Morgan Rielly was drafted 5th overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft.
Since being drafted to Toronto, the Vancouver native has played 12 seasons with the Maple Leafs making their way to the playoffs in eight of these twelve seasons.
However, throughout all of these post season runs the Leafs have yet to win more then 1 round through eight playoff campaigns. Throughout Morgan Riellys 12 seasons with the Leafs he has been largely considered their number-one defenseman and a reliable leader to his teammates as he enters his ninth season as an assistant captain.
The blue liner has played 841 games with the Leafs posting 85 goals and 409 assists, in addition to 40 points through 57 playoff games. The Toronto Maple Leaf blue-line is average at best, and that is because it lacks an elite number-one defenseman. (nhl.com).
Perhaps, several years ago, at his peak, that was Rielly. It clearly isn't the case today, and that's OK.
Is Morgan Rielly Capable of Being the Top Defenseman the Maple Leafs Need?
Rielly signed with the Leafs in 2022 and is signed until 2030 with the leafs at AAV of 7.5 million, a sizeable cap hit that could be distributed other ways to strengthen the team, but which is perfectly in line with the value Rielly brings to the team as a very, very good #2.
With Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe essentially becoming the top pairing and playing the toughest minutes, Rielly has a chance to excel in a lesser role, and maybe that is what is happening, as he leads all Leafs defenseman in Expected Goals Percentage since December 1st. (stats from naturalstattrick.com).
Rielly currently has 22 points through 50 games played and currently sits at 33rd among defensemen point totals. This is a stark departure from his 2023- 2024 stats where he finished the season 11th among point leaders for defensemen. However, it should be noted that the Leafs dump and chase a lot, and that their top scorers do not get anywhere near the offensive zone faceoffs that other superstars enjoy.
That, as much as anything, has contributed to Rielly's decline in scoring. Another factor is that he has the lowest on-ice shooting percentage that he has posted in seven seasons. This isn't to say that Rielly's decline in scoring is 100% explainable or even acceptable, but just to show that it's not caused by a complete decline in play.
Rielly has a positive Expected Goals Percentage overall, and he's been even better over the last two months, so his game is moving in the right direction. That said, the Leafs have a clear top-four and Rielly has been the 4th most valuable overall this season. According to the Athletics' Player Cards, Chris Tanev whos is rated a 9, is the Leafs most valuable, follwed by McCabe (8) OEL (7) and Rielly (2).
Part of Rielly's problem this year has been his partner. The most common partner has been OEL, but they do horrible together (they posted a 46% Expected Goals rating) and both do much better apart. Rielly's second most common partner is Phillipe Myers, and while they have posted good numbers, Myers is clearly outmatched in a top-four role.
Still, the fact that his lack of production can be explained and the fact that he's posted significantly better numbers since he stopped playing regularly with Ekman-Larsson are positive things going forward, and at his salary, Rielly doesn't need to be a number-one defenseman anymore - $7 million is perfectly reasonable for a very good second pairing anchor.
According to the Athletic, the market value for Quinn Hughes is about $14 million. Now, Hughes is one of the best of all-time and a sure-fire hall of famer, so we shouldn't be comparing him to Rielly, but the point here is to put Rielly's contract in context: If the best defenseman is worth double what the Leafs are paying Rielly, it's likely not a bad deal for the Leafs.
While Rielly has had success over his 12 seasons with the Leafs, he is 30 now and likely not as good as he was at his peak. He will never be the number-one defenseman the Leafs need, but that's OK. His salary is reasonable and while it might be worth trading him (as Tanev, OEL and McCabe are all locked in long-term) he does have a full no-movement clause.
Rielly had a rough start to the season but he's improved greatly the last two months. He is the best puck-mover on a Leafs blue-line that is way, way below average at moving the puck, and he can't be traded regardless. The important thing is to stop viewing him through the lens we view the likes of Makar and Hughes through. The Leafs need Rielly, he's a valuable player, but he's not and never will be a number-one defenseman.