Auston Matthews is on pace for one of his worst statistical seasons of his career, but maybe this exactly the player the Toronto Maple Leafs need?
Watching Matthews score 60 goals and then 69 goals in two out of three seasons was one of the biggest highlights of the past 50 years in Leafs history, as he set records, won multiple awards, but what did they really accomplish? The Leafs failed to make it past the second round of the playoffs and Matthews' goal pace wasn't sustainable, making it feel like a wasted opportunity.
However, as we look back at those remarkable years, is it possible that he peaked? Or is it possible that Matthews might not be the greatest goal-scorer of his generation and that he's built as a 30-40 goal player instead? Well if you bleed blue, that might not actually be the worst thing in the world, as ESPN's John Buccigross' prediction back in 2016 might be coming true.
After the Leafs won the 2016 NHL Draft Lottery, Bucigross wrote an article titled "Seriously, Leafs fans: Top prospect Auston Matthews could be the next Jonathan Toews." As a huge Leafs fan and someone who was working with the organization at the time, I vividly remember reading this at the time and thinking that Toronto could have the future Toews with Matthews and Patrick Kane with Mitch Marner, which enevedibly meant that Stanley Cup rings would follow very soon.
That prediction never came true as those two never elevated their game in the playoffs, but what if Matthews has just been Toews all this time and head coach Craig Berube is finally getting that out of him? When the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft was selected by the Leafs, he wasn't pegged as the next Alex Ovechkin (who he shares a birthday with), but was compared more to Anze Kopitar, Patrice Bergeon and obviously Toews who we previously mentioned.
Matthews's down year is actually a benefit to the future of the Leafs
If you're a Kings, Bruins or Blackhawks fan, you couldn't care less that those three players never won a Hart or Rocket Richard Trophy. However, you do care that they were consistent leaders year-after-year and helped their team's win a championship, or some cases, multiple.
Although Matthews has never won the Selke Award like those three players mentioned, he has been nominated, so he's right in the conversation. Matthews doesn't need to score 60 goals per season to be a future Hall-of-Famer, but instead needs Stanley Cup's to get there. He's at a point now that he'll probably make that class eventually, but he can be a 35 goal scorer and 75 point player for the rest of his career, as long as this team wins, which I think they will if he plays that way.
Over the past 13 games, the Leafs have allowed three goals or less 10 times, which is a great spot to be in, as compared to their start. They also have a 6-4-3 record during that stretch, which isn't amazing but they've been playing a structure that is much better, despite having a ton of injuries to their blue-line and a roster that doesn't have much offensive firepower outside of John Tavares, William Nylander and Matthews Knies.
The Leafs are a top-heavy team, so in theory they do desperately need his offense to outscore opponents, but GM Brad Treliving needs to recognize that this team is better off with him playing a shutdown defensive role, scoring every other night (instead of every night) and getting ready for the playoffs.
If Matthews can build his game more consistently around Kopitar, Toews and Bergeron, it will give the team a better chance at winning in the playoffs, instead of looking at him to score 25 goals in 25 playoff games. As a result, Treliving has a lot of work to do to make a more balanced roster, but hopefully he can recognize Buccigross' prediction 10 years ago so that he doesn't waste the next 10 years of Matthews' career.