Breaking down the Toronto Maple Leafs 2024-25 Blue-Line

The Toronto Maple Leafs blue-line in last year's playoffs was a very big mess and a massive weakness for the team.

In the history of the NHL Trade Deadline, you'd be hard-pressed to find a manager that mis-read his team's strengths and weaknesses as badly as Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving did at last year's Trade Deadline.

First, any person who has risen up to run a big, multi-million dollar organization should be smart enough to understand the most basic principle of managing anything is that the fastest and best path to improvement is to lean into what you're already good at. I realize the NHL is the rare place where uneducated people can rise up to run organizations because of their playing careers and a general nepotism that has permeated the league for years, but for a manager to not know this basic thing is, frankly, pathetic and embarassing.

The Leafs led the NHL in 5v5 scoring last season. A reasonable path to improve them would be to add players that will make them better at what they are good at. This doesn't mean that you shouldn't address weaknesses, it just means that doing a .180 and attempting to change your game completely is a terrible idea.

The Leafs didn't add any offense at the deadline. They added three defensive players, including Connor Dewar, a 4th line replacement player who could have been replaced by any Marlie without anyone noticing or any results changing. The other two were both slow defenseman who can't shoot, pass or move the puck at an NHL level.

The Leafs dressed a blue-line that featured Morgan Rielly and sometimes Timothy Liljegren, and then some variation of Edmundson, McCabe, Lyubushkin, Brodie and Benoit. Of their seven defenseman, one is a great puck mover, one is average, and five are way, way below average. Predictably this hurt their ability to score goals. The Leafs failed to score more than three goals for the entirity of their series against the Bruins. They also only scored three goals once, and two or less six times.

Their poorly constructed blue-line only exasperated their already existent problem with scoring goals when their four superstars weren't the ones scoring.

Treliving seemed to realize his error and he let Lyubushkin and Edmundson walk this summer. But did he do enough to improve the Leafs blue-line? Four of the same players are back (Rielly, McCabe, Benoit, Liljegren) and they will be joined by two geezers on the downside of their careers, but who can at least move the puck. Of course Treliving couldn't just go the entire summer without doing something mindbreakingly stupid, so he also signed Jani Hakanpaa for reasons inexplicable.

Hopefully the Leafs get a mulligan on that one, but either way, barring the entrance of Topi Niemela, the Leafs blue-line will once again be below average at moving the puck, something a team with Nylander, Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Domi should not have to deal with.

With all that said, let's break down the Leafs blue-line for the upcoming season. (cap info from puckpedia.com and stats from naturalstattrick.com).

Morgan Rielly

The 5th overall pick from the 2012 draft is going to turn 31 this season. Morgan Rielly is behind only Borje Salming and Tomas Kaberle at this point, in terms of being the best Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman of the post-expansion era.

Rielly's 472 points put him 15th in the history of the franchise, 48 points behind Kaberle and 3rd for defenseman overall. He's likely not going to be a hall of famer, but if the Leafs win a cup he'll likely end up right on the verge just like Kaberle. Not quite hall material, but it's not ridiculous to think he might be good enough in a league that thought to enshrine Jeremy Roenick.

Rielly's game is based on skating, intelligence and his elite ability to move the puck. He might not be as great as he once was, but he's aging nicely and is coming off a very good season. 138 defenseman played over 1000 5v5 minutes in the NHL last year, and Rielly scored at the 15th highest rate.

Last season, Rielly has his 8th straight season with a positive corsi - he drives play and makes his team have the puck more when he's on the ice. The Leafs scored 51% of the shots and 54% of the goals when he played. One slight warning sign: for the first time since the Leafs were a garbage non-playoff team, Rielly was under 50% in expected goals percentage, however he was only at 49%.

In his best seasons, the NHL's best defenseman, Cale Makar, is between 56-61% expected goals, numbers Rielly has never touched, but that should give you an idea of what the best defenseman in the NHL can do. Clearly, the Toronto Maple Leafs do not have an elite number-one top-of-the-league defenseman.

One caveat, however. Rielly might be slightly better than we think because last year he was partnered with TJ Brodie and Brodie's game fell off big-time. Rielly could see one of those rare late career improvements we usually only see on ex-Leafs when he teams up with Tanev, but we can't exactly count on that.

Nothing against Rielly, he's great, but he's not an elite player. and he's starting to slip. This is bad news for the Leafs because Star Players are so important in the NHL that a team would be better off with Cale Makar and five replacement players than they would be with no superstar but six above average players.

