The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit a new chapter in the Nick Robertson saga on Saturday when the 23-year-old winger filed for arbitration.
The Leafs extended Robertson a qualifying offer (QO) this offseason, keeping him on the club as an RFA. The $919K QO. The QO was more of a formality, as failing to issue one would have automatically made Robertson a UFA.
The fact that Robertson filed for arbitration means that he’s looking to settle his next contract before it becomes an issue like it did last summer. As you may recall, Robertson wanted a hefty pay raise, while the Leafs were unwilling to budge. The saga drew out during the summer, eventually coming to a head with Robertson threatening to hold out.
None of the parties made good on their threats, and Nick Robertson re-signed, inking a one-year deal worth $875K.
Robertson was promised a more prominent role under Craig Berube. Berube kept his word, giving Robertson a shot to make an impact on the team. In 69 games, Robertson scored 15 goals and totalled 22 points.
However, Robertson saw his playing dwindle as the season went on. He was eventually kept out of the lineup in the playoffs in favor of more veteran performers like Max Pacioretty.
It’s worth pointing out that heading to arbitration is not necessarily a bad thing. What it means is that an independent third party will determine what Robertson’s next deal should be.
What arbitration means for Robertson, Maple Leafs
Heading to arbitration is not the most desirable situation in the NHL. Arbitration can manifest unsavory feelings. The player, on the one hand, must argue why he thinks he’s worth a certain amount of money. The club, on the other hand, must make its case as to why the player isn’t worth that amount.
That situation can lead to bad blood between sides. In the Leafs and Robertson’s case, arbitration could very well lead down that path. Robertson believes he’s worth more than an $875K deal. But the club hasn’t seen what it has hoped for from Robertson.
In his defense, Robertson has been consistent. He scored 14 goals in 2023-24 and 15 in 2024-25, despite limited playing time. So, it’s safe to assume he could top 20 goals if given a regular lineup spot.
Considering Mitch Marner has left a hole in the Maple Leafs’ lineup, Robertson could jump up the depth chart. Now, I’m not suggesting Robertson could replace Marner, but Marner’s departure opens up more spots in the lineup.
Arbitration not necessarily binding
It’s worth pointing out that arbitration is not necessarily binding for the player and the team. When a player initiates arbitration, like Robertson did, the arbitrator’s decision is binding, meaning the two sides must agree on the salary value.
If the club does not agree with the decision, it can pass on the decision. However, declining to heed the arbitrator’s decision means the player instantly becomes a UFA.
The Maple Leafs don’t want to make Robertson a UFA. The team needs talented wingers to soak up roster spots as the Leafs will be looking to replace Marner’s 100-point season by committee. It won’t be one player who’ll take over. It’ll be a group of players who’ll try to make up for Marner’s regular-season points.
However, one has to imagine there’s a certain limit to what the Leafs are willing to pay Robertson. If the arbitration decision exceeds what they believe Robertson is worth, the two sides could agree on another one-year deal or let him walk once and for all.