When a player is drafted into the NHL, the hopes for them and their team, as well as the fanbase, are that they will eventually see them play in the show, thanks to development. However, the end of development could unfortunately be closing in for Topi Niemela. In the 2020 NHL Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Niemela in the third round (64th overall). The defenceman was expected to be on a top pairing for the Leafs' blueline in the years to come. However, Niemela has yet to suit up for the team in regular-season action.
As mentioned, there were expectations for him to be a top blueliner on the Leafs, along with former young prospect Rasmus Sandin, who was also envisioned as a top blueliner for the team. Niemela was mainly praised for the way he moves the puck as a defenceman. He also showed great vision and was able to make a pass whenever it was possible. He was also seen as someone who wasn't afraid to take a shot on goal and walk into the slot.
This season, for the Malmö Redhawks of the SHL (Swedish Hockey League), Niemela has 15 points (four goals, 11 assists) in 43 games played. Those totals make him the second-highest-scoring blueliner on the Redhawks so far this season, but those numbers are much less than what Niemela is capable of putting up. In his last five games played, he has put up only two points (a goal and an assist) and three points (two goals, one assist) in his last 10 games played.
His development looked promising when he spent two seasons (2023-25) in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies. In the 2023-24 season, Niemela put up 39 points (eight goals, 31 assists), which led the team in points and goals by a blueliner, as well as third on the team in assists and sixth on the team in points. A season like that from Niemela is what the Leafs have already hoped they would get from the youngster in the NHL.
In the 2024-25 season, Niemela had a down year compared to the season before. In 61 games played, he only recorded 22 points (two goals, 20 assists). The bright side of that is he was still second among defencemen in points on the team, and his assist numbers were still up, although nothing like the previous year.
Similar to his 2023-24 season, Niemela was good for Kärpät, a team based in Finland that competes in Liiga, when he suited up for them for the 2021-22 season. Niemela tallied 32 points (10 goals, 22 assists) in 48 games played. In that season with Kärpät, and the two seasons spent with the Marlies, Niemela was slowly starting to prove what all the fuss about him was about.
Is the development window really closing?
Given how promising Niemela was supposed to be for the Leafs, it's disappointing that he hasn't panned out to be what the fans and team had hoped. With his performance this season, the needle is shifting to the 'closed' portion of the development window. However, given the fact that he is only 23 years-old still provides some wiggle room for a resurgence from Niemela, but that will need to happen almost immediately.
As of right now, Niemela is playing through his one-year deal with the Redhawks, but if he finishes the season strong, the Leafs could come up knocking to offer him a place in the organization once again. If he does finish the season strong and show flashes of why he was highly praised, expect him to be back in the Leafs' organization sometime soon. The Redhawks' last scheduled SHL game is on March 13, which gives Niemela a small timeframe to work with. He is still young and has a lot left to prove before the decision on whether the window is fully closed or not.