The Toronto Maple Leafs have a lot to like about their start to the 2024-2025 season. Despite a couple of uninspiring home losses leading into the holiday break, Toronto remains in a battle with the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers for first place in the Atlantic Division.
The biggest cloud threatening the sunny prospect of a Maple Leafs first-place finish is the status of star center Auston Matthews. During the Leafs most recent victory, a win over the hapless Buffalo Sabres on Dec. 20th, a combination of hits and a hard cross-check, resulted in Matthews being shelved with more upper body issues.
Earlier in the season, Matthews missed nine games with an injury that has hindered him since training camp. During that absence, the Leafs won seven of nine games.
In the back-to-back losses against the New York Islanders and Winnipeg Jets, the Leafs missed the presence of their best player. The Jets top players, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, dominated without having to deal with Matthews. It presents a conundrum for the Maple Leafs as the season's unofficial second half begins.
Auston Matthews, Not the Maple Leafs, Should Decide his 4 Nations Participation
The Leafs resume their schedule with another back-to-back set of games on Friday in Detroit, followed by a home game against the Washington Capitals.
Since the Maple Leafs will not hold a practice before either of those games, Matthews will likely miss at least two more games. After that, the intrigue around number 34's injury status will heighten.
To some, it's a foregone conclusion that Matthews should sit out as many games as necessary to overcome his injury and be healthy for the stretch run of the season and the playoffs.
After all, the Maple Leafs are paying Matthews more than $13 million per year, and the team's success in the postseason matters most. Also, Matthews' play has been below his usual standard for much of the season.
Sitting Matthews would be a prudent decision, but there is more to consider. The Maple Leafs have historically performed well without Matthews in the lineup, a 42-23-2 record.
Those numbers are likely to regress to the mean. Regardless of the sport, a team missing its best player will eventually suffer in performance. It has already started for the Leafs with their two lackluster performances before the holiday break.
Another prolonged absence of Matthews from the lineup and the Leafs are unlikely to stay in touch with the Panthers for first place in the division. In all of their recent years of postseason misery, the Maple Leafs have yet to enter the playoffs with the advantages that come with a division title (notwithstanding the Covid-created North Division of 2020-2021).
Fighting for a division title is worthwhile in a wide-open Eastern Conference. There are no dominant teams and the Leafs have improved their defense and goaltending from previous seasons.
The relationship between Matthews and the Maple Leafs is the most important reason why general manager Brad Treliving should allow his best player to make the call on his participation in the 4 Nations Tournament.
Matthews, and many other NHL stars, have been longing for the chance to represent their country. The NHL has not participated in the last two Olympic games. The 2016 World Cup, was the last big international competition, outside of the annual World Hockey Championships, which is a lesser event in the eyes of most players.
At a minimum, denying Matthews the chance to play for his country will strain the relationship between the Leafs and their newly-appointed captain. At worst, it will alienate the team's best player from management.
In his new role as captain, Matthews also probably wants to set an example to his teammates of doing everything possible to be in the lineup.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Auston Matthews have much to discuss and decide over the upcoming weeks. One thing is for certain. It's Matthews who should ultimately decide on his return to the lineup and his participation in the 4 Nations Tournament.