3 Players The Toronto Maple Leafs Should Avoid In Free Agency
Last month I graded Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving's performance throughout his first year. For the Free Agency grade, I gave him a C. This is largely because his two biggest signings in terms of caphit were relatively poor and even a few of the lower AAV deals he handed out did not work out too well.
This year, Treliving will need to perform better in this category specifically, if the Toronto Maple Leafs want to get past the first round again.
Luckily, he will have another $18.5 million to spend this off-season (Capfriendly,com) to re-sign players and to hopefully improve the team.
Treliving has another chance and hopefully he does a lot better. The Leafs wasted a lot of money last year signing Ryan Reaves, John Klingberg and David Kampf.
There are quite a few names that are floating around that the Leafs are potentially interested in that are worrisome.
So, I decided to compile a list of three players that I feel the Leafs should avoid in free agency. Hopefully, Treliving learned from his mistakes and will perform better this time around.
His performance in Calgary does not generate too much optimism from me but we can always hope. For the purposes of this article, I will be using AFPAnalytics contract projections.
Dakota Joshua
Projection: Four years, $3.25 million AAV
There are countless examples of cautionary tales available when it comes to signing players who have “break-out years” heading towards free agency in their late 20’s. Canucks forward Dakota Joshua may be the next major example.
Joshua, a former fifth round pick by the Leafs in 2014, had a decent but unremarkable career at Ohio State University after being drafted.
This lead to him being traded for future considerations to the St. Louis Blues in the summer of 2019. After spending the following three seasons bouncing from the ECHL to AHL, to NHL tweener, with the Blues he signed as a free agent and has spent the past two seasons playing in a bottom-six role for the Canucks.
He amassed 23 points in 79 games in 2022-23 and then this past season reached 32 in 63 games playing on a fantastic line with Teddy Blueger and Conor Garland.
He followed this up with eight points in 13 playoff games. In that role he played a more bang and crash, netfront game that saw him clean up rebounds and score greasy goals.
This is exactly what Leafs GM Brad Treliving has said he wants and this could cause Joshua to come full-circle and rejoin the Leafs.
However, the team should proceed with caution. As mentioned above, when these types of players hit free agency, they have a tendency to be overvalued and their contracts do not typically age well. A few recent examples include: Troy Brouwer, Brandon Tanev, Brock McGinn, and Barclay Goodrow. If Dakota Joshua makes this list in a few seasons time, let's cross our fingers that it is not because of a Leafs deal.
The Leafs should also be concerned that Joshua's shooting-percentage was sky-high last year and completely unsustainable. He shot 21%, which is higher than Auston Matthews has ever finished a season with.
Is Dakota Joshua a better shooter than Auston Matthews or did he just have a really lucky season? Whover signs him should be confident they know the answer to this question.
Elias Lindholm
Projection: Five years, $6.765 million AAV
At one point, Lindholm was centering one of the best lines in the game between Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau.
Since then, both his wingers have left and he was traded to the Vancouver Canucks. There, he struggled to fit in and was even rumoured as a possible trade candidate heading into the deadline for a second time. This highlights a few concerns involving Lindholm.
One was the glaring drop in production, specifically in goals when his elite line mates left.
This points to the possibility that he was either more of a product of their play or the line as a whole was greater than the sum of it’s parts. Neither would be good and investing that much money in him could be too great of a risk.
To play devil’s advocate, the Leafs have the unique ability to put him in a position to succeed with their core. They could load him up a line with William Nylander and John Tavares. Or, they could always shelter him on the third line behind their core and deploy him in advantageous situations.
There is some utility in that but paying him the money he could command to play that role, does not make sense. The money would be better spent on almost anyone else.
Lindholm is 29 and his production has dropped three seasons in a row.
Chris Tanev
Projection: Three year $4.466 million
The Leafs were reportedly interested in Chris Tanev during the season but were unable to meet the demands that the Calgary Flames were asking in a trade. It is undeniable that he would have been a better addition than Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson alas, it did not happen.
The acquisition of Tanev as a deadline addition would have been welcomed but signing him to a multi-year deal worth a not insignificant chunk of cap? Not so much. He will be 35 only two months into next season and with a long and extensive history of injuries, it is a contract that might not age well, fast.
Over the past few seasons we saw what aging and injuries can do to a player and how quickly they can decline. This has bit the Leafs with Muzzin, Giordano, Klingberg, and Brodie all suffering quick declines with little to no notice. If this were to happen again with Tanev, it could severely hurt the Leafs so in my opinion, it is best to steer clear.
However, if Brad Treliving and Co. do opt to sign Tanev and in a best case scenario, we would be looking at an incredibly effective shutdown defender who could drastically improve the top-four the moment he steps onto the ice. But, sometimes the risks are not worth the cost and so the Leafs will have to be very cautious when looking at locking up Tanev.
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The Leafs will need to make sure that they spend their money wisely this off-season. They cannot have a free agency like last season that was largely a mixed bag. This will become especially true if they lose out on superstar Mitch Marner.