The Toronto Maple Leafs have an immense opportunity to nab an elite talent at the top of the 2026 NHL Draft after winning the lottery on Tuesday. But, it might not be the elite talent everyone thinks.
Conversations are already starting. The presumed and projected first-overall selection has been winger Gavin McKenna ever since he started playing junior hockey years ago, but the rise of Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg and what he has shown at the pro level in the SHL is calling McKenna's status into question.
Both are incredibly talented players, but just different. And almost immediately after the Maple Leafs were picked as the team to get the top pick at the 2026 NHL Draft, some analysts came out to say who they would take.
Analyst says the Maple Leafs should not take Gavin McKenna at first overall
Sportsnet's Jason Bukala was one of them and in a segment shortly after the lottery balls were drawn as part of the fallout, he planted his flag and said that if he were running the Maple Leafs' draft table, that it would be Stenberg at first overall, over McKenna.
Jason Bukala explains why he'd take Ivar Stenberg over Gavin McKenna at No. 1 overall if he were making the Maple Leafs' pick... https://t.co/3luJft0Kdm
— luke fox (@lukefoxjukebox) May 6, 2026
"I'm going Stenberg, guys. I know that might not be the most popular opinion but that's what I'm doing," Bukala said.
"And I liken it to back in the day when we drafted Aleksander Barkov in New Jersey. And yeah, we fell to second in the Draft in Florida that year but are choices were going to be MacKinnon or Barkov -- and I can tell you, we were splitting hairs behind the scenes. Now fast forward to today, they're both elite athletes, we get it, but what we were going to get out of Barkov is getting that we knew he was going to do everything for us and that was going to make us better as a team. And I think that's what you're going to get out of Stenberg."
Bukala served as the Florida Panthers' assistant director of amateur scouring from 2011 to 2015, and then was promoted as the director of amateur scouting from 2016 to 2020. So he has seen a whole lot of drafts and in Florida, a whole lot of choices between high-end talents at the top of the Draft.
"You guys know better than anybody, the NHL is hard. On your hard days you better be able to do more than just have an A-game, that B-game has to rise to the occasion to have team success at the hardest time of the year. So that's why I'm still leaning Stenberg."
Bukala then went on to talk more about their potential ceilings and comparing the two wingers and what they can bring to the table.
"Let me put it this way. You might see a guy who might be a 100-point guy, but he might be a zero. And then you're going to get Stenberg, who is going to be an 80-point guy and he's going to be a plus-25. Are they both going to contribute to a winning organization down the road? I certainly hope so. I'm pulling for these kids.
"But right now, if you put me on the clock for the Toronto Maple Leafs, I'm going Stenberg."
That's certainly a thought.
What do the Maple Leafs truly need?
It is very tough to project either of these players into what they are at the NHL level. Every single year people say that this player is going to score this many points and be this good, and then they end up playing in the AHL until they retire at 29 years old. Obviously that won't be the case with the top selection, but it's easier to think of these players not reaching these incredibly high peaks.
So, when the time gets tough and the Maple Leafs want to compete for the Stanley Cup, which player would you rather have? A flashy Nikita Kucherov that doesn't do much defensively? Or, a Sebastian Aho that would contribute more to the overall game in all three zones, but might only score a point per game.
It's certainly a debate that we will be having all the way up until the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft on June 27.
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