Connor McDavid signing with Maple Leafs is a longshot

Connor McDavid recently addressed his NHL future at Team Canada's Olympic orientation camp, offering cautious comments about resigning with the Edmonton Oilers, that had some fans dreaming of a Maple Leafs homecoming.
Nov 16, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN;  Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) reacts after being called for a minor penalty against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Nov 16, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) reacts after being called for a minor penalty against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Toronto Maple Leafs fans hoping for a Connor McDavid homecoming may want to pump the brakes. While speculation continues to swirl around the superstar's long-term future, McDavid has offered little to fuel the fantasy.

Speaking recently during Team Canada's Olympic orientation camp, the Oilers captain struck a measured tone when asked about resigning in Edmonton, echoing the patience he expressed during his postseason press conference after a second straight Stanley Cup Final loss to the Florida Panthers.

McDavid has one year remaining on his contract with the Oilers, so the longer time drags on without his signature on a new deal, conjecture will increase about what lies ahead for the NHL's top player.

Having grown up north of Toronto in Newmarket, Ontario, it's natural for supporters of the Maple Leafs to dream about the possibility of hockey's premier star returning home. Despite McDavid's cautious approach to an extension with Edmonton, Toronto fans should temper their expectations.

McDavid's measured comments excite some Leafs fans

Contrary to other top NHL stars, McDavid has stated he is willing to be patient and is in no rush to sign a new contract. His peers, such as teammate Leon Draisaitl, Auston Matthews of the Maple Leafs, and Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche, all signed extensions with their current teams before their contractual status became a distraction.

On multiple occasions, McDavid has demonstrated patience and restraint regarding his contract. McDavid's hesitancy has left some fans in Toronto dreaming of his homecoming. Social media was abuzz after McDavid's comments.

"How many years until you're a Maple Leaf??" and "Connor McDavid, it's time to come home" were some of the replies by excited Toronto fans.

The reactions by Maple Leafs fans are understandable. Some are undeniably excited about the possibility, and others could be teasing their counterparts in Edmonton.

McDavid's contract situation is sure to gather more headlines the further it drags on, but there are many reasons for Leafs fans to tone down the assumption of him suiting up with Toronto.

Why McDavid to the Leafs remais a longshot

First off, McDavid reiterated Wednesday that he has "every intention to win in Edmonton." His inclusion of the word "win" is important. McDavid's is already on the short-list of the all-time great NHL players, but a title will put him in the same class as Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, and Gordie Howe.

McDavid has been oh-so-close in back-to-back seasons with the Oilers. Redemption for those heartbreaking losses will be the sole focus for the remainder of his career.

After those defeats to the Panthers, it's a shrewd move for McDavid to exude patience and ensure that Edmonton does everything possible to help him achieve the ultimate goal. McDavid should take as much time as he needs to feel satisfied that the Oilers are doing just that.

As McDavid nears free agency, it is a good negotiation tactic not to show your hand by being overexuberant if he's thinking of re-signing with the Oilers. By playing out the 2025-2026 season, McDavid will have every team in the NHL interested in his services as next summer approaches. He can reset the NHL market for player salaries, with an increasing salary cap, and choose what team he thinks gives him the best chance for a title.

A final splash of cold water on the possibility of McDavid in Toronto was NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman's analysis of the situation. He stated that he takes McDavid at his word and believes "he wants to win in Edmonton," and "I don't believe he's thinking of playing anywhere else."

"He wants to win in Edmonton. I don't believe he's thinking of playing anywhere else."
Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman on McDavid

It makes perfect sense for McDavid to slow-play his contact situation. Winning is what drives him. The longer he goes without a new deal, it will become an immense story, with two huge Canadian hockey markets dissecting every move. For now, fans of the Maple Leafs should proceed with caution on a McDavid homecoming.

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