A Stretch Run Checklist For the Toronto Maple Leafs
With a little over a month to go in the NHL regular season and less than twenty games, the Toronto Maple Leafs have time to get their house in order before the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The end of the regular season is fast approaching for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the rest of the NHL playoff contenders.
After finishing a busy stretch of four games in six nights with a 3-2 victory over the Montreal Canadiens, the Leafs have less than twenty games left on their schedule.
The Leafs have a better than 99% chance of making the Stanley Cup playoffs, and they are extremely likely to face the Boston Bruins or the Florida Panthers in a first-round matchup.
It is a seemingly foregone conclusion that the Leafs will encounter one of those two Atlantic Division powerhouses to start the postseason. The NHL trade deadline has passed and the roster is more-or-less set, but the Leafs have lots of things to sort out over the remaining month of the schedule.
The Leafs Must Determine Their Best Forward Line Combinations
Recent maneuvering by head coach Sheldon Keefe saw John Tavares bumped down the lineup to center the third line. Max Domi was moved up to the second-line center to play alongside William Nylander and Tyler Bertuzzi.
In his new role, Tavares broke a prolonged slump of scoring a 5 vs 5 even-strength goal. With Bobby McMann and Calle Jarnkrok on the wings, the Leafs have a more dangerous third line.
The problem with the Tavares-Domi shuffle is the potential defensive shortcomings of the newly formed second line. None of Domi, Nylander, and Bertuzzi are known for their defense or are capable of being a defensive conscience for a line.
Matthew Knies has spent the most time on the left wing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner and is likely to remain there.
The remaining schedule must be used to determine the best fourth-line combination and if there is a spot for Nick Robertson in the opening night lineup for the playoffs.
David Kampf, Pontus Holmberg, Ryan Reaves, Noah Gregor and new addition Connor Dewar will be competing for spots on the last forward unit. The most defensively responsible from this group plus those that can solidify the Leafs anemic penalty killing should take priority.
Robertson's energy and offensive potential are hard to ignore, but inconsistency and Keefe's lack of trust in him defensively are keeping him from regular duty.
Determine Defensive Pairs
Thanks to the trade deadline acquisitions of Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson the Leafs improved their depth on defense. The problem is that most of that depth has a third-pair ceiling and wouldn't crack the lineup on a title-contending team.
Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe, T.J. Brodie, Timothy Liljegren, Simon Benoit, Mark Giordano, and Conor Timmins are the other options on the blue line.
Giordano just recently joined Timmins on LTIR. Rielly, McCabe, Liljegren and Brodie are everyday mainstays in the lineup. Barring injuries, that leaves Benoit, Lyubushkin, and Edmundson fighting for the last 2 spots on defense. T
There has been speculation that Liljegren would sit, but that doesn't really make any sense and would be a bad move. Ideally, Liljegren takes one spot for two reasons. First, he is the Leafs only puck-moving defenseman besides Morgan Rielly, and second he is right-handed and therefore he needs to be in the lineup.
Lyubushkin adds a physical element and also has the advantage of being right-handed, helping to better balance the defense pairs. He lessens the need for players to be on their unnatural side.
Benoit has already felt the repercussions of the new additions as he was a healthy scratch against the Canadiens. That was a tough blow for someone who has been a steady presence for most of the season.
The Leafs defense has been a revolving door due to injuries or suspension and Benoit has helped them navigate the adversity.
During the last few weeks of the schedule, the Leafs must decide what defense pairs serve them best. What tandems are winning their shifts at 5 vs 5 play? What players will help invigorate their stagnate penalty-killing?
The Toronto Maple Leafs Must Choose a Number-One Goaltender
The redemptive story of Ilya Samsonov is one of the underrated highlights of the Leafs season.
He started the year as the Leafs number-one netminder, played terribly, lost his job, and was demoted to the Marlies. He cleared waivers. Some wondered if he would play another game in a Leafs uniform or the NHL.
After a mental reprieve with the Toronto Marlies, he regained his starting form. The early-season boo-birds turned to highlight-reel saves that had the Scotiabank crowd chanting his name.
The terrific early-season play of Joseph Woll offset Samsonov's struggles. He wrestled away the starting goaltender job until an unfortunate injury against the Ottawa Senators.
Since returning from the injury Woll's play has been subpar compared to his early-year form. He was out of action for many weeks, so the regression in his play is not surprising.
Over the final month, Woll must be given ample opportunity to regain his pre-injury form. Keefe must ensure that he plays enough to sharpen his game, while also being mindful of his health.
Ideally, both goalies take part in close to an even number of games down the stretch and the competition elevates the play of each of them.
Right now, Samsonov has earned the right to start game one of the playoffs, however, the Leafs started Joseph Woll in both games against Boston last week, which suggest that they prefer him as their starter.
The Leafs Must Hone Their Special Teams Play
The Leafs power play has been near the top of the league rankings for most of the "Core 4" years. This is to be expected with the talent they have in their top unit.
The problem is, at times, it becomes predictable. Past playoff opponents have scouted their tendencies and neutered an important part of the Leafs attack.
This season the Leafs have been less predictable and mostly avoided prolonged power play droughts. This must continue and it wouldn't hurt to add an unexpected wrinkle or two to surprise their future playoff opponent.
Of more pressing concern, is the Leafs play while short-handed.
The Leafs lowly-ranked penalty-killing must improve in hopes of advancing through the playoffs. Preferably, they find a combination of Pontus Holmberg, Connor Dewar, and Calle Jarnkrok to supplement David Kampf and Marner.
Auston Matthews and William Nylander should not be regularly killing penalties. Keep them fresh for their offensive duties and out of harm's way.
The Leafs also need to find a set foursome on defense to help kill penalties. The remaining games on the schedule must be used to find a group that works. McCabe, Brodie, Rielly, Lyubushkin, Benoit, and Edmundson are the six that make the most sense.
Find four from this group that will make the Leafs penalty-killing respectable.
The Leafs Must Fine-Tune Their Structure and Manage Their Roster
The Leafs are likely headed to a third-place finish in the Atlantic Division, so fine-tuning the structure of their game and managing the roster becomes more important during the remaining games on the schedule.
It has already started with the day-to-day injury to Mitch Marner. After an awkward fall against the Bruins last week, he missed the game against the Canadiens and has already been deemed "unlikely" to dress against the Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday.
The Leafs are taking the right approach.
With their comfortable position in the standings, and doubtful of changing their playoff seeding, keeping their best players healthy is paramount. Nagging injuries, such as Marner's, should be given the proper time to heal.
The time-on-ice of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, and Rielly should also be managed. Lessen their workload against weaker opponents or during one-sided games.
In the end, the goal for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and every other playoff team, is to be in peak form for the start of the Stanley Cup playoffs. It's time for the Leafs to devote all of their efforts into making that happen.
They are now well down the list of teams considered to be serious title contenders. The Leafs will be significant underdogs against either the Bruins or the Panthers.
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The preparation starts now to be a dog with some bite.