When the Toronto Maple Leafs won the lottery to take over the first overall pick from this year’s NHL Draft, many believed that they could now land a game changer to immediately turn their fortunes around heading into next season. Amongst the jubilant Leafs fans, that game changer is expected to be none other than Gavin McKenna.
However, with the latest 2026 NHL Mock Draft that The Athletic has come out with recently, the careful analysis that came with the mock selection has certainly has raised some questions for Maple Leafs fans. In the end, it was predicted that Toronto will indeed choose McKenna first overall, but with some unexpected insight.
Should Gavin McKenna be Toronto’s unanimous No. 1 selection at the 2026 NHL Draft?
The Athletic indicated that they think “it isn’t a foregone conclusion that McKenna is the pick for the Leafs”. In fact, they bring up a couple of worrisome points in that “there is some doubt out there about him (McKenna)” and that “there’s a case to be made to prioritize a long-time organizational need on D”.
First of all, it seems like McKenna might not be the obvious No. 1 pick that many have envisioned for the Leafs. There is no question about his elite offensive ability and his way in creating plays that could be unimaginable. But the worry likely stems from the stipulation on whether he can eventually be a complete 200-foot player or instead become a huge liability in the defensive aspects of his game. As a result, it could make the Maple Leafs lean towards someone like Ivar Stenberg, who is believed to be already that player, along with plenty of experience having played against bigger competition in the Swedish Hockey League.
In addition, should the Leafs actually focus on their most important need in recent years, which is a stud, top-pairing defenseman? Morgan Rielly has been the closest homegrown one that Toronto has had during the past decade, but even then, he wasn’t considered on the same elite level as a Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes as such.
The Maple Leafs already have some big star forwards with Auston Matthew, William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies in the mix. Could the missing ingredient to success be getting that No. 1 defenseman that many Cup-winning teams often had? With the huge crop of elite defenders that could all turn out to be future top-pairing stars in the league available at the top of this upcoming draft, should the Leafs afford to pass up on that opportunity, especially with no future first-round picks waiting for them in the next couple of years?
Then again, if McKenna turns out to be the next Connor McDavid or Nathan McKinnon, the Maple Leafs could be shooting themselves in the foot for not taking the obvious choice with the greatest potential and ceiling in the end. As The Athletic has also put it, “there’s risk in chasing a premium position at the expense of a premium talent”. As a result, the tide is still steadily heading towards McKenna, but now there happens to be more potential questions than answers to ponder about as Toronto zones in on the ultimate decision by June.
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