Maple Leafs Regression Fears + 50 in 50 + 50 for Hyman + Robertson Playoffs
The Toronto Maple Leafs are the NHL's second-best team since the completely arbitrary date of January 18th.
During this time, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the NHL's highest scoring team, both 5v5 and overall, and while their numbers suggest they are crazily outperforming what their results should be, at least their goaltending isn't propping them up.
The Leafs have very average goaltending over this streak. The Samsonov Redemption story has played nicely and his win-loss record looks great, but realistically, he's been league-average at best, allowing three goals most every night.
Can the Leafs sustain this? Not likley. Teams that vastly outperform their Expected Goals for an extended period of time almost always have to sufferer a massive correction when regression kicks in. However, teams that outperform their Xgoals Percentage usually do it with goaltending, not scoring.
The Leafs - with Marner, Tavares, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Domi, McMann, Robertson and Auston Matthews himself - might just be able to. (stats naturalstattrick.com). They should still probably be a bit worried about it, however.
50 in 50
With "only" three goals in his last six games Auston Matthews has fallen off the 50 in 50 pace ("Just" a 40 Goal Pace as a negative haha!)
Looking to hit the magic number for the second time in his career, Matthews now needs six goals in his next two games to have 50 in his last 50.
Some people only care about his if it happens from the season's first game, but that's arbitrary nonsense.
Goalie for the Playoffs
Joseph Woll doesn't have great numbers since he came back from injury, but that's to be expected. Ilya Samsonov doesn't have great numbers even though the Leafs have been the best team in the NHL (more or less) for two+ months.
The decision is easy.
Joseph Woll has stolen several games this season and the Leafs have points in at least four games because of him. Samsonov? Not so much.
In the NHL, people stupidly consider experience to be a deciding factor, but, at least for goalies, this is silly. Goalies fluctuate wildly. You cannot ever know what a goalie will do, if you could, the biggest star in the league, the "Connor McDavid" if you will, of the NHL at any given time would be a goalie, not the best skater.
So who cares about experience, play the most talented player. That is Woll hands down.
T.J Brodie
He stinks and the Leafs are stuck with him. You could hear in Sheldon Keefe's comments (where he eroniously tried to say Brodie was playing better than getting credit for) that he isn't going to put his main guy from the last several years out to pasture just yet.
The Leafs framed the Brodie scratch as a "reset" and, based on their words at least, are obviosly not planning to keep sitting him.
This is unfortunate, because a former star falling off but still getting the benefit of the doubt is an absolute killer.
Hyman Contract
You have to trust the process, not the results. That means even when you get one wrong, you need to know that you followed the right thought process to come to your decision. If you do that, you can trust that over the long-term you will get more right than wrong.
Zach Hyman was 29, he wanted to double his salary and be paid until he was 37. He had had two recent knee injuries and plays a style that doesn't lend itself to staying healthy.
His career high was 21 goals and 41 points. NHL players typically decline as they hit 30, so there was absolutely no reason to think he'd gett better instead of worse.
When he was up for a new contract, he had 5 goals in 31 career playoff games.
So when the Oilers gave him seven years and over $5 million per year, I laughed. I said it was the worst contract in NHL History, and I meant it. I stand by it. It was an idiotic bet. I once saw a guy win a poker tournament by betting everything he had on an unsuited, pre-flop two and seven. That's what the Oilers did.
Brag about it if you want, but it's like bragging to the guy who saves half his paycheck and lives frugally that you won the lottery.
And Don't forget, for the two years before this one, Michael Bunting outperformed Zach Hyman (who wouldn't be on the Leafs power-play) at 5v5 by a signficant margin for 5x less money.
All that said, Hyman is an awesome player, I'm a huge fan of his and I'm glad he scored 50 goals. I wish he did it in Toronto, but the Leafs were right to let him walk based on the information available to them at the time.
Nick Robertson
He's clearly an NHL player, and a good one.
He is one of the Leafs most efficient scorers and he's winning his minutes. He's hungry, he wants to play. That's awesome, I don't know why that bugs people - if he didn't feel that way he probably wouldn't have what it takes to become a pro.
The thing is, on a healthy Leafs team, one that isn't hurting for offense, he will sit so the coach can play Pontus Holmberg and Calle Jarnrkok. Those guys just give the coach more options, and they better fit the profile of a playoff player.
Guys like Robertson are at a disadvantage because NHL coaches are always playing for their jobs and that leads to assumptions about the kind of player you want in the lineup.
The Leafs aren't a particularly good defensive team, they have bad goaltending and a weak blue-line. Their best feature is their scoring, and so they're eventually going to need Robertson.
He won't be their first choice, but teams need more than 12 guys to grind out four rounds of playoff hockey, so eventually he'll get the call.
That shouldn't be controversial - it should be really hard for a rookie to break into the NHL on a Cup Contending team. The Leafs will probably find that with Jarnkrok, Reaves, Kampf, Dewar and Holmberg that they don't score enough. Robertson will eventually have a better career than all those guys.
manual
But the fact is, one of the few edges the Leafs have over other teams is their depth at forward. Nick Robertson would be a regular on most, if not all, other NHL teams. His time is coming, but it's a pretty good thing for everyone involved if someone who is scoring at a first-line rate in the NHL is ready and waiting to come off the bench.