If the Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Mitch Marner It Would Be a Massive Mistake
Trade talks continue to swirl around Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner as the NHL Playoffs continue to roll along.
Through all the speculation, mock trades, and general complaints, I have yet to hear a good reason why the Toronto Maple Leafs have to part ways with Marner.
Sure, Marner did not produce the offence we are accustomed to seeing from him in the series against the Bruins.
However, no player on the Leafs did as they ran into the hottest goalie in the NHL, Jeremy Swayman, who leads all goalies who have made a start in the playoffs in save percentage and goals saved above expected per 60 minutes.
IF the Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Mitch Marner It Would Be a Massive Mistake
In addition to running into the hottest goalie in the NHL, Maple Leafs head coach did not set his best playmaker up for success as he was stuck with John Tavares shadowing Boston's first line for the first half of the series.
In the other half of the series, Marner played with Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi, who, for one, are not goal scorers and, two, need help to think and play the game at the same pace Marner can.
I understand that fans are angry and tired of seeing the same old song and dance, but blaming Marner is just scapegoating the Maple Leafs' real issues, which start in the Front Office. I will stand by what I said mid-series against the Bruins: Trading Marner would be one of the worst decisions in Maple Leaf history.
Maple Leafs Trading Mitch Marner Would Be a Massive Mistake
First, let's look at Marner's performance against the Bruins. Sure, Marner was only on the ice for three goals in the series, but he recorded points for all three.
But look a little bit deeper. You will find that Marner's line was extremely unlucky as he was on the ice for 9.06 expected goals, which was the most of any Maple Leaf forward in this series.
In addition, the Leafs out-chanced the Bruins 89 to 58 and were +15 in the high-danger chance category while Marner was on the ice in this series, but no one wants to hear this stuff.
Everyone wants to glaze over all of the positive things Marner did in the playoffs just to push a narrative that Marner is "soft" and not built for the playoffs. But this narrative couldn't be further from the truth either, as Marner has graded out as a top-five defender in the playoffs since 2017 (via Dom Luszczyszyn).
Statistically speaking, there is no good reason to get rid of Mitch Marner.
It is not just Marner who has struggled offensively in the playoffs. The whole team has struggled over the last three years, only scoring 2.64 goals per 60 minutes in the playoffs, compared to the 3.58 goals per 60 they have averaged over that stretch in the regular season.
But now, let's address the other reason the Maple Leafs want Mitch Marner moved… The salary cap.
The Maple Leafs Do Not Have a Salary Cap Problem
Despite what most people believe, the Toronto Maple Leafs are not going to be strapped against the Salary Cap this offseason. In fact, they are quite the opposite.
The Maple Leafs have 12 contracts coming off the books this season, freeing up $24,059,167. In addition to that, the NHL's salary cap is being raised by $4,125,000, the most significant raise since the 2018 offseason.
This will give the Maple Leafs $28,184,167 to work with, but when you factor in Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Bobby McMann and Simon Benoits contract extensions that come into effect next season, the Leafs will have $20,861,780 to work with
Realistically, this would be more than enough money to fill the holes in the Leafs roster.
Here is a quick breakdown of those holes the Maple Leafs have to fill, assuming they don't want to move on from Jarnkrok, Kampf, Reaves and Holmberg as the 3C.
Knies - Matthews - Marner
Hole - Tavares - Nylander
McMann - Holmberg - Jarnkrok
Hole - Kampf - Reaves
Reilly - Hole
McCabe - Hole
Benoit - Hole
Woll
Hole
Looking at it this way, the Leafs could spend an average of 3.5 million dollars per player to fill out this roster. They will likely be able to re-sign restricted free agents Nick Robertson and Timothy Liljegren for below that price.
Given Robertson's offensive production last season, he is ready for a much bigger role with this team and could consistently slot in in the top six forwards; Liljegren continues to improve and will be acceptable to play on the Leafs' second pairing.
This projected lineup assumes that none of the Leafs prospects is ready to jump to the NHL. Still, some of these prospects would be prepared to play, considering Fraser Minten had a phenomenal year in the WHL, and Easton Cowen dominated the OHL.
The Maple Leafs will be able to use the bulk of this salary cap space to find a starting goaltender in case Woll is not the guy for the job and two defencemen: one bona fide defender who can play on the top line with Reilly and a puck mover to slot in beside Simon Benoit.
Given that both Marner and John Taveres's contracts expire next season, it would be reckless for the Leafs to try to create a salary cap by getting into trade talks surrounding Marner, considering they have little to no leverage.
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The Maple Leafs need to make some changes, but those changes cannot include selling one of the best players in franchise history for pennies on the dollar just because they are disappointed with the team's playoff results.