The Athletic Maple Leafs Power Ranking: 6th
The Athletic ranked the Maple Leafs sixth-place, just as Sportsnet did. However, this was the first source I found that did not mention the Leafs goaltenders. But much like the Sportsnets article, New York Times writers Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille detailed what should be on each team's Christmas wishlist.
In regards to the Maple Leafs, they write that getting "Auston Matthews’ swagger back" should be at the top of their wish list, stating", Matthews has been good, but he’s been nowhere close to his usual self — an MVP-caliber superstar who can score at will. Some of that is injury troubles to start the year, and in time, he may find his game. When he does, the Leafs have a chance to really take off".
While it is undeniable that Matthews is not scoring goals anywhere close to the rate he did last season, we must temper expectations here. Last season, Matthews scored 69 goals but only had 44.73 expected goals. This season, Matthews has flipped that, having 11.51 expected goals to only nine goals scored.
By no means was Matthews record-setting campaign a fluke, but he did score way more goals than expected and had a career-high shooting percentage at 18.7%, so it isn't unreasonable to expect some regression this season. As it sits, Matthews would be on pace to score 36.9 goals if he were to have played all 82 games. This would be the lowest-scoring season of his career, which is not shocking considering he is also on pace to have his career-worst shooting percentage by more than two percent.
These stats may concern some, but if you dive a little deeper, you will find that Matthews is playing just as good of hockey as he ever has; the results aren't there to show for it. These stats may be concerning to some, but if you dive a little deeper you will find that Matthews is playing just as good of hockey as he ever has, the results just aren't there to show for it.
When talking on a per 60-minute basis, Matthews ranks fourth in expected goals, sixth in shots on goal, second in scoring chances and 12th in high-danger chances among all NHL players to take the ice this season. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
Despite not finding the net at the same rate we are used to, Matthews is still producing scoring chances at an elite rate. If this weren't the case, I would be concerned, but it is only a matter of time before Matthews starts piling up the points with how many chances he is producing.