With every passing day, it feels more likely that the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to re-sign John Tavares, which would be a tone-deaf move by the organization.
It's been almost two weeks since the Toronto Maple Leafs were eliminated in Game 7 of the second round, so we've all had enough time to breathe and evaluate the 2024-25 season. The team won the Atlantic Division, which is a big accomplishment, but they didn't take advantage of home-ice, ultimately losing in the second round.
It's one thing to lose in the playoffs, but it's another way to lose in the fashion that they did. Game 5 and Game 7 of the second round continue to come up into conversation about how the fanbase lost hope in this team, but why doesn't Game 5 against Ottawa get the same criticism?
After going up 3-0 against Ottawa, the Leafs lost in overtime against Ottawa in Game 4 and gave themselves a great opportuntiy to end the series at home. However, they played one of the most lifeless games of their season, losing 4-0 at home. That same sort of thing happened during Game 5 and Game 7 at home, as the team lost 6-1 in both occasions, finishing their season in a terrible fashion.
The Leafs took advantage of home-ice finishing with a 4-0 record during Game 1 and 2 of both rounds, but in the most critical games (two Game 5's and one Game 7), the Leafs lost at home. If the Ottawa series would have came back home in the first round, I feel like this team would have folded and their season would have finished in an even worse way, but fortunately they won Game 6 on the road.
The idea that every player who plays for this organization can't handle the pressure of Toronto is false in my opinion, but I do believe that the core-four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander can't, which is why they need a change.
Tavares will go down as one of the best forwards in Leafs history and his decision to sign here will always be remembered fondly. However, after seven years, the team failed and they never reached their ultimate goal. He scored one of the biggest overtime goals in recent memory sending the Leafs to second round in 2023, but they still fell 11 wins short of a Stanley Cup, so can we really value that performance so highly?
Leafs cannot re-sign John Tavares, no matter how cheap he is
If you looked at Tavares' statistics alone and saw the player that he is, re-signing him to a three-year deal worth around $5-6M AAV would be a steal. It would be arguably one of the best value contracts in the sport, but you can't look at it in this situation. As much as Tavares is a good player, the combination of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares just doesn't work.
Maybe if Marner leaves and it's just Tavares, Matthews and Nylander that it will work, but I still can't be sure of that right now. In 51 career playoff games in Toronto, Tavares has 31 points, which is essentially a 50-point season. That's not very good for a player who was making $11M AAV and has avearged close to a point-per-game during the regular season. Tavares turns 35 years old in September and is entering his 17th career season, so why are we supposed to think his game will get better than what we've seen?
The Toronto Maple Leafs don't fold in the playoffs because they have a Maple Leaf on their chest, but they fall apart because of the players who play on this team, which is why they need a change. When they blew a 4-1 lead against the Boston Bruins in 2013, it wasn't because they wore blue-and-white, but it was because their roster looked like this. As a result, they knew they had to blow up the roster, rebuild and get better, which is exactly what they did.
Regular season success has no correlation to a Stanley Cup. Even without Tavares and Marner, I can promise you that this team will be good enough to make the playoffs, so they need to sign someone else who may look worse on paper, but can elevate in the biggest moments.
Unfortunately Tavares has proved that he can do that, so re-signing him would be a huge mistake for this organization and something that is incredibly tone-deaf.