If there was ever a time for the Toronto Maple Leafs to rebuild, it was this summer. The team had seemingly hit rock bottom. Plus, the remarkable twist of fate that led to Gavin McKenna having the organization as the cornerstone to rebuild around.
But with Auston Matthews still under contract, that wasn’t something ownership would allow. So, John Chayka hacked through the thicket of the Shanaplan's remnants. That situation has yielded this iteration, one that could return to the postseason and make a run.
While optimism reigns, the timeline for a rebuild is hiding in plain sight. The Maple Leafs have two years to make significant headway. Another one-and-done playoff run won’t be enough. It might be enough to keep the mob at bay the first year, but the second year, a first-round exit or a playoff miss could lead to the Leafs tearing everything down.
Looking at the Maple Leafs salary cap structure, this team is essentially under contract for two seasons. Next summer, Toronto does not project any UFAs or RFAs. That, and the rising cap, will allow Chayka to take a big swing.
But if nothing else changes, the summer of 2028 could be the time when Chayka finally breaks everything apart and resets the clock for the Maple Leafs.
Two years. That’s the amount of time left on Matthews’ contract. That is assuming he even makes it that far.
If the Leafs are truly circling the drain at that point, Matthews could be gone next summer. Maybe the team holds on to him until the 2028 NHL trade deadline. By then, it would be evident if there’s any real chance of the team keeping him.
Otherwise, Chayka may have to pull off the biggest trade in team history.
Maple Leafs rebuild hinges on Matthews staying
The entire discussion of a Maple Leafs rebuild hinges on Matthews staying. Even if the team goes to ca-ca, but Matthews somehow wants to stay, the idea of a full-on rebuild will have to wait.
The Leafs would still have a solid core, though the entire blue line might require an overhaul by then. That has to be something that Chayka is preparing for, one way or another. Even if the Leafs win a Stanley Cup in the next two seasons, the defense corps will need a major change in two seasons.
If it becomes clear that Matthews is ready to move on, the Maple Leafs will want to know as soon as possible. That situation should become apparent by this time next season. Unless the Maple Leafs somehow completely blow up next season, the organization will have clarity on Matthews’ desire to stay next summer.
Perhaps everyone already knows. Maybe they’re just biding their time. But the reality is that the clock is ticking.
Maybe there’s a future in which the Maple Leafs don’t have Matthews in the fold, and they can still sidestep a massive rebuild.
That’s a discussion for another day.
In the meantime, it’s clear that the current timeline is set for two years. After that, it seems all bets are off.
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