As the first overall draft pick of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Gavin McKenna will be heavily scrutinized as he finds his way in the NHL. The former Penn State Nittany Lion has already been very visible this summer, making public appearances in Toronto, taking part in the NHL Rookie Showcase, and training with a high-profile partner.
Soon the focus will shift to his on-ice progress when he joins his new teammates for training camp next month. Speculation has already started about where he best fits into the lineup and how new Leafs coach Jim Hiller will use him.
McKenna has an advantage over other recent first-overall picks in that he is surrounded by established stars like Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares, so he won't have the burden of carrying the load offensively for the Maple Leafs. But what are reasonable expectations for this young elite talent during his rookie season and beyond? That was a point of discussion on a recent episode of TSN's OverDrive.
OverDrive Host Sets Aggressive Benchmark for Leafs McKenna
In a segment called "Take It or Leave It," the OverDrive panel of host Bryan Hayes and guests Keegan Matheson and Dave Feschuk were presented with the option of McKenna achieving 150 points over the first three years with the Leafs, the duration of his entry-level contract. That would mean an average of fifty points per year for the 18-year-old over his first contract.
Feschuk said he would take that. Hayes agreed that fifty points as a rookie would be "phenomenal," but then suggested that fifty points on average after his third season as the first overall pick in the draft would be "very underwhelming." Hayes then argued, "I think in three years, you're hoping the guy's a point-a-game player at that point in his career." After Feschuk questioned if McKenna would be a point-a-game player over his career, Hayes adamantly responded, "First overall pick, he better be."
The Toronto Star columnist then changed his answer. He would leave that offer and hope for more from McKenna after three years. Feschuk substantiated his response, saying, "He's shown a lot of indication that he's got more. Like this guy looks like a world-class playmaker, a world-class processor of the game." He went on to say that hockey is a young man's game and that players need to make things happen quickly, saying McKenna has the talent to do so.
Matheson also expected more of McKenna than averaging fifty points per year over his first three seasons. He noted the many young players in the NHL breaking out early in their careers, and after three seasons, he wants more from McKenna.
Hayes finished off the debate and gave a more specific, forthright expectation of McKenna by his third year. "I think it's totally realistic and reasonable to project in Year 3 this guy could be pushing up on a hundred points."
"I think it is totally realistic and reasonable to project in Year 3 this guy could be pushing up on a hundred points."Bryan Hayes on Gavin McKenna
He defended his forecast by pointing out McKenna is a first-overall pick and an "uber talent that is a points machine throughout his junior career and his collegiate career." He recognized the first-half struggles McKenna had at Penn State, but countered that with his dominant second half that resulted in a top-ten Hobey Baker finish.
The OverDrive host reiterated that a fifty-point rookie year for McKenna would be great as an 18-year-old. He added other variables, such as Hiller's usage of him and who he plays with, as first-year deterrents to his success.
Feschuk then brought up former Leafs' star Mitch Marner's first three NHL seasons. His point totals were 61, 69, then 94 by Year 3. "I think that's a reasonable parallel, offensively," Hayes added, but noted Marner was a far more advanced all-around player early in his career. He commented Marner was a remarkable offensive talent in junior, but "McKenna is just as hyped, if not more hyped, offensively, than what Marner was."
Hayes finished by saying he wasn't predicting McKenna to reach the century mark in points by his third season in Toronto, but said that it's not "unreasonable." He cited how good the Maple Leafs will be and the future of players like Matthews and Knies as factors that will also determine McKenna's success over the next few seasons. Hayes remarked he wouldn't be shocked if McKenna put up similar numbers to Marner over his first few years, and the Leafs should be "ecstatic" if he does, since he literally would have replaced Marner's production.
Hayes, Matheson, and Fescuk are certainly not the only people in and around Toronto with big expectations for McKenna. His production is sure to be closely monitored as he embarks on his NHL career with the Maple Leafs. All that is left to do is watch and see if he can live up to the hype.
Add us as a preferred source on Google