Jake McCabe signing signals Robidas Island could get crowded in the near future
Jake McCabe's recent contract extension further reinforces the Toronto Maple Leafs cap strategy, namely setting the team up for a number of high-priced contracts hitting LTIR in the not-too-distant future.
The Toronto Maple Leafs announced a five-year contract extension for blue liner Jake McCabe worth $4.5 million AAV. While the deal was not unexpected, it did raise some eyebrows.
Given the going rate for second-pairing defencemen, it’s not a bad deal. However, there are all sorts of questions swirling around the deal that make it questionable from the Toronto Maple Leafs perspective.
First, questions have emerged regarding the deal’s length. A five-year deal for a 32-year-old player, regardless of position, is always risky. In short, the longer the deal, the riskier it becomes.
Second, the AAV is rather high, considering that McCabe is a traditional, one-dimensional defenceman. Sure, he provides toughness and grit. He’s a Craig Berube-type player. But beyond that, there’s really not much upside to McCabe, especially at his age.
Jake McCabe signing signals Robidas Island could get crowded in the near future
While those concerns are certainly valid, the deal looks good in the short term. But as far as the long term is concerned, it's concerning that the Leafs now have committed long-term to four defenseman who are going to be 32 or older next season when this contract kicks in.
The Leafs are setting themselves up for a short-term run with the potential of landing multiple contracts on LTIR down the road. In other words, Robidas Island could get quite crowded in a couple of years’ time.
The top three candidates at this point are Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and now Jake McCabe. The main reason here lies in the fact that older, physical blue liners are injury prone with age. As such, it’s not that these players don’t want to hit the ice. It’s just that their bodies can’t take the toll anymore.
If the Leafs placed all three blue liners on LTIR, that would free up nearly $13 million in cap space. That’s a pretty chunk of change that could land two solid top-four defencemen.
But if two or all three stay healthy as their contracts run out, the Leafs could have themselves an ageing but serviceable blue line at the expense of younger, more useful players.
The Toronto Maple Leafs extend veterans at the cost of prospects
It’s clear the Toronto Maple Leafs are in win-now mode. The clock is ticking on the current core and its competitive window. As such, the Leafs don’t have the luxury of allowing young players to come up and learn the ropes.
However, that approach is a recipe for long-term disaster. Filling the lineup with ageing veterans means that players like Topi Niemela or Mashall Rifai don’t have a lineup spot. Such younger, more versatile blue liners could add more long-term value.
Unfortunately, there are no lineup spots for them. The Leafs are banking on a veteran core that could lead them through two or three rounds. If the stars align, the Leafs could ride that core to a Stanley Cup Final appearance.
Of course, everything would be worth it if the Leafs could end their Cup drought. But that’s easier said than done. The Leafs have yet to prove this team can consistently deliver. Yes, I’ve written about how this current Leafs team has passed tough tests. But those passing grades haven’t necessarily been stellar.
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In my estimation, Brendan Shanahan and Brad Treliving want to win now by kicking the can down the road. Eventually, the team will reach that can and extremely tough decisions will need to be made.