Assessing the Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup chances ahead of Training Camp

The Toronto Maple Leafs will open Training Camp next week after the current Rookie Camp concludes.

The Toronto Maple Leafs haven't played in about five months, but they have had a busy off-season: they changed coaches and captains, re-signed Max Domi, let Tyler Bertuzzi walk, refused to replace him, ignored the need to get a top goalie or third line centre, traded for and signed Chris Tanev to an insane contract that completely ignores his age, and then signed Oliver Ekman-Larsson to one of the worst contracts in the NHL.

The Leafs then signed Nick Robertson to a contract extension, invited a couple of unnecessary players to camp on PTOs and signed Jani Hakanpaa to steal minutes from a higher-upside prospect. They still have not signed Mitch Marner.

When Shanahan first got here, the Leafs were an innovative team that had no problem taking risks. They are now run as one of the most generic and safe teams in the NHL. Since Kyle Dubas left, the Leafs have made it clear the only risk they will take is on a formerly good player's age. Creativity? Innovation? Forget it. Oh well. This is Shanahan's last season unless they win the Cup, so we can't really lose.

C'est la vie.

Assessing the Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup chances ahead of Training Camp

The state of the Leafs as they enter training camp is actually quite good. They may have inept management and a general manager whose afraid to make a trade (and who can blame him, since his last trade turned the Florida Panthers into a powerhouse) but there is a lot of reason for optimism.

For starters, if Joseph Woll is worth the bet, and Chris Tanev stays healthy and does not decline, the Leafs really got a lot better. Samsonov was garbage and Brodie fell off a cliff last year, so if these two guys can step up and meet expectations the Leafs are going to be awesome.

The problem comes from the liklihood of that happening. Jusse Saros was available, and if the Leafs had of made that trade they would be entering this season as Stanley Cup favorites. Pairing Matthews with a top goalie was the most obvious thing the team could have done, but sticking with Woll has just as much upside, only a ton more risk.

Clearly the Leafs weighed the risk of Woll not succeeding against the acquisition cost of Saros and didn't want to make the move, but there's a lot higher of a floor with a top goalie, no matter how unpredictable NHL goalies are. You have to wonder what the cost of Saros would have been and if Treliving would have made the deal had his last major trade not been such an epic disaster.

In conclusion, the Leafs enter the season with Tavares, Rielly, Tanev and OEL looking to avoid further decline and hoping to support the trio of in-their-prime superstars, while getting help from a trio of up-and-coming potential stars in Knies, Robertson and Woll.

This team is a lock for a playoff spot and should be a top team that could even win their division or the Stanley Cup if things go right. But that being said, they are still a team trying to win without a number-one defender or a top goalie on their roster.