A new chapter has officially begun for the Toronto Maple Leafs, once again, as they selected Penn State winger and young phenom, Gavin McKenna, first overall this past weekend. With the draft celebrations winding down slowly and the reality kicking in, the tide turns to the upcoming NHL season, where Leafs fans are excited to see the 18-year-old in action.
Many are hyped to see what McKenna can do alongside fellow and former first overall selection, Auston Matthews and company. While he has yet to step out onto the ice, NHL Fantasy has already projected what the Yukon native will provide for the Leafs in his first year in the show.
According to the prediction, McKenna could put up 22 goals and 41 assists, totalling 63 points. Should he successfully meet this, he would immediately etch his name into a couple of Leafs rookie records. McKenna would tie Michael Bunting, who recorded 63 points in the 2021-22 season. In assists, should he actually get 41 of them, he would be second among all-time Leafs rookies, behind Mitch Marner, who currently holds the title with 42 helpers in 2016-17.
NHL fantasy has released Gavin McKenna’s projected rookie season totals:
— Leafslatest (@Leafslatest) June 28, 2026
22 goals, 41 assists, for 63 points
For reference, here are what the last three first overall picks have done in their rookie seasons:
🔹 Matthew Schaefer: 23G, 36A, 59PTS
🔹 Macklin Celebrini: 25G, 38A,… pic.twitter.com/wUypJ9rrR6
Not to mention, as the X posting above states, McKenna would join an elite, young group of past first overall selections who put up similar numbers. The 2023 first overall pick, Connor Bedard, put up 61 points (22 goals, 39 assists) in 68 games played, which, funny enough, led all skaters on the Chicago Blackhawks that year.
The 2024 top pick, Macklin Celebrini, tallied 63 points (25 goals, 38 assists) in 70 games played. Finally, Matthew Schaefer, the 2025 top pick, recorded 59 points (23 goals, 36 assists) in a full 82 games played and is the most recent recipient of the Calder Trophy. As this seems to be a new standard, McKenna should be able to meet it.
A solid total can be good for not just McKenna, but his new linemates
Having McKenna match, or even soar past, this prediction would also benefit the players around him, especially Matthews. It's no secret that the Leafs' captain showed signs of regression last season while battling injuries. Now with a new, highly-skilled potential running mate, Matthews has a chance to once again get back into the sharpshooting, Hart Trophy-esque form he once was a couple of years ago.
While it's still unclear where McKenna will play in the lineup, there has to be some hope that we could see him in the top six. Sharing a line with Matthews and either William Nylander or Easton Cowan has to at least provide a boost throughout the lineup and bring some much-desired scoring.
Nonetheless, McKenna has shown how good a player he is on multiple occasions, most recently at Penn State and for the Medicine Hat Tigers a couple of years ago. The prediction, as mentioned before, should be a walk in the park for someone with the playstyle of the 2026 first overall pick.
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