With the NHL playoffs in sight, it's time for coaches to start thinking about who will suit up for their teams and who will watch from the press box for Game 1. This process is no different for Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube. Berube's line combinations have flustered all season long, which brings some uncertainty for who we should expect to see playing with each other when the playoffs officially start this week, at least for the bottom six.
Although Berube does like to shuffle his lines, it's fair to say that the top line of Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and Matthew Knies won't be going anywhere, as they've been one of the more productive lines in the league all season long. John Tavares and William Nylander look to stay together, but their left-winger remains to be seen, as predominantly Max Pacioretty, Bobby McMann, and even Pontus Holmberg get some time on the second line.
Those combinations of the top line and the second line of Tavares, Nylander, and their counterpart haven't been the question mark surrounding this team ever since the season started. It's been their ability to get contributions from their bottom six.
A player who could help in that department is Nick Robertson
Robertson currently ranks second last in forward ice time this season, according to MoneyPuck.com. Yet somehow, Robertson ranks sixth on this Maple Leafs roster in five-on-five goals with 12, only behind Matthews, Marner, Knies, Nylander, Tavares, and McMann, all of whom get significantly more ice time. The player with the most five-on-five goals this season behind Robertson is Domi, with eight, which, for context, is the same amount goals Scott Laughton has.
Even after being on a line with the fourth-best expected goals with McMann and Domi, Robertson still hasn't been given a chance to be a mainstay in Berube's lineup.
All season long, we have seen Berube elect for the low-risk type of players such as Pontus Holmberg and Steven Lorentz instead of Robertson. Throughout this season, we have seen Robertson align his playstyle to Berube's system, which is getting pucks in deep and tight-checking; Roberton's 78 hits on the season are good enough for fourth on the team, showing him buy into Berube's system to hopefully get a spot in Game 1.
The recipe to rely heavily on top players to produce in the playoffs hasn't panned out well for this group. In last year's playoffs, Matthews, Domi, and Tyler Bertuzzi each finished with four points, which was the most on the team. Toronto had a 46.93% expected goals rate in last year's playoffs, which is why Robertson and his scoring ability should be given a chance.
In the last three seasons, each cup winner has finished the playoffs with an expected goals rate in the top five, which is why Berube should elect to have Robertson in the lineup for game one instead of in the press box. If history were to repeat itself for the fourth straight time in the Leafs' favor, Robertson offers the ability to make that happen.