3 major X-Factors that will make or break the rest of the Maple Leafs season
We are in the back half of February, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are holding onto a wild card, so what will ultimately determine whether they return to the playoffs?
Since Auston Matthews arrived in Toronto, the Maple Leafs have been one of the most relevant and fun hockey teams to follow. While their success in the playoffs hasn’t been what fans are looking for, Toronto is in contention each season, and they are routinely one of the best regular season teams in the NHL.
But through mid-February, the Maple Leafs have seen more than their fair share of turbulence. They haven’t looked good on the penalty kill, and one major reason has come from their so-so ability to play sound defense and their struggling goaltenders.
Given these struggles, Toronto has had to rely on their biggest playmakers offensively, including Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner. Ideally, improvements to the PK, and by extension, defense and goaltending, will take pressure off Toronto’s biggest scorers. And they are the primary X-Factors that will make or break the final two months of the Maple Leafs season.
The Maple Leafs penalty kill continues to put forth pedestrian results
The Maple Leafs have been a below-average team defensively all season, and that has affected their special teams. While Toronto’s power play has converted a remarkable 26.35 percent of their opportunities into goals, the penalty kill has been an entirely different story.
Through February 16th, Toronto has stifled an opponent’s power play just 78.23 percent of the time. This is nearly 1.5 percent lower than the league average and it ranks 22nd in the NHL. Among the 16 teams currently in a playoff spot, Toronto’s PK unit ranks 15th, ahead of only the Winnipeg Jets (77.7).
They are also one of just three teams currently in a playoff spot who rank in the bottom half of the league, with the St. Louis Blues being the third team on that list. These statistics tell us something important: If you want to maximize your chances of making the playoffs, you need a sound penalty kill.
Toronto’s defense and goaltending need to improve in the final two months
The Maple Leafs may be legitimate playoff contenders, but that doesn’t mean they’re receiving an automatic bid for the postseason. Toronto, having spent the previous six seasons as a top-three team in the Atlantic, could see that streak ending, and you can place a lot of blame in the defensive zone.
Trading for a defenseman would be the quickest way to help fix this problem, and luckily for Toronto, they may be interested in quite a few. There are also several sound goaltenders who would also help the Maple Leafs solve their issues at goaltender, so a lot of hope remains that they can clear up their respective problems by early March and stay on track.
While trading for someone like Sean Walker or Jacob Markstrom would increase the odds for Toronto to climb back into the Atlantic’s top-three, it doesn’t guarantee that the player they acquire would ultimately factor in as a good fit.
Either way, making a move before the deadline is the best way for this team to at least sneak into the postseason and hopefully go further than they did in 2023. What Toronto can’t afford, however, is to sit back and do nothing because it will make their road to return to the playoffs that much tougher.
Matthews, Nylander, and Marner must keep up their stellar seasons
Auston Matthews has been one of the NHL’s most exciting players since he entered the league in 2016. But he’s taken his game even further this season with 66 points and 45 goals in 51 contests, putting him on an epic pace to tie his career-high of 106 points. Nylander (68 points, 27 goals), and Marner (60 points, 22 goals) have been one of the best high-scoring trios out there and their efforts have collectively kept Toronto in contention through mid-February.
This trio must continue to play an elite level of hockey if the Maple Leafs are to hold off would-be contenders like the Detroit Red Wings, New Jersey Devils, and the New York Islanders, all of whom find themselves within seven points of Toronto as of February 16th. If they maintain their epic respective paces, don’t expect many opponents to keep up with the sixth-best-scoring team in hockey.
This isn’t to say others like Morgan Rielly (when he returns) and John Tavares aren’t key contributors who have immensely contributed this season. But after Tavares, there is a huge drop-off in production with Max Domi (25 points) as the team’s next-highest scorer. If Toronto wants to continue their up-tempo scoring (and winning), guys like Matthews, Marner, and Nylander must at least maintain their pace, with Rielly and Tavares closely following.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference as of February 16th)