Because the Leafs don't have a Top Dawg, like Makar, Adam Fox, Dougie Hamilton, Charlie McAvoy or Mikko Heiskanen they are already at a disadvantage when it comes to building their blue-line.

Chris Tanev

Of the 138 defenseman who played 1000 5v5 minutes last year, Tanev ranked 25th in Expected Goals Percentage, and he'd rank even higher if you eliminated all the third-pairing guys ahead of him.

Tanev is the NHL's premier defensive defenseman and he can move the puck quite well too. If not for the fact that he's 34 years-old and playing in a league where players tend to fall hard and fast once they hit 30, the Leafs would have the legitamate number-one guy I complained in the Rielly slide that they are missing.

It was still worth the risk to sign him, but after TJ Brodie went from a Star to a Replacement Player in the span of six months, it's hard to trust an old defenseman.

In the best case scenario, he ages like Zdeno Chara and continues to be an elite NHL number-one defenseman, while Morgan Rielly has his best season, completely rejuvenated by finally having a good partner.

In the worst case scenario, he gets injured in training camp and barely contributes anything due to the fact he's one of the oldest good players in the NHL.

It's impossible to evaluate Tanev. Maybe the Leafs got the most impactful player who changed teams this off-season and maybe this was Brad's worst move yet. Undercutting all of this is that Tanev doesn't really have the offense to be a truly elite defender. He has a career high 28 points

If healthy, and if he doesn't decline, Tanev provides the abilty to break up plays, and the abilty to move the puck. Unlike most other defensive defenders, he doesn't tend to get hemmed in his own zone and he actually has value to his team at 5v5. He breaks up rushes, he starts rushes, and he makes the team extremely hard to play against because 6'2 200 lbs and mean as hell.

Five years ago, Rielly-Tanev is the top pairing in the entire NHL, outside of Colorado, at least. Today, it's a toss up. They might be great, and they might not be.

Jake McCabe

With 75% of his salary retained by the brilliant trade Kyle Dubas made in his last deadline with the Leafs, Jake McCabe is an incredibly valuable player to the Leafs.

At his full salary though, not so much.

McCabe has nights when he looks like a top pairing player, and then he has other nights when you realize why he played on bad teams for the majority of his career. He's the guy who tantalizes with his best game, but rarely gives it to you.

McCabe's biggest problem is that he can't move the puck. If he could pass like Tanev, he might be a poor-man's version, which would be a damn good second pairing player. As it is, he's a slightly above average player giving you great value for the tiny cap hit, but not much more.

It took playing on the league's highest scoring 5v5 team for McCabe to hit a career high of 28 points, but I doubt we'll see that again this year, considering he scored eight times and doubled his previous career high, which was a total fluke.

McCabe will turn 31 when the season starts, and like Rielly and Tanev, there is a huge risk that he completely falls off the proverbial cliff. Considering his contract makes him valuable and other team's tend to be kind of dumb, and considering he can play the right side, the Leafs would be smart to move him now for a player who can move the puck more effectively.

Unfortunately, selling high doesn't seem to be in Treliving's tool box and that's unlikely to happen. The Leafsiest thing that can happen, and which almost certainly will, is that the team signs him to an ill-advised extension.

Last year, the Leafs won his minutes handily and he posted a solid 52% expected goals rating from the second pairing. That's decent and if he does that again the Leafs will be very happy. Unfortunately, like the other two guys listed ahead of him on the depth chart, he's old and in decline.

He also can't move the puck, which makes him a bad fit for an offense-first team. But, all things considered, given his salary and role, and his propensity to go through periods where he's unplayable, he is, at best, an average #3.

Timothy Liljegren

For years Timothy Liljegren has put up near-elite numbers from the third pairing but struggled when given harder competition and more responsibility. Though to be fair, he had periods last year where he was deployed on the top and second pairings and he was decent, if not great.

While the Leafs could use Oliver Ekman-Larson on their second-pairing and Liljegren on the third, no one knows what Craig Berube will do yet. However, because of his youth, potential, and puck-moving ability, the Leafs should use Liljegren on the second-pairing, at least to start with. There was no point in keeping him around and re-signing him if he's just going to play on the third pairing.

If he holds down the job, the team is that much better. But an OEL / McCabe pairing is not the second-pairing of a cup contender, and in fact would be very much below average, so the Leafs better pray that Liljegren can handle the harder minutes.

Last year the Leafs won his minutes and his Expected Goals Percentage was a respectable 53%. Considering he played mostly on the third pairing, those numbers can't really be trusted. What we do know is that he only really ever had one professional coach in the AHL and NHL and that coach didn't trust him at all.

