Maple Leafs' projected lineup shows questionable choices

NHL.com published a Toronto Maple Leafs new-look projected lineup for the 2025-26 season. The lineup looks quite different from the one fans grew accustomed to seeing for the last half-decade or so.

While the bulk of the choices make sense, some decisions are questionable at best. So, let’s dig in and take a look.

Here’s what NHL.com estimates could be the Maple Leafs' Opening Night lineup:

Let’s start with the forward group. Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies together are a no-brainer. However, placing Max Domi on the top unit is questionable to say the least. Domi has played with Matthews before but hasn’t quite shown he’s capable of delivering the type of support the Leafs’ captain needs.

Perhaps now that Mitch Marner is no longer on the top unit, Domi can play a more prominent role in retrieving pucks so that Matthews and Knies can leverage their goal-scoring skills.

Now, I will say one thing in favor of Domi. A couple of seasons ago, Domi played with Matthews and Tyler Bertuzzi for a handful of games. The line actually looked good at the time. So, there’s a chance Domi might click on the top line.

The second unit looks good. Tavares and Nylander play well together. Adding Matias Maccelli could help solidify that line in a way that we haven’t really seen before. Bobby McMann wasn’t able to make that line work. He could be a puck hound that Nylander needs to get him even more scoring opportunities. Perhaps 100 points might not be out of the question for Nylander this season.

The bottom six looks solid. The third line, consisting of Bobby McMann, Nicolas Roy, and Dakota Joshua, looks like the real deal. However, I would like to see Nick Robertson on this line in place of McMann. Robertson deserves a look and could finally find a situation in which he can succeed.

The fourth line, if healthy, could be one of the best in the Eastern Conference. Scott Laughton, Steven Lorentz, and Calle Jarnkrok should get a lot more ice time than the average fourth line. That bodes well for the top-six guys as they’ll need to get as many breaks as possible.

However, I wonder about Michael Pezzetta. It looks like he won’t have much of a role. Perhaps he jumps into the lineup if and when Jarnkrok is traded.

On the subject of trades, David Kampf seems like the odd man out. At $2.4 million for the next two seasons, Kampf is way too expensive to be a 13th forward. Maybe the Maple Leafs put him on waivers, hoping someone desperate enough claims him.

That might be wishful thinking. But it could be a possibility if the Leafs can’t find a trading partner for Kampf.

Overall, the Maple Leafs' forward group looks much different from what it did last season. It’s a tougher, more rugged group that continues to be top-heavy. Fans shouldn’t expect much depth scoring. But the solid bottom six could buy the stars just enough time as they wear down opposing defenses.

No surprises with projected Maple Leafs blue line

As for the Maple Leafs’ blue line, NHL.com’s projected lineup does not show any surprises.

The top pairing of Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo makes absolute sense. Carlo is the type of partner Rielly needs to truly shine. Perhaps we see Rielly get back to the 70-point mark and the fringe of the Norris Trophy conversation. He’ll have to beat Cale Makar’s 90+ points, but he may have an outside shot.

The shutdown pair of Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev looks great as long as they can stay healthy. As it stands, this defense pair is held together with duct tape. So, let’s hope that duct tape holds for one more season and playoffs.

The bottom pair shows Simon Benoit and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Again, this pairing depends on health. Newly acquired Henry Thrun should get some reps in on the bottom pair. I don’t foresee Benoit playing all 82 games. And, when injuries strike, Thrun should get into the mix.

Keep an eye on Phillippe Myers and Dakota Mermis. Both should get a long look at training camp and could be in the mix for the eighth defenseman role. Otherwise, they’ll be on the “first man up” list.

The goalie tandem of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll looks good. However, I’m losing a bit of sleep at night wondering who the third-string goalie would be. The Maple Leafs still have another month’s worth of summer sunshine to find a reliable third-string goalie. Finding a solid third-string netminder should be atop of Brad Treliving’s remaining items this offseason.

All in all, the Leafs’ DNA change seems to be taking hold. The lineup seems a lot more akin to the Florida Panthers and the Carolina Hurricanes. My biggest concern, however, is depth. Once injuries hit, will the depth behind the starting lineup be enough to hold the team together?

We’ll have several months to see if this Maple Leafs iteration finally gets to the promised land.