3 Reasons Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Should Not Be "All In"
The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking like a good bet to make an eighth consecutive appearance in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Despite a roster loaded with star players like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly, this is not the year to go "All In" at the NHL Trade Deadline.
The Toronto Maple Leafs appear to be on their way to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the eighth consecutive time. The Leafs and their Atlantic Division rival, the Boston Bruins, would extend the longest active streaks for making the NHL playoffs should they both get there.
The Toronto Maple Leafs lack of postseason success, along with a core of star players who are mostly in their prime, brings added urgency to usher a title to Toronto. Not to mention a championship drought that you might have heard of.
There is a train of thought that any professional team with a legitimate chance of a title should use all of its resources to help its core of players win while they have the chance.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have multiple All-Stars in their lineup, some of whom are in contention for winning individual awards. Despite a loaded roster with star players like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly, there are multiple reasons why this edition of the Leafs should not be all in at the NHL trade deadline.
Available Players Are Not Worth the Leafs Departing With Their Limited Draft Capital or Top Prospects
A look at the top available players expected to be available at the trade deadline leaves much to be desired. On top of that, the Leafs don't have the future draft assets to throw into any deal.
The Leafs have no second-round picks for the next three years. They don't have a first-round pick in 2025. That leaves their first-round picks in 2024 and 2026 plus a bunch of third to seventh-round picks as trade bait.
Some of the more notable names that are available as the deadline approaches include Noah Hanifin and Jacob Markstrom all of the Calgary Flames. Juse Saros of the Nashville Predators, Marc Andre-Fleury of the Minnesota Wild, Jake Guentzel of the Pittsburgh Penguins, Matt Dumba of the Arizona Coyotes, and Frank Vatrano of the Anaheim Ducks are other significant names on the list.
Chris Tanev was connected to the Leafs until the Flames made a deal with the Dallas Stars. The return for Tanev was a second-round pick, a conditional pick in the third round, plus a prospect. This gives an idea of the potential market value moving forward towards the deadline.
Leafs general manager Brad Treliving's past connections to the Flames make it easy to connect the dots on a possible deal. A closer look at each of these names individually shows that it's not likely to happen.
Lack of Fit Makes a Significant Leafs Trade Unlikely
The cost for Hanifin, Markstrom, and Tanev (before he was traded to the Stars) seems too high for the Leafs to be able to make a deal work for any of them.
Scuttlebutt, before Tanev was moved, was a minimum second-round draft pick, with the Flames holding out hope that someone would give up a first-round pick. The agreement between the Flames and Stars fell somewhere in between. Tanev is older than Hanifin and both are UFAs after the season.
The price for Hanifin will be higher and the Leafs have no second-round picks. Plus, speculation is that Hanifin wants to play for a team based in the U.S. As for Markstrom, he would cost more in a trade package than Hanifin or Tanev because of his position and the two years that remain on his contract.
For those reasons, it's hard to see a Leafs-Flames deal coming to fruition.
Saros would command a similar return (or more) than Markstrom because he is younger. Fleury, in his advancing years, is not an upgrade on what the Leafs already have in the net.
The Leafs don't need to give up assets to supplement their forward lines so that rules out Vatrano. They'd be better suited to helping their defense.
That brings us to Dumba. The Leafs could have signed him as a free agent this past summer. They chose not to. Now, Treliving is going to give up assets to acquire him in a trade? That would be admitting a colossal mistake, so don't count on that happening.
Future Seasons With Controllable Young Talent and a Revamped Blue Line Hold More Promise
The Leafs biggest need is a puck-moving defenseman, one that can play in the top four. The problem is that most of the available defenders are bottom-pairing types. They are not going to move the needle other than balancing the Leafs left-right combinations on the blue line.
None of them are worthy of a first-round pick or a top prospect. Those defensemen available through trade have limitations, are rentals, or both.
With the Leafs commitment to their star players such as Matthews, Nylander, Rielly, and Marner (likely to be extended), young controllable talent becomes more important. Their high percentage of the salary cap must be balanced with the lower salaries of the youngsters.
The Leafs prospect pool of Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson, Easton Cowan, and Fraser Minten needs to be given a chance to develop.
Two of them are already regular contributors playing among the top nine forwards in their early twenties. The play of Minten and Cowan shows that one, or both, may join the parent club as soon as next year. The potential is there to have the Leafs stars augmented by this young talent.
So, what should the Leafs do at the trade deadline?
What Moves Should the Toronto Maple Leafs Make?
The Leafs need to take a cautious approach at the trade deadline. Their best opportunity to strengthen their roster will come during the offseason. Remember, the majority of deadline deals are negligible or disastrous.
T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano, Max Domi, John Klingberg, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Ilya Samsonov will all hit free agency next summer. Treliving and the rest of management can then reset the Leafs roster around the core.
Most of that allotted money can be used to strengthen the Leafs defense. The young prospects can cheaply fill some of the open forward spots, with room to sign a veteran free-agent forward.
For all the attention around trade deadline acquisitions, it's the performance of the Leafs core players that will determine their success in the playoffs.
There are no difference makers available that will significantly increase the Leafs chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Giving up valuable draft picks or their best prospects to go all-in this season would be a ridiculously short-sighted gamble.
The best move for the Toronto Maple Leafs is to keep their first-round picks, reset the defense during the offseason, and keep their young forwards.
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That long-term thinking will make the Leafs even stronger Cup contenders as their stars go through their prime years. Foolishly dismissing future assets on this year's roster is not the way to go.