The Toronto Maple Leafs’ sudden turnaround has been a type of mini-miracle. Many pundits were poking the club with a stick to see if it would still move. But the Leafs did a lot more than that.
Their 4-1-0 road trip was enough to bolt the team out of the Atlantic Division cellar and into the fringes of the playoff race. While Saturday night’s loss to the Habs was disappointing, the Leafs picked up a point.
The Maple Leafs are now just four points behind the Boston Bruins and the Tampa Bay Lightning for first place in the Atlantic, with some separation finally emerging among teams.
So, what changed? What was it that the Maple Leafs did that created this seemingly magical turnaround?
It wasn’t scoring. The Leafs have scored all season long. Yes, the depth has picked things up. Most notably, Scott Laughton has lit the world on fire in the last couple of games. The third line has been humming along lately, and Max Domi finally looks comfortable.
So, what is it?
According to The Athletic’s James Mirtle, the key factor in the turnaround isn’t quite so obvious.
Maple Leafs getting much better goaltending
Yes, the most evident factor has been goaltending. Joseph Woll’s return to the ice could not have come at a better time. His numbers this season have been fantastic. Woll’s 2.44 GAA and .928 SV% have been what the Maple Leafs have needed all season long.
In contrast, Anthony Stolarz’s struggles earlier this season could signal that he could have been playing hurt all season. That situation has become increasingly clear as there is no timeline for his return.
As for Dennis Hildeby, he’s been good for the Maple Leafs this season. He’s put up similar numbers to Woll’s, posting a 2.51 GAA and .927 SV%. In short, Hildeby and Woll have kept the Maple Leafs in games the entire season.
While goaltending is the most blatant improvement, there’s something else driving the Maple Leafs' success.
Toronto limiting quality chances against
As Mirtle noted, the biggest change has been the Maple Leafs’ ability to limit quality scoring chances against. Beyond the one bad game against the Washington Capitals, the Leafs have played a much better defensive game overall.
Mirtle made the following comment on the Maple Leafs’ defensive turnaround:
“Overall, however, we can see some positive trends beyond just great goaltending from Woll and Hildeby. Over the past five games, the Leafs are up to 10th in the NHL in high-danger chances against per minute in all situations.”
The comment highlights how the Maple Leafs have done a better job of keeping teams honest. Opponents have found it increasingly difficult to score against Toronto. Mirtle added the following reflection:
“That newfound defensive stinginess is really apparent on the penalty kill, too, as they're top five in most metrics like expected goals, scoring chances and high-danger chances faced when down a man. The addition of Scott Laughton (back from injury) and Troy Stecher (claimed off waivers from Edmonton) has been huge in this department, as they currently have the best underlying numbers on the Toronto PK so far this season.”
Indeed, Laughton’s return has been crucial. Laughton’s game-tying goal on Saturday night was of the shorthanded variety. As for Stecher, despite a couple of hiccups here and there, he’s been excellent. He’s done a great deal to mitigate the absence of Brandon Carlo. In fact, Stecher could have made Carlo expendable.
There’s something else worth adding. The Maple Leafs forwards have behaved like responsible adults over this last stretch. They have avoided silly plays, basically keeping things simple. That’s been a major difference, leading to tangible results on the ice.
The Leafs will have a major test on Monday night. They’ll face the division-leading Lightning. A win would close the gap between the two teams to just two points. So, there’s plenty of motivation to beat the reeling Bolts.