Think of the best NHL teams from the last couple decades, especially Stanley Cup winners. Count how many of them didn't have a star defenseman or two.
If the Toronto Maple Leafs hope to contend for a Stanley Cup this season, they need Morgan Rielly to make his best possible impression of an elite defenseman.
Considering how quiet they were in free agency and on the trade market, it's a big and dangerous bet.
What went wrong for Rielly last Leafs season
By just about any standard, Rielly just endured a season to forget.
His production slipped from 58 to 41 points, making it tougher to stomach the weaknesses that always come with his strengths.
Frankly, you could even ask if Rielly is a clear-cut No.1 defenseman. After all, Jake McCabe averaged slightly more ice time during both the regular season and playoffs.
An iffy regular season would've been forgotten, but things instead got worse.
Generally speaking, Rielly ranks alongside William Nylander as Leafs with good playoff reputations, even inspiring the occasional meme.
The wheels really fell off this playoff go-round, though. After an up-and-down series against the Ottawa Senators, the Florida Panthers ripped Rielly and the Leafs apart. Rielly wasn't alone in suffering against the repeat champs, but that doesn't explain away a putrid 42.82 percent expected goals rate.
Another dour Game 7 looms largest, as Florida scored three of its six goals with Rielly on the ice.
Where Rielly can and can't improve
To an extent, Morgan Rielly is who he is.
Unless he absorbs some sort of own-zone osmosis from Chris Tanev, he's likely always going to struggle in his own zone. Generally, you're worrying about a 31-year-old defenseman enduring a scary decline, not crossing your fingers for some magical breakthrough.
So, the bad news is that it's foolish to expect Rielly to make his flaws evaporate into the cool fall air. The bright side is that, overall, his pros outweigh his cons, and he could improve that "plus/minus" this season.
Most simply, Rielly could reinforce his spot on the top PP unit after the Maple Leafs frequently rolled with five forwards last season. His 14 PPP weren't pathetic, but well off the 20+ he usually generates.
On paper, that might not translate to a gigantic leap in production, but don't underestimate the pyschological benefits of ending up on the right side of the scoresheet. Generating more points could earn some goodwill from Craig Berube, and maybe prompt fewer annoying questions from critics.
Broadly, luck stats such as shooting percentage fall in line with expectations for Rielly, but there is a more nuanced number that could improve in 2025-26. During his career, Rielly averages a stats through percentage -- getting a shot on goal instead of missing the net or having your shot blocked -- of 47.3. Last season he only got 41.6 percent of his shots on net, the second-worst mark of his career.
Ideally, Rielly improves his accuracy with another year in Berube's system, giving his offense a subtle boost.
Unfortunately, minor tweaks won't propel Rielly to the Norris tier. At age 31, there's arguably just as much risk that things will only get worse for Rielly.
It's reasonable to expect a nice bump in production, and with that, perception next season. Considering their lack of major defensive improvements this offseason, it's crucial for the Maple Leafs to get the best version of Rielly in 2025-26.