Was Keefe right, or just biased and unable to see Liljegren's growth? We'll learn the answer to that question this year, but for a contending team, McCabe/Liljegren as the second pairing doesn't exactly scream STANLEY CUP.

In a best-case scenario, McCabe doesn't decline and Liljegren takes a step forward and the Leafs have, what, an average to slightly above average second pairing? I just don't think that's good enough.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

The Toronto Maple Leafs made a very dumb decision to sign OEL that is, unfortunately becoming a signature move of sorts for the team's current management group. That is to say that OEL is a somewhat safe, name-brand pick that has almost no upside or chance to return value on his contract.

The problem with signing OEL is that he just played the left side of Florida's 3rd pairing and posted the exact same numbers as the Leafs got from Mark Giordano playing the left side of their third pairing last season.

Only problem? Giordano did it on a one-year $900K league-minimum contract, while the Leafs inexplicably gave OEL four-years and $3.5 million. That is an incredibly wastful use of cap space because OEL is 33 and has basically no upside - he will only get worse.

The Leafs - or any team - can get the numbers Gio or OEL put up on the 3rd pairing for the league minimum with no committment. Since that is the case, smart teams give these roles to rookies who have upside, not veterens on decline making 4 x the league minimum.

The Leafs can't really win here - either OEL is one of the most overpaid 3rd pairing players in the NHL, or they play McCabe out of position and have OEL as one of the worst second-pairing players in the league while preventing Liljegren from further growth.

I guess there is a scenario where OEL is on the second pairing and McCabe/Benoit is the third pairing, but the latter pairing is so bad at moving the puck their long-term success is an extreme longshot despite posting very good numbers together last season.

On the positive side, OEL is a strong puck mover and an intelligent player. Unfortunately, any time he's been tasked with playing tougher minutes since leaving Phoenix, he has not done well. The Leafs were in need of puck-movers, and they got one, but they should have just saved their money and went with a Benoit/Niemela 3rd pairing.

Conor Timmins / Simon Benoit / Topi Niemela / Mikko Kokkonen / Cade Weber / Jani Hakanpaa

Conor Timmins and Simon Benoit both make more than the league minimum, which is absolutely asanine. The Leafs pay so much money to their top players that they are supposed to be getting by with league-minimum players at the bottom of the roster.

And yet, they have some of the most overpaid 4th line and 3rd pairing players in the NHL. If Treliving wasn't prepared to stick with the Studs and Duds style his predessessor set up, then he shouldn't have re-signed William Nylander, and kept the Morgan Rielly, John Tavares and Mitch Marner on the roster. The Leafs are instead stuck with an unworkable hybrid version of two competing philosphies and it's highly unlikely to work, barring Joseph Woll winning the Vezina.

Niether Timmins nor Benoit has the upside to be worth paying more than the league minimum, and as such both players should be traded and replaced with rookies. It would only be a slight savings, but every dollar counts.

Timmins never really got a shot under Keefe, and while he's posted OK numbers whenever called upon, it's unclear if he has a future on the Toronto blue-line.

Simon Benoit was one of the worst players in the NHL before coming to Torotno, but he had a strong season last year and posted decent numbers. The Leafs might have something here, who knows? Benoit is a phsyical player, but he's really bad with the puck, unfortunately, and that limits his usage.

Ideally, he's a solid injury replacement that you can trust as a number-seven defenseman. With McCabe and Tanev, the Leafs aren't desperate for size and toughness on the blue-line, but with Rielly, OEL and Liljegren they aren't exactly that intimidating either. Therefore Benoit has as good a chance as anyone to earn ice-time as the team's sixth defender.

Two players standing in his way are Topi Niemela and Mikko Kokkonen. Both of these long serving Leafs prospects are approaching make or break time with their NHL careers. The time to transition to the NHL, if they are going to, is probably this year. Niemela is the better puck-mover, and Kokkonen is likely going to top out as a decent third pairing guy, if he makes it.

Both should compete for jobs in camp, and frankly, given the Leafs cap situation and their overall blue-line composition, they should have just come into the season with jobs up for grabs and then filled in those jobs as necessary at the trade deadline.

Cade Weber was acquired from the Predators at the dealine, he might be something as he's absolutely huge, but he is unlikely to make a difference. Same goes with Jani Hakanpaa who may or may not even end up on the team due to a pre-existing injury. He is another player the Leafs inexplicably paid more than necessary to have him compete for ice time against rookies.