It was announced a few days ago that Toronto Maple Leafs forward and restricted free agent (RFA) Nick Robertson had filed for player elected salary arbitration. He was one of eleven players to pursue this, including some notable names like; Kaapo Kakko, Lukas Dostal, and Gabe Vilardi.
Since Robertson pursued salary arbitration himself and not the Maple Leafs, he is now unable to sign an offer sheet but the two sides can still negotiate with each other until his hearing. This is just another wrinkle in what can be described as rocky at best.
Although he was able to avoid injury unlike previous season, Robertson failed to secure the confidence of new head coach Craig Berube, being healthy scratched for 13 regular season games and 10 playoff games. He also saw his numbers drop this year from 14 goals and 27 points in 56 games in 2023-24 to 15 goals and 22 points in 69 games. He really struggled this year and represents a drop in every statistic on a per-game basis with an overall dip from 0.48 points-per-game to 0.32.
Last summer, there was a very public trade request made by his camp as well which adds even more stress to a strained relationship. It's hard to repair things anyways but given the Leafs new style under the new regime not mixing well with the young forward, it is difficult to imagine how things can progress from here and keep Robertson in the blue and white. So, what should Brad Treliving and the Toronto Maple Leafs do with the free agent forward?
Should he stay or should he go?
The argument to keep him is very clear, he’s a young player who has shown real flashes of offensive brilliance. He is only 24 years old and has hovered around a 20 goal pace for back-to-back seasons. He also scored at a near half-point-per game pace in 23-24 which could be valuable for a team that just lost a 100-point winger less than two weeks ago.
On top of the value he can bring on the ice, trading Robertson now would be close to trading him at his lowest value. Like I mentioned before, he was a healthy scratch for over 20 games between the regular season and playoffs. He will be 24 years old by the time training camp rolls around and has yet to secure a permanent spot in the NHL lineup. 15 goal scorer or not, no team will pay a premium to take that on despite the offensive potential.
However, if the team can sign him for another year or two and he can play a regular role and score say… 20 goals and 40 points over a full season, a team may be willing to pay a decent price. Of course, no team with playoff let alone Stanley Cup aspirations like the Leafs should be dressing a player in their every day lineup for a pump-and-dump but with Robertson, there may be real value for the club there.
The argument against keeping Robertson is equally reasonable to me. Yes, he is a young player who has shown offensive potential but he has also shown that he is not trusted by your coach and does not seem well suited to play a true bottom-six grinding type role. This alone is reason enough.
The team added Nicholas Roy in the Mitch Marner sign-and-trade which helps to solidify their bottom-six, giving them a proven winner and a player who can play up the middle. They also added Matias Maccelli to play on the wing, likely in their top-six. Although this does not necessarily push Robertson out of the equation, it shows the team is definitely not gifting him a guaranteed spot in the lineup.
Two NHL coaches now have been unwilling to give him a long leash and have not trusted him in tough deployments. AFP Analytics estimates his contract to be roughly two years with a $1.5 million AAV, this is not the kind of money the Leafs can afford to let sit on their books making little to know impact. The club needs to make every cap dollar count.
If the team feels he does not fit into their lineup, the team should cut bait now and just get whatever asset they can for him. As much as asset management is important and trading him at this point is a bad idea for maximizing his trade value, it may be the best option. Keeping a player around and bringing him in and out of the lineup, when your coach does not trust him is poor asset management in and of itself. This will tank his value even further and possibly severely harm his NHL aspirations moving forward.
The best case scenario for both parties is for Nick Robertson to play NHL games in a role suited for his skills, whether that is with the Maple Leafs or not must be decided by Treliving and his front office, hopefully sooner rather than later.