The Toronto Maple Leafs are most likely going to re-sign center John Tavares. Whether it is because the free agency class is extremely shallow, his history with the team, or just genuinely wanting him to be a part of this team until he retires; he should be playing in the Blue and White next season.
But all that matters now is what the new contract is going to look like. The 34-year-old is not going to warrant some maximum eight-year term with huge dollars, but with the Maple Leafs parting ways with Mitch Marner and having some cap space to actually make an impact on this roster with new acquisitions, it's all about maximizing that space. So, while Tavares is still expected to be getting a massive pay cut from his previous $11 million salary and any contract he signs will take up less space on the Leafs' cap -- it is still best to minimize that impact.
And now, the Maple Leafs have a direct comparable contract to emphatically point to while in future contract negotiations with Tavares's agent.
On Thursday, the Dallas Stars re-signed center Matt Duchene (who just so happens to be the same age as Tavares) to a four-year, $18-million contract with a $4.5 million AAV -- and it's the perfect benchmark for the Leafs and Tavares.
Will it be the same deal? Of course not. That is a very team-friendly deal but Duchene signed it because he wanted to stay in Dallas, live in a state with no income tax, and that is extremely close to the limit to what the Stars could sign him to before they traded anyone away given their salary cap situation. Of course, they traded winger Mason Marchment and his own $4.5-million AAV just several hours after inking the deal with Duchene -- but keeping that number low for Duchene was extremely important and the player was probably happy to play ball.
For Tavares, it'll be different. First, it's Canada so immediately it will be a higher salary, but we do have to assume that Tavares wants to stay, so Toronto has that in their corner. Second, the one major difference is that the Leafs now have plenty of cap space ($25.7 million to sign at least four forwards, specifically) so there is no real limit that Tavares has to be under, like Duchene had to play with and agree to if he wanted to stay with the Stars.
And finally, we haven't mentioned it yet, but Duchene and Tavares have produced basically the same for the last few seasons. Through the last three seasons, Duchene has a 0.87 points per game and Tavares has scored 0.93 points per game. And honestly, maybe if Duchene wasn't on the Predators for one of those seasons and then got to play with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander (no offense to the Stars) on the power play, he would be around that mark as well.
All of this is leading to a contract that will no doubt have a higher salary than Duchene's new deal, but now the Leafs have a reference point. Is it just $1 million more per year because of those previously mentioned factors for Tavares? $2 million? $2.5 million? No one knows but hopefully it doesn't get too high to limit Toronto's chances at making more impact additions this summer.