The Toronto Maple Leafs are reportedly asking for a first-rounder in exchange of Bobby McMann but can the team actually secure that?
If all it took was a prospect and a conditional third-rounder to acquire Artemi Panarin, the Leafs can't seriously think they can get a first-rounder for McMann, right? Maybe they are dellusional what the market is because they've traded their own firsts away for Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo, but what is the real market for McMann?
When it comes to acquiring draft picks, the marketplace is completely different for every player and situation. There are times where a team will "overpay" for a player but it will work out. For example, the Tampa Bay Lightning traded away a first-rounder for Blake Coleman, who's a third/fourth-liner, but he helped them win a Stanley Cup.
When your team is nearly perfect like the Lightning and you know that this one specific player can be the cherry on top to help win a championship, you will overpay. However, in almost any other situation, a reasonable pay for Coleman would be a 4th rounder.
So that's where the conversation gets tricky with McMann. If you look at the NHL Trade Deadline last year, here were some of the biggest trades that involved a first-round pick (via: NHL.com)
- Florida Panthers acquire forward Brad Marchand from the Boston Bruins for a conditional 2nd-round pick (turned into a 1st-rounder) in the 2027 NHL Draft
- Toronto Maple Leafs acquire defenseman Brandon Carlo from the Boston Bruins for forward Fraser Minten, a conditional 1st-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft and a 4th-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft
- Dallas Stars acquire forward Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes for forward Logan Stankoven, a conditional 1st-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, a conditional 1st-round pick in the 2028 NHL Draft, a 3rd-round pick in 2026 and a 3rd-round pick in the 2027 NHL Draft
- Colorado Avalanche acquire forwards Brock Nelson and William Dufour from New York Islanders for forward Calum Ritchie, defenseman Oliver Kylington, a 1st-round pick in the 2026 or 2027 NHL Draft and a 3rd-round pick in 2028
- Toronto Maple Leafs acquire forward Scott Laughton, a 4th-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft and a 6th-round pick in the 2027 NHL Draft from the Philadelphia Flyers for forward Nikita Grebenkin and a 1st-round pick in the 2027 NHL Draft
- Edmonton Oilers acquire defenseman Jake Walman from San Jose Sharks for conditional 1st-round pick in 2026 NHL Draft and forward Carl Berglund
- Dallas Stars acquire forward Mikael Granlund and defenseman Cody Ceci from the San Jose Sharks for a 1st-round pick and a 3rd-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft
Leafs should be able to acquire a first for McMann
If you study these trades closely, it makes sense that Brad Marchand, Mikko Rantanen and Brock Nelson were acquired with first-round picks. However, I'd say that it was a slight overpay to trade a first-round pick for Brandon Carlo, Scott Laughton, Jake Walman and Mikael Granlund/Cody Ceci.
As such, after reviewing some trades from last year, I think it's safe to assume that there will be a team who will overpay for McMann because he's very desireable. He's a multiple 20-goal scorer, has a ton of speed and is a pending UFA, who makes less than $2M AAV. Even if a contender trades for him and he walks away, every team can add him into the line-up without giving up a roster player, which is a huge plus.
Bearish fans may look at McMann as a key to future sucess in Toronto, but he's a replaceable player. He's way too inconsistent and the team can find another forward to play alongside Matthews. Even if McMann turns into Zach Hyman, should the Leafs really pay McMann close to $5M AAV next year? Probably not.
As a result, it's time for the Leafs to pack McMann's bags and send him to any team that's willing to offer them a first-round pick.