It was never going to be easy for the Toronto Maple Leafs to extend Auston Matthews. Even though he has two years left on his current contract, the prospect of keeping the team captain will get noticeably harder.
Things stand to take a drastic turn on September 16.
On that date, the NHL and NHLPA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) will come into effect. With it, numerous changes will affect player contracts. The biggest change will be the shift from max-term eight-year deals to seven, and that's only for players re-signing with their current teams. That won’t be the case for the Maple Leafs here.
The most substantial change will happen insofar as contract structures are concerned. And that’s where Auston Matthews falls into the picture.
When the Leafs signed Matthews to his current five-year, $53 million contract, the deal wasn’t structured like most contracts. Even though Matthews has a $13.25 million cap hit, he’s actually paid $775K in real money every season. The rest of his contract is paid in signing bonuses.
That’s what’s going to change in the next CBA. As a recent article in RG Media noted, the Leafs won’t be able to get away with paying Matthews 93.7% of his next contract in signing bonuses. If anything, the new provisions will cap that total at 60%.
That situation could make it particularly challenging for the Maple Leafs to keep Auston Matthews, as his tax bill could spike significantly in his next deal.
Maple Leafs will need to get creative with Auston Matthews’ next deal
Since the Maple Leafs won’t be able to jack up Auston Matthews’ next contract with nearly 95% in signing bonuses, the two sides will have to get creative to minimize the star’s deal to keep his tax bill down.
Otherwise, the Maple Leafs will just have to pay more on paper to ensure Matthews gets the number he wants. An anonymous source told RG that Matthews might have to settle for getting paid less than he expected on his next deal.
“They’re going to have to get real creative in Toronto, unless Auston decides to take less on his own.”
If Matthews isn’t willing to take less, the Leafs might have to max out their captain’s next deal just to make it worth his while.
“Does this force the Leafs to offer him a max contract at $22.6M per year next summer to give him his market value and make up for the drop in signing bonuses? That’s going to be a fun one to watch.”
The watch will officially commence on July 1, 2027, when Matthews is officially able to sign an extension.
If the Maple Leafs are smart, they’ll push to extend Matthews then. It’s worth noting that the max cap hit for a single player is 20% of the total cap allocation. Signing Matthews on July 1, 2027, when the cap ceiling is $113.5 million, means a $22.6 million cap hit. If the new Auston Matthews contract negotiation goes into 2028, the Leafs could be looking at a cap hit of $24.6 million.
Of course, if the Leafs win a Stanley Cup in the next two seasons, no one will really pay much attention to the math. Matthews will have delivered and could pretty much command whatever he wants.
Add us as a preferred source on Google