When Mitch Marner went to the Vegas Golden Knights this offseason, many expected a hit to the Toronto Maple Leafs' depth, but oddsmakers are signaling something even deeper.
A look at current NHL award and Stanley Cup odds reveals that sportsbooks see Marner as just as vital to Toronto's past success as Auston Matthews, if not more.
With Vegas now carrying stronger Cup odds than the Leafs, and Marner getting equal or better odds in some major award categories, the betting markets are quietly suggesting one thing: the Maple Leafs may be heading for a step back without him.
Matthews, coming off a subpar, career-low thirty-goal season, should be further motivated for a bounce back, thanks to DraftKings' futures for the upcoming 2025-2026 NHL season.
Betting Site Doesn't Like Leafs' Cup Chances Without Marner
Despite the Maple Leafs providing the stiffest competition for the Florida Panthers on their way to a second consecutive title, losing in seven games during the second round, most sportsbooks don't see Toronto as a top contender.
DraftKings shows the Leafs with the ninth-best odds (+2000) for next year's Stanley Cup. The Panthers (+600), Carolina Hurricanes (+800), Golden Knights (+850), Edmonton Oilers (+900), Colorado Avalanche (+900), Dallas Stars (+1000), Tampa Bay Lightning (+1300), and New Jersey Devils (+1600) are all ranked more favorably.
Covers.com (+2000, 8th), Sports Interaction (+1900, 8th), bet365 (+1800, t-8th), and Pinnacle (+1985, 9th) all have similar championship chances for the Maple Leafs.
The green, unproven Devils are receiving more respect than the Leafs, along with their Atlantic Division rival, the Lightning, a team Toronto has handled in recent seasons. Carolina, with similar postseason struggles to the Leafs, is getting more acclaim.
DraftKings also posted odds for a Hart Trophy-Stanley Cup parlay. Matthews and the Leafs are tied for sixth-best with Kirill Kaprizov and the Minnesota Wild (+30000). Connor McDavid and the Oilers (+2800) have the best chance to pull off the parlay, according to the betting site.
Of interest to the Leafs and their fans, Jack Eichel and the Golden Knights have better odds (+25000, 5th) than the Matthews-Toronto double. A Marner-Golden Knights combination (+35000) is ranked just behind (t-8th) Matthews and the Maple Leafs.
Nikita Kucherov and the Lightning (+12000, 4th) are well ahead of the Matthews-Leafs parlay. The second-best odds that include Toronto are William Nylander-Leafs at +100000, tied for 16th.
A Slight Lean to Matthews over Marner for NHL Award
Marner and new teammate Eichel both have better odds of securing the Art Ross Trophy for the league's top scorer. Each is listed at +4000, tied for 7th, ahead of Matthews, +7500, tied for 11th.
Matthews has a better chance at the Hart Trophy for league MVP than Marner. The Leafs' captain is listed at +1800, the seventh-best choice on the board. Marner is at +4000, tied for tenth with Cale Makar of the Avalanche. Eichel comes in at +2500, tied for eighth with Jack Hughes of the Devils.
Matthews and Marner share the same odds of capturing the Selke Trophy as the league's best defensive forward. They have the sixth-best chances at +2000 behind Alexander Barkov (-105), Sam Reinhart (+600), Nico Hischier (+800), Anthony Cirelli (+1000), and Eichel (+1500).
Three-time Rocket Richard winner Matthews has the second-best chances to win his fourth. Leon Draisaitl of the Oilers (+320) is the only player listed ahead of Matthews (+400). Marner, the playmaker, is in a large group of longshots (+50000).
Matthews and Marner should both garner serious consideration for the Lady Byng Trophy for most sportsmanlike player. In the view of DraftKings, Marner has a slightly better chance of winning. He has the eighth-best odds (+2000), just ahead of Matthews at +2500, tied for ninth-best. Eichel is tied for the second choice on the board at +700 with Nick Suzuki of the Montreal Canadiens, while no other Maple Leafs are listed.
While the numbers may feel like a slight to Matthews and the Maple Leafs, the oddsmakers aren't just reacting to Marner's departure; they're accounting for a perfect storm of challenges.
Toronto still faces the gauntlet of the Atlantic Division with the two-time defending champion Panthers, Lightning, and the ever-improving Canadiens and Ottawa Senators. Losing a dynamic two-way player like Marner to a deep, proven team like Vegas only adds to the skepticism. Add in the Leafs' well-documented playoff struggles, and it's clear why sportsbooks are tempering expectations for both a Matthews awards run and a deep Cup push.
Whether that's fair or not, the message is clear: if the Maple Leafs want respect, they'll have to earn it, without one of their most important pieces.