The Toronto Maple Leafs entered play againt the Utah Hockey Club (*ridiculous name, by the way) lasat night with a one point lead (and a game in hand) on the Florida Panthers for first place in the Atlantic Division.
Should the Toronto Maple Leafs have won last night - and I'm going to guess that they probably did, as they are on fire - they will now have a three point lead with each team having played 21 games.
As I wrote last week, winning the Atlantic Division is the key to winning the Stanley Cup. If you win the division, your first round match could be against Buffalo, Ottawa or the Islanders. If you come in second, you could play the Lightning or, less likely, the Bruins (which, OK they aren't doing that great right now, but you still don't want to play them).
Basically, the two best teams are the Panthers and Leafs and whichever one of them loses out on the title has to go through Tampa, which is a ridiculous first-round matchup.
Ladies and Gentleman: Your 1st Place Toronto Maple Leafs
So how do the Leafs stay in first place?
Well, simple: keep getting some of the best goaltending in the NHL. The Leafs are 3rd overall in 5v5 save percentage, and this is making all the difference in their game. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
The Leafs don't possess the puck as much as their opponents, they take the same amount of shots as their opponents and get pretty much the same amount of scoring chances. The Leafs get slightly more dangerous chances than they allow, which is why they have a positinve Expected Goals Percenage, but it's important to know that they are only 12th in the league by the most predictive metric.
Getting Auston Matthews back and overall getting more healthy will help a lot. But the Stanley Cup isn't going to get handed out in November, so if the Leafs want to have long-term success it's important for them to understand that they are currently getting a lot better results than they technically deserve.
Therefore, it is incumbant on Brad Treliving to add one more top-four defenseman, and preferably a number-one. It is important that the Leafs get a 3C (unless it's Fraser Minten) who can make their bottom six something more than the joke its been for most of this season.
The Leafs have a good team and a great roster. Their star power gives them a huge advantage over almost every other team in the NHL. But if they want to stay in first place and win their division they have to improve their ability to possess the puck and their shot-share. They need to fill out their roster and ice a better blue-line and bottom-six.
Yes, Auston Matthtews will be back soon, and yes, the Leafs record without him is impressive, but it's most important that they don't get caught in the classic trap of thinking that they are better than they are during a time when they are getting unsustainably great goaltending.