Evaluating the Toronto Maple Leafs Cup chances for the 2024-2025 season
Will a coaching change and defensive additions be enough to achieve postseason success?
The Toronto Maple Leafs start the 2024-2025 regular season this Wednesday, October 9th against their Original Six Atlantic Division rival Montreal Canadiens. After sorting through last-minute lineup decisions, the games now count.
The familiar core of newly-appointed captain Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and Morgan Rielly will lead the Maple Leafs on the ice, but they have a new voice behind the bench.
Craig Berube was hired within a few weeks after the Leafs first-round Game 7 exit against the Boston Bruins that ended their 2024 season. He replaces long-time coach Sheldon Keefe.
Despite speculation around a Marner trade, general manager Brad Treliving and Maple Leafs management decided against making a significant move. Instead, the Leafs used free agency to make substantial additions to their defense and goaltending.
Will a coaching change plus the defensive and goaltending additions be enough for Toronto to finally achieve postseason success?
Berube is energizing Leafs
Berube didn't take long to make his mark with the Leafs. Day 1 of training camp involved lots of skating and drills with puck battles. It's not unusual for a new coach to set a different tone with their players, but Berube's history within the league as both a player and a Cup-winning coach has most approving the hire.
The feedback from the Leafs players has been positive. The lines of communication between the coach and player have been open and Berube is very direct and clear on his expectations.
The team appears energized by their new leader behind the bench. Much of the roster, especially the Leafs most important players, have been hearing the same message and dealing with the same questions for multiple years.
Berube, along with new assistants Marc Savard and Lane Lambert, have invigorated many of the veteran players with fresh ideas. There is always adversity to overcome during a long NHL season, but the status quo with Keefe was not an option. The Maple Leafs will reap the benefits of Berube and the new assistants pushing them to greater heights.
The Leafs are deep up front
The Leafs forward depth is the envy of most teams around the NHL. Matthews, Nylander, and Marner are stars. Tavares is still likely a star player and young players like Matthew Knies and Nick Robertson should only get better.
Robertson found new life during the Maple Leafs preseason under Berube. The problem for the coaching staff is figuring out where to fit him in the lineup, if everyone is healthy.
Veteran Max Pacioretty and Robertson are wingers best suited for roles within the top nine forwards, although Jason Spezza did very well in a fourth line role, which is where Pacioretty should be playing. Last year's surprise, Bobby McMann and Calle Jarnkrok will be trying to keep their places within the top three lines.
The Leafs will benefit from the internal competition. They are also well-suited to withstand the inevitable injuries that will come throughout an eighty-two-game schedule.
The biggest task for the coaching staff and management is figuring out the line combinations that will set them up for postseason success. Underrated, but necessary, is finding a trustworthy, productive fourth line out of players.
As for individual performances, look for Matthews, Marner, and Nylander to once again drive the Leafs up front.
Matthews is the league's best goal scorer. Combined with his strong defensive play, he is the game's second-best player behind Connor McDavid. Expecting Matthews to chase seventy goals again this season is unrealistic. However, his internal drive combined with wearing the "C" symbolizing the Maple Leafs are now his team, means another big season ahead. Scoring sixty goals, another Rocket Richard Trophy and another Selke nomination are plausible.
Marner should be motivated heading towards unrestricted free agency next July. Another large contract awaits, either with the Leafs (his stated desire) or elsewhere. Either way, an inspired Marner is advantageous for the Maple Leafs.
Nylander is a proven forty-goal scorer whose numbers continue to ascend year after year. While his streak of setting new career marks in points every year will eventually stop, forty goals and a hundred points have become the norm.
Even with Berube emphasizing defensive play, the Maple Leafs should again be near the top of the league in goals scored. It will be a disappointment if they are not among the top three goal-scoring teams in the NHL.
The Leafs defense is slightly improved
Chris Tanev was the Leafs biggest free-agent acquisition. Signing the 34-year-old to a six-year term is questionable, but Treliving desperately wanted his skillset added to the blue line.
The Maple Leafs also added Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jani Hakanpaa to their defense. Both are veterans that come with risk and low expectations.
Ekman-Larsson was solid in the Mark Giordano role with the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, but his career looked to be derailing before that. Toronto gave him a crazy four-year deal and he will be asked to do more with the Leafs than he did with the Panthers, which is likely a mistake. Whether he can handle the added responsibility will be an important key for the Leafs defense.
Hakanpaa comes with significant injury concerns surrounding his knee. If he can eventually join the lineup, his size and reach should help the team's atrocious penalty killing, but hurt them at even-strength where he won't be anywhere close to effective.
Adding Tanev makes the Leafs better. Not playing Liljegren makes them worse. It's hard to know what to make of the Leafs blue-line. It's very, very old and very average. It might be good, but their lack of a high-end option will hurt them more than anything else.
The biggest concern is this is an aging group. The Leafs top defensemen are all 30 or older. Injuries are likely to be an issue. A decline in play is sure to happen for some of these players within a couple of years. The team's defense is better, but it doesn't measure up to most other title contenders.
The Toronto Maple Leafs goaltending has more potential
The Maple Leafs goaltending duo of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz is relatively inexperienced. Neither has played more than thirty regular season games during their careers. Veteran Matt Murray is third-string insurance and top prospect Dennis Hildeby will get another year of seasoning with the Toronto Marlies.
Despite the lack of playing time, Woll and Stolarz offer more upside than any recent Toronto goaltenders. The Leafs history is littered with goalies who single-handedly won them playoff series. Felix Potvin, Curtis Joseph, and Ed Belfour all led the Maple Leafs on long playoff runs.
Woll has demonstrated over the past two postseasons that he is capable of being the next Toronto goalie to achieve postseason success. Staying healthy has been the issue, as injuries have delayed his progress.
Stolarz provides competition for Woll and desires more playing time for himself. The Leafs have protected themselves well in goal by bringing back Murray and allowing Hildeby to continue his development.
The ceiling of Woll and Stolarz gives the Leafs a tandem that can close the gap in goal with their Atlantic Division counterparts. Toronto now has the personnel in goal to challenge the Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Boston Bruins for division supremacy.
Where will the Leafs finish?
The Leafs enviable depth at forward, improved defense, and potential in goal give them a realistic shot at winning their division. The team has yet to win the Atlantic during the Matthews-Marner era. Two second-place finishes, and the home-ice advantage that comes with it, have been the highlight.
This golden era of regular season success and eight consecutive playoff seasons has been overshadowed by playoff disappointments. The Leafs star players are now all in their prime years with an optimum window of 3-4 more years to win a championship.
Sorting out a fourth line, further improving the defense, and Berube showing his players the way to playoff success are obstacles the Maple Leafs need to overcome.
Regardless of the weaknesses, there is a lot to like with this team. The Leafs are loaded at forward. A healthy Woll and Matthew Knies continuing his growth make them even more dangerous. The defense, while still having warts, should be better.
Combine all of that with the injection of energy and a new beginning under Berube, the Leafs are primed for success. Their biggest division rivals have problems, too.
The Bruins forwards look weak. The Lightning are dealing with the loss of their long-time captain. The Panthers might take awhile to get going after winning the Stanley Cup and suffering the loss of some key players.
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Winning the Atlantic provides the best path to winning in the playoffs. The time is right for the Toronto Maple Leafs to take first place in their division. It says here, that they do. Berube and his players will be hard at work between now and next spring to make sure it's not their only accomplishment.