Grading The Toronto Maple Leafs Prospect Pool
At the 2024 NHL Draft the Toronto Maple Leafs added eight players to their prospect pool.
This is the most the Toronto Maple Leafs have added in any single draft since 2020 and as of right now the most they will add for the foreseeable future.
The prospect group has taken a hit in recent years due to the Leafs being firmly in their contention window.
Their draft slot is usually low and between trading future picks and prospects as well as a few key graduates, it leaves the pool with much to be desired.
Both Knies and Robertson were consistently in the lineup, or in Robertson’s case at least on the roster.
Goaltender Joseph Woll played 25 games this year and at points was the starting goalie before injuries.
Pontus Holmberg did spend some time with the Marlies but played over 50 regular season games as well as all seven playoff games.
This means all four of them have officially graduated from prospect status.
All of these factors combined have lead the Leafs pool to become relatively understocked in key areas.
Despite this, there are some very interesting players and I think it would be a good time to take an inventory and grade them out just to see where the pool is at.
Forwards
Grade: B-
Notable players: Easton Cowan, Fraser Minten, Nikita Grebyonkin, Ryan Tverberg, Miroslav Holinka, Ty Voit
The Leafs prospect pool upfront lacks a lot of the high end talent that it had just under a decade ago. However, with the emergence of Easton Cowan winning the Most Outstanding Player of the Year award in the OHL and the playoffs MVP.
As well as Grebyonkin capturing the KHL’s Rookie of the Year award two seasons ago and taking some bigger steps this past season, they have a wide range of interesting talents. Both could even challenge for a spot in the NHL after Grebyonkin signed his ELC a few months ago and moved to North America.
Cowan and Grebyonkin have raised their ceilings in a massive way and at this point project to become top-six forwards.
At this stage, they appear to have the highest ceilings but there is a good number of others that project to become NHL contributors. The most notable are probably Fraser Minten and Ryan Tverberg.
Minten has all of the smarts to turn into a solid middle-six/third line forward where Tverberg could easily outplay his projection. His gritty game seems to make him a lock to at least be a future NHL call-up/depth piece while his puckhound playstyle and skill level suggests he could play up and down an NHL lineup as a passenger.
A player like Sam McCue fits a similar mould but he is early in his development so we won’t know for a few years.
The Leafs added recent draftees at the 2024 NHL Draft like the aforementioned Sam McCue, Miroslav Holinka, and Alexander Plesovskikh. It is very early in these players’ development curves so it is hard to tell exactly how they project but Holinka, who recently turned heads at development camp, appears to have the highest NHL potential. The other two seem likely to be more role players if they do in fact make the NHL someday.
Just past the three mentioned above, there is Nick Moldenhauer who was drafted in 2022 and Hudson Malinoski who was drafted in 2023. They are both 20 and both just completed their freshman years in the NCAA with similar rates of production. They seem like project picks and likely will spend at least a couple more seasons in College before turning pro.
Ty Voit who battled through injuries this year was a prolific producer in juniors and is one of those prospects who seems like a true wildcard.
He has high end vision and playmaking, producing 155 assists in 183 games with the Sarnia Sting. He also looked to be well above the competition of the ECHL racking up six assists and eight points in only five games this past season. The other attributes is what will define his NHL potential, especially as an undersized player at 5-10 and 161lbs.
There are a few more forwards that fit the “undersized” tag but their NHL projection seems a little more murky. Those would be 5-10 Harvard University forward Joe Miller and 5-9 soon-to-be Marlies forward Braeden Kressler.
Both have projectable NHL skating and playmaking abilities with Miller possessing more pizzazz and Kressler more of a two-way forward. They seem like the prototypical undersized forwards who’s size may be the limiting factor. Though, we have seen a number of small forwards go on to have good-to-great NHL careers, it is always hard to bet on them. Especially given the current regimes reliance on size.
Outside of these players mentioned, there are some others who are either older or who’s NHL potential seems a little murkier. Players like: Alex Steeves, Roni Hirvonen, Nick Abruzzese, and Jacob Quillan. The jury is still out on these players but with them all being 22 years old or older, their runways are starting to get smaller.
As I said before, the pool lacks legitimate star potential but with the emergence of Cowan and with some rounded off depth, the forward prospects look promising. There are a few who project to be at the very least middle-six forwards in the NHL someday with the most notable being Cowan, Minten, and Grebyonkin. But, players like Tverberg, Voit, and Holinka amongst others have some legitimate NHL upside too.
Defensemen
Grade: C-
Notable Players: Topi Niemela, Ben Danford, Noah Chadwick, Cade Webber, Mikko Kokkonen
The Leafs lack both depth and impact in their defense prospects.
