Berube Has Altered Leafs Style
Coaching: Craig Berube's style has benefited the Leafs. They have become a team that pays attention to the small details and makes the right play to win close hockey games.
The team's emphasis on protecting the high-danger scoring areas and their strong goaltending has made the Maple Leafs very comfortable in close games. They had a league-best .733 win percentage in one-goal games this season. The Leafs also had a fourth-best .946 win percentage when leading after two periods.
Former Leaf and Ottawa coach Travis Green deserves credit for leading the Senators to the playoffs in his first season behind the bench. He convinced his young team of the importance of two-way play and they responded.
The 2024-25 season was only the second of Green's coaching career in which his team made the playoffs or had a points percentage over .500. These playoffs will be the sixth of Berube's career. He also has won a Stanley Cup ring.
Edge: Maple Leafs
How Will the Leafs Handle the Burden From Past Playoffs?
Intangibles: The Leafs tied for the league's eighth-best power play during the regular season at 24.8%. Their penalty killing ranked 17th at 77.9%. The Senators' power play ranked 11th at 23.8%, while their penalty killing was 19th at 77.7%.
The young Senators will be buoyed from the excitement of returning to the playoffs after missing them for the past seven years. The Maple Leafs have to forget the horrors from their recent postseasons.
How many Leafs fans will be able to invade enemy territory at the Canadian Tire Centre and lessen home-ice advantage for the Sens? Will the Senators be able to steal an early win and increase the pressure on Toronto? How will the Leafs handle adversity?
Edge: Senators
X-Factors
Rather than the obvious players such as Matthews, Nylander, Marner, or Tkachuk, what other players might turn the tide for their team?
Matthew Knies has blossomed in his second full season with the Maple Leafs. The 29-goal scorer was one of only three players in the exclusive club of reaching 25 goals and over 150 hits. (Tkachuk and Tom Wilson of the Washington Capitals were the others.)
The Senators made a bold move at the trade deadline by shaking up their young core, dealing away Josh Norris and acquiring Dylan Cozens. Cozens scored 16 points in 21 games, but more importantly, the Sens took off after the move, securing the first wild card in the Eastern Conference.
Prediction: Maple Leafs in 6