and Michael Bunting who would have been Marner's line mate in the Leafs previous two playoff runs.
To add even more, Bunting, Matthews, and Marner, the Maple Leafs' top line in their two previous playoff runs, controlled more than 58% of the scoring chances at five-on-five, and now this year, the combination of Tyler Bertuzzi, Matthews, and Marner is doing the exact same thing.
All it takes is one look past the box score to see Marner has been extremely productive in the playoffs and I find it extremely hard to knock him for his point-per-game average dropping 0.25 per game when opposing goalies have saved +13.23 goals above expected in the Maple Leafs last night playoff games.
In the Panthers and Bruins series last year, it was as simple as the Maple Leafs running into the hottest goaltenders in the NHL.
So far this year, Jeremy Swayman is leading the playoffs in goals saved above expected and last year, Sergei Bobrovsky was second among goalies for the entire playoffs, saving +7.09 goals above expected, with virtually all of these goals saved coming against the Leafs, where he saved +7.75 goals above expected in those five games alone.
Getting Rid of Marner Would Be Maple Leafs Biggest Mistake Yet
Maple Leafs fans are calling for the the "Core Four" to be split up, and being the closed-minded, short-sighted fanbase the we are, the name that comes up is Mitch Marner, because he is "easiest" to move.
With moving Marner, fans want the front office to bring in multiple players to replace mid-level players to replace Marner's value. However, that will not happen, and the Leafs already have the perfect example of that on their roster.
Look at Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi.
The Toronto Maple Leafs brought these two in this past offseason for essentially the same price tag as Mitch Marner. Starting with the basics, neither of these two kill penalties; Marner does. Neither of these two would be close to as productive on the powerplay as Marner, and in addition, Marner is a far superior defender to both of these guys.
Now if you look at their actual production, Marner has 85 points this season in 69 games, only five points less than Bertuzzi and Domi combined who both played 80 games.
This 85 points in 69 games is good for a 1.23 point-per-game pace compared to Domi and Bertuzzi who both combined for 1.11 points-per-game this season.
The Real Reason The Maple Leafs Are Struggling
This idea that a couple of mid-level players will make up Marner's value is insane and completely misses the Leafs' core issues. So far this postseason, the Leafs are giving up 3.5 goals per game; they also have the third-most defensive zone turnovers of all playoff teams and the fourth-highest percentage of giveaways coming in the defensive zone (via MoneyPuck).
The Leafs' offensive players are doing a very good job creating scoring chances, considering they can not get the puck out of the defensive zone. In addition, the Leafs have six defensemen who have given the puck away more than they have taken it away.
To me, Marner deserves none of this blame. The Leafs' blueline is nowhere near the quality of other teams in the playoffs. You could almost argue that it is one of the worst bluelines ever to make it to the playoffs.
This notion that the Leafs need to move Marner to free up cap space to improve this blueline is garbage.
The Leafs will have another 20 million dollars in cap space this coming offseason. This will be more than enough to retool the defensive group. Look at the Florida Panthers, who were one of the best defensive teams in hockey and only paid their entire defensive group 21 million dollars (via CapFriendly), which is the same amount the Maple Leafs have spent on their abomination of what they call defensemen.
The Leafs are in a good spot cap wise, with Reilly, McCabe signed, the Leafs need to find two to four defenseman. They have Robertson, Bobby McMann or Knies ready to play in the top six next season.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are only one year away from John Tavares's horrid contract expiring, and T.J. Brodie's five million-per-year contract runs out after this playoff run (via CapFriendly). Doing something as drastic as trading Mitch Marner would go down as one of the worst decisions the team has ever made.