Topi Niemela looks like he still has the most upside and having just turned 22, he has some runway left to continue developing but he will have to take strong steps forward in the next few seasons.
Aside from him, the pool lacks legitimate top-four upside. Players like Noah Chadwick and recent first round pick Ben Danford are intriguing but both have flaws which could limit their impact at the next level.
Danford has yet to show real offensive potential but he is a smooth skater and has the defensive abilities to be a useful piece and if he can develop his offensives game more, he could end up being the best of the current crop. Chadwick has great size and took a very strong step on the offensive side of the game this past year but his skating could be an attribute that holds him back.
Outside of these three, most of the pool looks bleak with a few players that have limited potential. William Villeneuve showed strong offense in juniors despite some concerns with his mobility and has yet to breakout in a big way with the Marlies but has taken some strides to round out his game.
Mikko Kokkonen is the opposite in almost every way and impressed Sheldon Keefe at last year’s training camp. At this point, he will turn 24 midway through next year and will need to break through at some point soon.
Another key player is Cade Webber, the Leafs traded a sixth round pick for his rights at the deadline and have since signed him to an entry level contract that will expire at the end of next year. Given Treliving’s eagerness to acquire him it seems likely that he will be given a shot in the near future.
The D-group lacks impact players and as of right now, there are only two players I would say have legitimate second-pair potential, which that might even be a stretch. Aside from that, there are a few who do project to play primarily bottom-pair roles but there is not a lot of NHL project-ability in the pool currently, outside of a handful of guys.
Goaltenders
Grade: B-
Notable Players: Dennis Hildeby, Artur Akhtyamov, Vyacheslav Peksa, Timofei Obvintsev
The Leafs goaltending prospects are similar to the forward group in that there are no widely accepted “elite” tier prospects but a handful of good ones.
Arguably the best and highest potential one is 22 year old Dennis Hildeby.
He wasn’t a high profile player earlier in his career which lead to him being drafted in the fourth round at the 2022 Draft when he was less than two months from turning 21. Since then, he has had a meteoric rise in his short time in the system and took over the starting job with the Toronto Marlies in his first season in North America.
He has a very intriguing physical profile fitting the new age size of a goaltender at 6-7. It’s very plausible that he sees games as early as this upcoming season but with both Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz having contracts for the next two years, his path to a full-time NHL job seems a little muddy.
The next three are Russian goalkeepers, following with the trends in recent years. Akhtyamov and Peksa are the two who are most seasoned and who have been in the organization the longest having been drafted in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Akhtyamov is 22 and after having just had a breakout year where he played 17 games in the KHL and held a .921 SV% good for sixth amongst U-23 netminders. He also captured the second tier VHL championship and the best goaltender award.
Peksa, who after playing the most games amongst goaltenders in the MHL in 2021-22 and sat third with a .936 SV%, adjusted well to the VHL the following year. There, he immediately took over the starters role and sat fourth amongst U-21 goalies with a .921 SV%.
He came over to North America this past season, as arguably the team's top goalie prospect and played primarily with the ECHL’s Newfoundland Growlers as a third-string and struggled with an .890 SV%. It is unclear where he will fit into the fold this upcoming season with six goalies under contract but hopefully he can at least get an increased role with the Leafs’ new ECHL affiliate, the Cincinnati Cyclones.
The newest goalie in the Leafs’ pool is 2024 Draftee, 19-year-old Timofei Obvintsev. He played well in the CSKA Moscow system for their MHL team but currently seems to be stuck in a three-way goaltending tandem.
I would assume he follows in the footsteps of Akhtyamov and Peksa and spends the next few seasons developing and rising the ranks. Given the current situation between the pipes in Toronto, I would anticipate we will not see him in North America for at least a couple seasons barring major shifts in the depth chart. For right now and as is the case with most prospects, he is a work in progress.
Again, the pool lacks a true high-end netminder but both Hildeby and Akhtyamov seem like they have the potential to be solid NHL goaltenders, likely in more of a 1A/1B tandem type of role.
Peksa played great in Russia and although he struggled last season, it’s hard to judge given the track record and considering it was his first North American season. The true potential for Obvintsev is yet to be determined but the early signs look somewhat positive for his NHL prospects.( Stats and Information Via EliteProspects.com).
Overall: C+
As I said numerous times, the Toronto Maple Leafs prospect pool is lacking in true high-end talent. No player currently looks to have even a really good chance at being a top-line player or surefire starting goalie. The players with the possibility of having meaningful impact are few and far between where most of the players in the pool look to be future depth pieces.
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Being realistic I think there are maybe 10 players who look poised to play NHL games which is not really very good, but considering how long the Leafs have been contending, it's about the best you could hope for.