How the Kirill Marchenko trade affects the Maple Leafs' salary cap

The Toronto Maple Leafs' massive trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday came with its share of issues well beyond the evident names changing jerseys.

These issues specifically pertain to the salary cap situation for Toronto.

Namely, the whirlwind of contracts coming and going had an immediate impact on the Maple Leafs’ situation this season. But the moves also have a massive impact well beyond this season.

Let’s start by looking at how the trade affects the cap this season.

Maple Leafs moves have massive impact this season

On the whole, trading Matthew Knies was a bit of a necessity. His $7.75 million cap hit was sort of getting in the way of the Maple Leafs being cap-compliant to start the season. Clearing Knies’ cap hit would have done the trick, basically. However, the Maple Leafs were also taking on Marchenko’s current $3.85 million cap hit.

Some quick math reveals that Toronto gained $3.9 million in cap space by trading Knies and taking on the final year of Marchenko’s contract.

However, the Maple Leafs also took on Miles Wood’s contract, as the Blue Jackets were adamant about clearing his name off their books. That’s why Wood and his full $2.5 million deal went to Toronto.

That left the Maple Leafs with $1.4 million.

But that’s before considering that Emil Andrae and Steven Lorentz went to Columbus as well. As a side note, Lorentz was no longer in Toronto’s plans, while Andrae got squeezed out by Nick Blankenburg. That’s why the Leafs traded him now instead of losing him for nothing by placing him on waivers.

So, that was another $2.9 million the Leafs shed off the books.

What makes this entire trade curious is why the Maple Leafs agreed to take on Elvis Merzlikins.

There’s a logical reason to that as well.

Merzlikins provides Toronto with more LTIR money

The Maple Leafs were already planning to add Max Domi to LTIR. That move alone saves the Maple Leafs $3.75 million. Meanwhile, adding Merzlikins, who just happens to be hurt, means Toronto is adding another contract that will land on LTIR to start the season.

That’s interesting because it gives John Chayka a little more wiggle room this season, particularly if it means dressing a full 23-man roster to start the season.

Now, Merzlikins is in the final year of his current five-year deal. He comes with a $5.4 million cap hit, of which the Jackets retained 18%. That leaves Toronto on the hook for $4.428 million. Now, we’re talking about Domi’s $3.75 million cap hit, plus Merzlikins’ $4.428 million, totaling $8.17 million in LTIR money.

But there’s a catch. You see, teams can’t write off the full amount of a player’s cap hit to LTIR. There’s actually a threshold of $3.9 million that a team can write off for any given player. That threshold covers Domi’s $3.75 million, but it doesn’t cover Merzlikins’ full cap hit, as it exceeds the threshold. As such, the Leafs can only write off $3.9 million of Merzlikins’ $4.428 million.

That situation gives the Leafs a total of $7.65 million in LTIR relief, while leaving Toronto on the hook for $528K of Merzlikins’ cap hit.

When you add up the total, the Leafs have about $3.7 million in artificial cap space they’ve created based solely on LTIR money.

What about Marchenko’s extension?

Well, Marchenko’s extension has no bearing on the Maple Leafs THIS season. The extension doesn’t kick in until next season. In fact, some may argue that the Leafs overpaid by giving the Russian forward $12.5 million AAV over six seasons.

That was a total that even the best Canada online sportsbooks couldn’t predict that was going to be Marchenko’s cap hit.

But here we are. We are in an era in which players scoring 20+ goals make that much money per season.

It’s worth pointing out that PuckPedia projects that the Maple Leafs will have about $3.9 million in cap space for next season. That amount factors in Marchenko’s new cap hit, taking into account the increase in the cap.

It’s also worth noting that the potential cap crunch next season should be temporary, as rumors suggest that the cap will jump to $127.5 million in 2028-29, up from $113.5 million for next season.

As a result, the increase in the overall cap ceiling should water down Marchenko’s overall cap hit. That’s something that Canada sports betting is pricing into the various contract projections for the coming seasons.

Toronto may not be done with moves

The big question at this point pertains to the Maple Leafs being done with moves.

The short answer is no. John Chayka is trying his best to erase the vestiges of Brad Treliving’s failed regime.

Matthew Knies and his contract was one of them.

As such, the Maple Leafs will be looking to make more moves. With a little more LTIR money, the Leafs might be able to figure out what to do.

Oh, incidentally, Miles Wood is unlikely to make the team. Since he cleared waivers, the Maple Leafs can confidently send him down to the Marlies. From there, it remains to be seen what the club does. He may be a good soldier, report, and collect his salary. A mutual contract termination is unlikely unless there’s a team out there that wants him, but at a lower cap hit.

We shall see. The Leafs are likely going to continue their wheeling and dealing, especially if injuries become a factor moving forward.

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